Rainfall, temperature, and Classic Maya conflict: A comparison of hypotheses using Bayesian time-series analysis.

Studies published over the last decade have reached contrasting conclusions regarding the impact of climate change on conflict among the Classic Maya (ca. 250-900 CE). Some researchers have argued that rainfall declines exacerbated conflict in this civilisation. However, other researchers have found...

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Autores principales:	Mark Collard, W Christopher Carleton, David A Campbell
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/c5f86513a7304d1393c42e86db75c9dc
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:c5f86513a7304d1393c42e86db75c9dc2021-12-02T20:04:46ZRainfall, temperature, and Classic Maya conflict: A comparison of hypotheses using Bayesian time-series analysis.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0253043https://doaj.org/article/c5f86513a7304d1393c42e86db75c9dc2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253043https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Studies published over the last decade have reached contrasting conclusions regarding the impact of climate change on conflict among the Classic Maya (ca. 250-900 CE). Some researchers have argued that rainfall declines exacerbated conflict in this civilisation. However, other researchers have found that the relevant climate variable was increasing summer temperatures and not decreasing rainfall. The goal of the study reported here was to test between these two hypotheses. To do so, we collated annually-resolved conflict and climate data, and then subjected them to a recently developed Bayesian method for analysing count-based times-series. The results indicated that increasing summer temperature exacerbated conflict while annual rainfall variation had no effect. This finding not only has important implications for our understanding of conflict in the Maya region during the Classic Period. It also contributes to the ongoing discussion about the likely impact of contemporary climate change on conflict levels. Specifically, when our finding is placed alongside the results of other studies that have examined temperature and conflict over the long term, it is clear that the impact of climate change on conflict is context dependent.Mark CollardW Christopher CarletonDavid A CampbellPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 7, p e0253043 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Mark Collard W Christopher Carleton David A Campbell Rainfall, temperature, and Classic Maya conflict: A comparison of hypotheses using Bayesian time-series analysis.
description	Studies published over the last decade have reached contrasting conclusions regarding the impact of climate change on conflict among the Classic Maya (ca. 250-900 CE). Some researchers have argued that rainfall declines exacerbated conflict in this civilisation. However, other researchers have found that the relevant climate variable was increasing summer temperatures and not decreasing rainfall. The goal of the study reported here was to test between these two hypotheses. To do so, we collated annually-resolved conflict and climate data, and then subjected them to a recently developed Bayesian method for analysing count-based times-series. The results indicated that increasing summer temperature exacerbated conflict while annual rainfall variation had no effect. This finding not only has important implications for our understanding of conflict in the Maya region during the Classic Period. It also contributes to the ongoing discussion about the likely impact of contemporary climate change on conflict levels. Specifically, when our finding is placed alongside the results of other studies that have examined temperature and conflict over the long term, it is clear that the impact of climate change on conflict is context dependent.
format	article
author	Mark Collard W Christopher Carleton David A Campbell
author_facet	Mark Collard W Christopher Carleton David A Campbell
author_sort	Mark Collard
title	Rainfall, temperature, and Classic Maya conflict: A comparison of hypotheses using Bayesian time-series analysis.
title_short	Rainfall, temperature, and Classic Maya conflict: A comparison of hypotheses using Bayesian time-series analysis.
title_full	Rainfall, temperature, and Classic Maya conflict: A comparison of hypotheses using Bayesian time-series analysis.
title_fullStr	Rainfall, temperature, and Classic Maya conflict: A comparison of hypotheses using Bayesian time-series analysis.
title_full_unstemmed	Rainfall, temperature, and Classic Maya conflict: A comparison of hypotheses using Bayesian time-series analysis.
title_sort	rainfall, temperature, and classic maya conflict: a comparison of hypotheses using bayesian time-series analysis.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/c5f86513a7304d1393c42e86db75c9dc
work_keys_str_mv	AT markcollard rainfalltemperatureandclassicmayaconflictacomparisonofhypothesesusingbayesiantimeseriesanalysis AT wchristophercarleton rainfalltemperatureandclassicmayaconflictacomparisonofhypothesesusingbayesiantimeseriesanalysis AT davidacampbell rainfalltemperatureandclassicmayaconflictacomparisonofhypothesesusingbayesiantimeseriesanalysis
_version_	1718375567455158272

Rainfall, temperature, and Classic Maya conflict: A comparison of hypotheses using Bayesian time-series analysis.

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