The impact of resources for clinical surveillance on the control of a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Denmark.

The objectives of this study were to assess whether current surveillance capacity is sufficient to fulfill EU and Danish regulations to control a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Denmark, and whether enlarging the protection and/or surveillance zones could minimize economic loss...

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Autores principales:	Tariq Halasa, Anette Boklund
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2014
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/c65ed70d0c304fb6afec3dbee2684f0e
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:c65ed70d0c304fb6afec3dbee2684f0e2021-11-25T06:08:50ZThe impact of resources for clinical surveillance on the control of a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Denmark.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0102480https://doaj.org/article/c65ed70d0c304fb6afec3dbee2684f0e2014-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/25014351/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203The objectives of this study were to assess whether current surveillance capacity is sufficient to fulfill EU and Danish regulations to control a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Denmark, and whether enlarging the protection and/or surveillance zones could minimize economic losses. The stochastic spatial simulation model DTU-DADS was further developed to simulate clinical surveillance of herds within the protection and surveillance zones and used to model spread of FMD between herds. A queuing system was included in the model, and based on daily surveillance capacity, which was 450 herds per day, it was decided whether herds appointed for surveillance would be surveyed on the current day or added to the queue. The model was run with a basic scenario representing the EU and Danish regulations, which includes a 3 km protection and 10 km surveillance zone around detected herds. In alternative scenarios, the protection zone was enlarged to 5 km, the surveillance zone was enlarged to 15 or 20 km, or a combined enlargement of the protection and surveillance zones was modelled. Sensitivity analysis included changing surveillance capacity to 200, 350 or 600 herds per day, frequency of repeated visits for herds in overlapping surveillance zones from every 14 days to every 7, 21 and 30 days, and the size of the zones combined with a surveillance capacity increased to 600 herds per day. The results showed that the default surveillance capacity is sufficient to survey herds on time. Extra resources for surveillance did not improve the situation, but fewer resources could result in larger epidemics and costs. Enlarging the protection zone was a better strategy than the basic scenario. Despite that enlarging the surveillance zone might result in shorter epidemic duration, and lower number of affected herds, it resulted frequently in larger economic losses.Tariq HalasaAnette BoklundPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 9, Iss 7, p e102480 (2014)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Tariq Halasa Anette Boklund The impact of resources for clinical surveillance on the control of a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Denmark.
description	The objectives of this study were to assess whether current surveillance capacity is sufficient to fulfill EU and Danish regulations to control a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Denmark, and whether enlarging the protection and/or surveillance zones could minimize economic losses. The stochastic spatial simulation model DTU-DADS was further developed to simulate clinical surveillance of herds within the protection and surveillance zones and used to model spread of FMD between herds. A queuing system was included in the model, and based on daily surveillance capacity, which was 450 herds per day, it was decided whether herds appointed for surveillance would be surveyed on the current day or added to the queue. The model was run with a basic scenario representing the EU and Danish regulations, which includes a 3 km protection and 10 km surveillance zone around detected herds. In alternative scenarios, the protection zone was enlarged to 5 km, the surveillance zone was enlarged to 15 or 20 km, or a combined enlargement of the protection and surveillance zones was modelled. Sensitivity analysis included changing surveillance capacity to 200, 350 or 600 herds per day, frequency of repeated visits for herds in overlapping surveillance zones from every 14 days to every 7, 21 and 30 days, and the size of the zones combined with a surveillance capacity increased to 600 herds per day. The results showed that the default surveillance capacity is sufficient to survey herds on time. Extra resources for surveillance did not improve the situation, but fewer resources could result in larger epidemics and costs. Enlarging the protection zone was a better strategy than the basic scenario. Despite that enlarging the surveillance zone might result in shorter epidemic duration, and lower number of affected herds, it resulted frequently in larger economic losses.
format	article
author	Tariq Halasa Anette Boklund
author_facet	Tariq Halasa Anette Boklund
author_sort	Tariq Halasa
title	The impact of resources for clinical surveillance on the control of a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Denmark.
title_short	The impact of resources for clinical surveillance on the control of a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Denmark.
title_full	The impact of resources for clinical surveillance on the control of a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Denmark.
title_fullStr	The impact of resources for clinical surveillance on the control of a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Denmark.
title_full_unstemmed	The impact of resources for clinical surveillance on the control of a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Denmark.
title_sort	impact of resources for clinical surveillance on the control of a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in denmark.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2014
url	https://doaj.org/article/c65ed70d0c304fb6afec3dbee2684f0e
work_keys_str_mv	AT tariqhalasa theimpactofresourcesforclinicalsurveillanceonthecontrolofahypotheticalfootandmouthdiseaseepidemicindenmark AT anetteboklund theimpactofresourcesforclinicalsurveillanceonthecontrolofahypotheticalfootandmouthdiseaseepidemicindenmark AT tariqhalasa impactofresourcesforclinicalsurveillanceonthecontrolofahypotheticalfootandmouthdiseaseepidemicindenmark AT anetteboklund impactofresourcesforclinicalsurveillanceonthecontrolofahypotheticalfootandmouthdiseaseepidemicindenmark
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The impact of resources for clinical surveillance on the control of a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Denmark.

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