Modelling digital and manual contact tracing for COVID-19. Are low uptakes and missed contacts deal-breakers?

Comprehensive testing schemes, followed by adequate contact tracing and isolation, represent the best public health interventions we can employ to reduce the impact of an ongoing epidemic when no or limited vaccine supplies are available and the implications of a full lockdown are to be avoided. How...

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Autores principales:	Andrei C Rusu, Rémi Emonet, Katayoun Farrahi
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/c71c674862ba45d09dee5f1ee182145a
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:c71c674862ba45d09dee5f1ee182145a2021-12-02T20:19:09ZModelling digital and manual contact tracing for COVID-19. Are low uptakes and missed contacts deal-breakers?1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0259969https://doaj.org/article/c71c674862ba45d09dee5f1ee182145a2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259969https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203Comprehensive testing schemes, followed by adequate contact tracing and isolation, represent the best public health interventions we can employ to reduce the impact of an ongoing epidemic when no or limited vaccine supplies are available and the implications of a full lockdown are to be avoided. However, the process of tracing can prove feckless for highly-contagious viruses such as SARS-CoV-2. The interview-based approaches often miss contacts and involve significant delays, while digital solutions can suffer from insufficient adoption rates or inadequate usage patterns. Here we present a novel way of modelling different contact tracing strategies, using a generalized multi-site mean-field model, which can naturally assess the impact of manual and digital approaches alike. Our methodology can readily be applied to any compartmental formulation, thus enabling the study of more complex pathogen dynamics. We use this technique to simulate a newly-defined epidemiological model, SEIR-T, and show that, given the right conditions, tracing in a COVID-19 epidemic can be effective even when digital uptakes are sub-optimal or interviewers miss a fair proportion of the contacts.Andrei C RusuRémi EmonetKatayoun FarrahiPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 11, p e0259969 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Andrei C Rusu Rémi Emonet Katayoun Farrahi Modelling digital and manual contact tracing for COVID-19. Are low uptakes and missed contacts deal-breakers?
description	Comprehensive testing schemes, followed by adequate contact tracing and isolation, represent the best public health interventions we can employ to reduce the impact of an ongoing epidemic when no or limited vaccine supplies are available and the implications of a full lockdown are to be avoided. However, the process of tracing can prove feckless for highly-contagious viruses such as SARS-CoV-2. The interview-based approaches often miss contacts and involve significant delays, while digital solutions can suffer from insufficient adoption rates or inadequate usage patterns. Here we present a novel way of modelling different contact tracing strategies, using a generalized multi-site mean-field model, which can naturally assess the impact of manual and digital approaches alike. Our methodology can readily be applied to any compartmental formulation, thus enabling the study of more complex pathogen dynamics. We use this technique to simulate a newly-defined epidemiological model, SEIR-T, and show that, given the right conditions, tracing in a COVID-19 epidemic can be effective even when digital uptakes are sub-optimal or interviewers miss a fair proportion of the contacts.
format	article
author	Andrei C Rusu Rémi Emonet Katayoun Farrahi
author_facet	Andrei C Rusu Rémi Emonet Katayoun Farrahi
author_sort	Andrei C Rusu
title	Modelling digital and manual contact tracing for COVID-19. Are low uptakes and missed contacts deal-breakers?
title_short	Modelling digital and manual contact tracing for COVID-19. Are low uptakes and missed contacts deal-breakers?
title_full	Modelling digital and manual contact tracing for COVID-19. Are low uptakes and missed contacts deal-breakers?
title_fullStr	Modelling digital and manual contact tracing for COVID-19. Are low uptakes and missed contacts deal-breakers?
title_full_unstemmed	Modelling digital and manual contact tracing for COVID-19. Are low uptakes and missed contacts deal-breakers?
title_sort	modelling digital and manual contact tracing for covid-19. are low uptakes and missed contacts deal-breakers?
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/c71c674862ba45d09dee5f1ee182145a
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Modelling digital and manual contact tracing for COVID-19. Are low uptakes and missed contacts deal-breakers?

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