A non-stationary relationship between global climate phenomena and human plague incidence in Madagascar.

<h4>Background</h4>Plague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, is found in Asia and the Americas, but predominantly in Africa, with the island of Madagascar reporting almost one third of human cases worldwide. Plague's occurrence is affected by local climate factors which in turn...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Katharina S Kreppel, Cyril Caminade, Sandra Telfer, Minoarison Rajerison, Lila Rahalison, Andy Morse, Matthew Baylis
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2014
Materias:	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/c77ee3fa86204c9fa1e43c991a7becfe
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:c77ee3fa86204c9fa1e43c991a7becfe
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:c77ee3fa86204c9fa1e43c991a7becfe2021-11-25T06:31:56ZA non-stationary relationship between global climate phenomena and human plague incidence in Madagascar.1935-27271935-273510.1371/journal.pntd.0003155https://doaj.org/article/c77ee3fa86204c9fa1e43c991a7becfe2014-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003155https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735<h4>Background</h4>Plague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, is found in Asia and the Americas, but predominantly in Africa, with the island of Madagascar reporting almost one third of human cases worldwide. Plague's occurrence is affected by local climate factors which in turn are influenced by large-scale climate phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The effects of ENSO on regional climate are often enhanced or reduced by a second large-scale climate phenomenon, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). It is known that ENSO and the IOD interact as drivers of disease. Yet the impacts of these phenomena in driving plague dynamics via their effect on regional climate, and specifically contributing to the foci of transmission on Madagascar, are unknown. Here we present the first analysis of the effects of ENSO and IOD on plague in Madagascar.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>We use a forty-eight year monthly time-series of reported human plague cases from 1960 to 2008. Using wavelet analysis, we show that over the last fifty years there have been complex non-stationary associations between ENSO/IOD and the dynamics of plague in Madagascar. We demonstrate that ENSO and IOD influence temperature in Madagascar and that temperature and plague cycles are associated. The effects on plague appear to be mediated more by temperature, but precipitation also undoubtedly influences plague in Madagascar. Our results confirm a relationship between plague anomalies and an increase in the intensity of ENSO events and precipitation.<h4>Conclusions/significance</h4>This work widens the understanding of how climate factors acting over different temporal scales can combine to drive local disease dynamics. Given the association of increasing ENSO strength and plague anomalies in Madagascar it may in future be possible to forecast plague outbreaks in Madagascar. The study gives insight into the complex and changing relationship between climate factors and plague in Madagascar.Katharina S KreppelCyril CaminadeSandra TelferMinoarison RajerisonLila RahalisonAndy MorseMatthew BaylisPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleArctic medicine. Tropical medicineRC955-962Public aspects of medicineRA1-1270ENPLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 8, Iss 10, p e3155 (2014)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
spellingShingle	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Katharina S Kreppel Cyril Caminade Sandra Telfer Minoarison Rajerison Lila Rahalison Andy Morse Matthew Baylis A non-stationary relationship between global climate phenomena and human plague incidence in Madagascar.
description	<h4>Background</h4>Plague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, is found in Asia and the Americas, but predominantly in Africa, with the island of Madagascar reporting almost one third of human cases worldwide. Plague's occurrence is affected by local climate factors which in turn are influenced by large-scale climate phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The effects of ENSO on regional climate are often enhanced or reduced by a second large-scale climate phenomenon, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). It is known that ENSO and the IOD interact as drivers of disease. Yet the impacts of these phenomena in driving plague dynamics via their effect on regional climate, and specifically contributing to the foci of transmission on Madagascar, are unknown. Here we present the first analysis of the effects of ENSO and IOD on plague in Madagascar.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>We use a forty-eight year monthly time-series of reported human plague cases from 1960 to 2008. Using wavelet analysis, we show that over the last fifty years there have been complex non-stationary associations between ENSO/IOD and the dynamics of plague in Madagascar. We demonstrate that ENSO and IOD influence temperature in Madagascar and that temperature and plague cycles are associated. The effects on plague appear to be mediated more by temperature, but precipitation also undoubtedly influences plague in Madagascar. Our results confirm a relationship between plague anomalies and an increase in the intensity of ENSO events and precipitation.<h4>Conclusions/significance</h4>This work widens the understanding of how climate factors acting over different temporal scales can combine to drive local disease dynamics. Given the association of increasing ENSO strength and plague anomalies in Madagascar it may in future be possible to forecast plague outbreaks in Madagascar. The study gives insight into the complex and changing relationship between climate factors and plague in Madagascar.
format	article
author	Katharina S Kreppel Cyril Caminade Sandra Telfer Minoarison Rajerison Lila Rahalison Andy Morse Matthew Baylis
author_facet	Katharina S Kreppel Cyril Caminade Sandra Telfer Minoarison Rajerison Lila Rahalison Andy Morse Matthew Baylis
author_sort	Katharina S Kreppel
title	A non-stationary relationship between global climate phenomena and human plague incidence in Madagascar.
title_short	A non-stationary relationship between global climate phenomena and human plague incidence in Madagascar.
title_full	A non-stationary relationship between global climate phenomena and human plague incidence in Madagascar.
title_fullStr	A non-stationary relationship between global climate phenomena and human plague incidence in Madagascar.
title_full_unstemmed	A non-stationary relationship between global climate phenomena and human plague incidence in Madagascar.
title_sort	non-stationary relationship between global climate phenomena and human plague incidence in madagascar.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2014
url	https://doaj.org/article/c77ee3fa86204c9fa1e43c991a7becfe
work_keys_str_mv	AT katharinaskreppel anonstationaryrelationshipbetweenglobalclimatephenomenaandhumanplagueincidenceinmadagascar AT cyrilcaminade anonstationaryrelationshipbetweenglobalclimatephenomenaandhumanplagueincidenceinmadagascar AT sandratelfer anonstationaryrelationshipbetweenglobalclimatephenomenaandhumanplagueincidenceinmadagascar AT minoarisonrajerison anonstationaryrelationshipbetweenglobalclimatephenomenaandhumanplagueincidenceinmadagascar AT lilarahalison anonstationaryrelationshipbetweenglobalclimatephenomenaandhumanplagueincidenceinmadagascar AT andymorse anonstationaryrelationshipbetweenglobalclimatephenomenaandhumanplagueincidenceinmadagascar AT matthewbaylis anonstationaryrelationshipbetweenglobalclimatephenomenaandhumanplagueincidenceinmadagascar AT katharinaskreppel nonstationaryrelationshipbetweenglobalclimatephenomenaandhumanplagueincidenceinmadagascar AT cyrilcaminade nonstationaryrelationshipbetweenglobalclimatephenomenaandhumanplagueincidenceinmadagascar AT sandratelfer nonstationaryrelationshipbetweenglobalclimatephenomenaandhumanplagueincidenceinmadagascar AT minoarisonrajerison nonstationaryrelationshipbetweenglobalclimatephenomenaandhumanplagueincidenceinmadagascar AT lilarahalison nonstationaryrelationshipbetweenglobalclimatephenomenaandhumanplagueincidenceinmadagascar AT andymorse nonstationaryrelationshipbetweenglobalclimatephenomenaandhumanplagueincidenceinmadagascar AT matthewbaylis nonstationaryrelationshipbetweenglobalclimatephenomenaandhumanplagueincidenceinmadagascar
_version_	1718413709575979008

A non-stationary relationship between global climate phenomena and human plague incidence in Madagascar.

Ejemplares similares