Driven to the edge: Species distribution modeling of a Clawed Salamander (Hynobiidae: Onychodactylus koreanus) predicts range shifts and drastic decrease of suitable habitats in response to climate change
Abstract Climate change is one of the major threats to global amphibian diversity, and consequently, the species distribution is expected to shift considerably in the future. Therefore, predicting such shifts is important to guide conservation and management plans. Here, we used eight independent en...
Guardado en:
| Autores principales: | , , |
|---|---|
| Formato: | article |
| Lenguaje: | EN |
| Publicado: |
Wiley
2021
|
| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://doaj.org/article/c782aad8dd61405392eeca6e35f67939 |
| Etiquetas: |
Agregar Etiqueta
Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!
|
| id |
oai:doaj.org-article:c782aad8dd61405392eeca6e35f67939 |
|---|---|
| record_format |
dspace |
| spelling |
oai:doaj.org-article:c782aad8dd61405392eeca6e35f679392021-11-08T17:10:40ZDriven to the edge: Species distribution modeling of a Clawed Salamander (Hynobiidae: Onychodactylus koreanus) predicts range shifts and drastic decrease of suitable habitats in response to climate change2045-775810.1002/ece3.8155https://doaj.org/article/c782aad8dd61405392eeca6e35f679392021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.8155https://doaj.org/toc/2045-7758Abstract Climate change is one of the major threats to global amphibian diversity, and consequently, the species distribution is expected to shift considerably in the future. Therefore, predicting such shifts is important to guide conservation and management plans. Here, we used eight independent environmental variables and four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to model the current and future habitat suitability of the Korean clawed salamander (Onychodactylus koreanus) and then defined the dispersal limits of the species using cost distance analysis. The current habitat suitability model generated using the maximum entropy algorithm was highly consistent with the known distribution of the species and had good predictive performance. Projections onto years 2050 and 2070 predicted a drastic decrease of habitat suitability across all RCPs, with up to 90.1% decrease of suitable area and 98.0% decrease of optimal area predicted from binary presence grids. The models also predicted a northeastward shift of habitat suitability toward high‐elevation areas and a persistence of suitability along the central ridge of the Baekdudaegan Range. This area is likely to become a climatic refugium for the species in the future, and it should be considered as an area of conservation priority. Therefore, we urge further ecological studies and population monitoring to be conducted across the range of O. koreanus. The vulnerability to rapid climate change is also shared by other congeneric species, and assessing the impacts of climate change on these other species is needed to better conserve this unique lineage of salamanders.Yucheol ShinMi‐Sook MinAmaël BorzéeWileyarticleamphibianclimate changeKorean PeninsulaOnychodactylusSalamanderEcologyQH540-549.5ENEcology and Evolution, Vol 11, Iss 21, Pp 14669-14688 (2021) |
| institution |
DOAJ |
| collection |
DOAJ |
| language |
EN |
| topic |
amphibian climate change Korean Peninsula Onychodactylus Salamander Ecology QH540-549.5 |
| spellingShingle |
amphibian climate change Korean Peninsula Onychodactylus Salamander Ecology QH540-549.5 Yucheol Shin Mi‐Sook Min Amaël Borzée Driven to the edge: Species distribution modeling of a Clawed Salamander (Hynobiidae: Onychodactylus koreanus) predicts range shifts and drastic decrease of suitable habitats in response to climate change |
| description |
Abstract Climate change is one of the major threats to global amphibian diversity, and consequently, the species distribution is expected to shift considerably in the future. Therefore, predicting such shifts is important to guide conservation and management plans. Here, we used eight independent environmental variables and four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to model the current and future habitat suitability of the Korean clawed salamander (Onychodactylus koreanus) and then defined the dispersal limits of the species using cost distance analysis. The current habitat suitability model generated using the maximum entropy algorithm was highly consistent with the known distribution of the species and had good predictive performance. Projections onto years 2050 and 2070 predicted a drastic decrease of habitat suitability across all RCPs, with up to 90.1% decrease of suitable area and 98.0% decrease of optimal area predicted from binary presence grids. The models also predicted a northeastward shift of habitat suitability toward high‐elevation areas and a persistence of suitability along the central ridge of the Baekdudaegan Range. This area is likely to become a climatic refugium for the species in the future, and it should be considered as an area of conservation priority. Therefore, we urge further ecological studies and population monitoring to be conducted across the range of O. koreanus. The vulnerability to rapid climate change is also shared by other congeneric species, and assessing the impacts of climate change on these other species is needed to better conserve this unique lineage of salamanders. |
| format |
article |
| author |
Yucheol Shin Mi‐Sook Min Amaël Borzée |
| author_facet |
Yucheol Shin Mi‐Sook Min Amaël Borzée |
| author_sort |
Yucheol Shin |
| title |
Driven to the edge: Species distribution modeling of a Clawed Salamander (Hynobiidae: Onychodactylus koreanus) predicts range shifts and drastic decrease of suitable habitats in response to climate change |
| title_short |
Driven to the edge: Species distribution modeling of a Clawed Salamander (Hynobiidae: Onychodactylus koreanus) predicts range shifts and drastic decrease of suitable habitats in response to climate change |
| title_full |
Driven to the edge: Species distribution modeling of a Clawed Salamander (Hynobiidae: Onychodactylus koreanus) predicts range shifts and drastic decrease of suitable habitats in response to climate change |
| title_fullStr |
Driven to the edge: Species distribution modeling of a Clawed Salamander (Hynobiidae: Onychodactylus koreanus) predicts range shifts and drastic decrease of suitable habitats in response to climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Driven to the edge: Species distribution modeling of a Clawed Salamander (Hynobiidae: Onychodactylus koreanus) predicts range shifts and drastic decrease of suitable habitats in response to climate change |
| title_sort |
driven to the edge: species distribution modeling of a clawed salamander (hynobiidae: onychodactylus koreanus) predicts range shifts and drastic decrease of suitable habitats in response to climate change |
| publisher |
Wiley |
| publishDate |
2021 |
| url |
https://doaj.org/article/c782aad8dd61405392eeca6e35f67939 |
| work_keys_str_mv |
AT yucheolshin driventotheedgespeciesdistributionmodelingofaclawedsalamanderhynobiidaeonychodactyluskoreanuspredictsrangeshiftsanddrasticdecreaseofsuitablehabitatsinresponsetoclimatechange AT misookmin driventotheedgespeciesdistributionmodelingofaclawedsalamanderhynobiidaeonychodactyluskoreanuspredictsrangeshiftsanddrasticdecreaseofsuitablehabitatsinresponsetoclimatechange AT amaelborzee driventotheedgespeciesdistributionmodelingofaclawedsalamanderhynobiidaeonychodactyluskoreanuspredictsrangeshiftsanddrasticdecreaseofsuitablehabitatsinresponsetoclimatechange |
| _version_ |
1718441516150554624 |