Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease

Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease

Newly emerged pathogens are inherently difficult to forecast, due to many unknowns about their biology early in an epidemic. Here, the authors assess forecasts of a suite of models during the Zika epidemic in Colombia, finding that the models that performed best changed over the course of the epidem...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Rachel J. Oidtman, Elisa Omodei, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela, Erica Cruz-Rivera, Sandra Misnaza-Castrillón, Myriam Patricia Cifuentes, Luz Emilse Rincon, Viviana Cañon, Pedro de Alarcon, Guido España, John H. Huber, Sarah C. Hill, Christopher M. Barker, Michael A. Johansson, Carrie A. Manore, Robert C. Reiner, Jr., Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer, Amir S. Siraj, Enrique Frias-Martinez, Manuel García-Herranz, T. Alex Perkins
Formato: article
Lenguaje:EN
Publicado: Nature Portfolio 2021
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Science
Q
Acceso en línea:https://doaj.org/article/c817814baca3456fbcbefb36156a6489
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Sumario:Newly emerged pathogens are inherently difficult to forecast, due to many unknowns about their biology early in an epidemic. Here, the authors assess forecasts of a suite of models during the Zika epidemic in Colombia, finding that the models that performed best changed over the course of the epidemic.

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