Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease

Newly emerged pathogens are inherently difficult to forecast, due to many unknowns about their biology early in an epidemic. Here, the authors assess forecasts of a suite of models during the Zika epidemic in Colombia, finding that the models that performed best changed over the course of the epidem...

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Autores principales:	Rachel J. Oidtman, Elisa Omodei, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela, Erica Cruz-Rivera, Sandra Misnaza-Castrillón, Myriam Patricia Cifuentes, Luz Emilse Rincon, Viviana Cañon, Pedro de Alarcon, Guido España, John H. Huber, Sarah C. Hill, Christopher M. Barker, Michael A. Johansson, Carrie A. Manore, Robert C. Reiner, Jr., Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer, Amir S. Siraj, Enrique Frias-Martinez, Manuel García-Herranz, T. Alex Perkins
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/c817814baca3456fbcbefb36156a6489
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:c817814baca3456fbcbefb36156a64892021-12-02T17:41:19ZTrade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease10.1038/s41467-021-25695-02041-1723https://doaj.org/article/c817814baca3456fbcbefb36156a64892021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25695-0https://doaj.org/toc/2041-1723Newly emerged pathogens are inherently difficult to forecast, due to many unknowns about their biology early in an epidemic. Here, the authors assess forecasts of a suite of models during the Zika epidemic in Colombia, finding that the models that performed best changed over the course of the epidemic.Rachel J. OidtmanElisa OmodeiMoritz U. G. KraemerCarlos A. Castañeda-OrjuelaErica Cruz-RiveraSandra Misnaza-CastrillónMyriam Patricia CifuentesLuz Emilse RinconViviana CañonPedro de AlarconGuido EspañaJohn H. HuberSarah C. HillChristopher M. BarkerMichael A. JohanssonCarrie A. ManoreRobert C. Reiner, Jr.Isabel Rodriguez-BarraquerAmir S. SirajEnrique Frias-MartinezManuel García-HerranzT. Alex PerkinsNature PortfolioarticleScienceQENNature Communications, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Science Q
spellingShingle	Science Q Rachel J. Oidtman Elisa Omodei Moritz U. G. Kraemer Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela Erica Cruz-Rivera Sandra Misnaza-Castrillón Myriam Patricia Cifuentes Luz Emilse Rincon Viviana Cañon Pedro de Alarcon Guido España John H. Huber Sarah C. Hill Christopher M. Barker Michael A. Johansson Carrie A. Manore Robert C. Reiner, Jr. Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer Amir S. Siraj Enrique Frias-Martinez Manuel García-Herranz T. Alex Perkins Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease
description	Newly emerged pathogens are inherently difficult to forecast, due to many unknowns about their biology early in an epidemic. Here, the authors assess forecasts of a suite of models during the Zika epidemic in Colombia, finding that the models that performed best changed over the course of the epidemic.
format	article
author	Rachel J. Oidtman Elisa Omodei Moritz U. G. Kraemer Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela Erica Cruz-Rivera Sandra Misnaza-Castrillón Myriam Patricia Cifuentes Luz Emilse Rincon Viviana Cañon Pedro de Alarcon Guido España John H. Huber Sarah C. Hill Christopher M. Barker Michael A. Johansson Carrie A. Manore Robert C. Reiner, Jr. Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer Amir S. Siraj Enrique Frias-Martinez Manuel García-Herranz T. Alex Perkins
author_facet	Rachel J. Oidtman Elisa Omodei Moritz U. G. Kraemer Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela Erica Cruz-Rivera Sandra Misnaza-Castrillón Myriam Patricia Cifuentes Luz Emilse Rincon Viviana Cañon Pedro de Alarcon Guido España John H. Huber Sarah C. Hill Christopher M. Barker Michael A. Johansson Carrie A. Manore Robert C. Reiner, Jr. Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer Amir S. Siraj Enrique Frias-Martinez Manuel García-Herranz T. Alex Perkins
author_sort	Rachel J. Oidtman
title	Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease
title_short	Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease
title_full	Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease
title_fullStr	Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease
title_full_unstemmed	Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease
title_sort	trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/c817814baca3456fbcbefb36156a6489
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Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease

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