Quantifying National-Scale Changes in Agricultural Land Exposure to Fluvial Flooding

This study quantifies the exposure of agricultural land in Aotearoa-New Zealand’s (A-NZ) flood hazard zones (FHZs). We developed a spatio-temporal flood exposure framework to quantify the extent of the area and yearly earnings before income and tax (EBIT) for arable, forestry, horticulture, sheep an...

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Autores principales:	Heather Craig, Ryan Paulik, Utkur Djanibekov, Patrick Walsh, Alec Wild, Benjamin Popovich
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	land use exposure flooding agriculture dairy farming economic exposure Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/c9e62ec9707e4843b324602e39bd104e
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:c9e62ec9707e4843b324602e39bd104e2021-11-25T19:01:33ZQuantifying National-Scale Changes in Agricultural Land Exposure to Fluvial Flooding10.3390/su1322124952071-1050https://doaj.org/article/c9e62ec9707e4843b324602e39bd104e2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/22/12495https://doaj.org/toc/2071-1050This study quantifies the exposure of agricultural land in Aotearoa-New Zealand’s (A-NZ) flood hazard zones (FHZs). We developed a spatio-temporal flood exposure framework to quantify the extent of the area and yearly earnings before income and tax (EBIT) for arable, forestry, horticulture, sheep and beef, and dairy land in FHZs between 1990 and 2016. In 1990, ~1.57 million hectares of agricultural land were exposed, decreasing slightly to ~1.50 million hectares by 2016. However, there was a change in the lower-value types of agricultural land uses being exposed, such as for sheep and beef farming and forestry, toward dairy farming (from ~364,000 hectares in FHZs in 2008 to ~471,000 hectares in 2016). Dairy farming is more intensively staffed with larger amounts of fixed assets, making them less resilient to flood impacts. Despite this, conversion to dairy farming even within the identified FHZs has been driven by the increasing profitability of the enterprise. As a result of both the production value change and land area increases, the dairy EBIT values within FHZs rose rapidly from NZD 382 million to NZD 1.25 billion between 2008 and 2012, creating significantly more economic exposure for A-NZ. This trend is particularly evident in the Southland, Canterbury, and Waikato regions. Similarly, in the Marlborough, Tasman, and Hawke’s Bay regions, there was an increase in high-value horticultural land—predominantly viticulture—in FHZs (a increase of NZD 321 million in annual EBIT for exposed horticulture across the three regions). Identifying sub-national trends in agricultural flood exposure allows for a detailed analysis of the likely impacts in high-risk areas, which can inform emergency management plans and mitigative actions that diminish the economic impacts from flood events.Heather CraigRyan PaulikUtkur DjanibekovPatrick WalshAlec WildBenjamin PopovichMDPI AGarticleland useexposurefloodingagriculturedairy farmingeconomic exposureEnvironmental effects of industries and plantsTD194-195Renewable energy sourcesTJ807-830Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENSustainability, Vol 13, Iss 12495, p 12495 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	land use exposure flooding agriculture dairy farming economic exposure Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	land use exposure flooding agriculture dairy farming economic exposure Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Heather Craig Ryan Paulik Utkur Djanibekov Patrick Walsh Alec Wild Benjamin Popovich Quantifying National-Scale Changes in Agricultural Land Exposure to Fluvial Flooding
description	This study quantifies the exposure of agricultural land in Aotearoa-New Zealand’s (A-NZ) flood hazard zones (FHZs). We developed a spatio-temporal flood exposure framework to quantify the extent of the area and yearly earnings before income and tax (EBIT) for arable, forestry, horticulture, sheep and beef, and dairy land in FHZs between 1990 and 2016. In 1990, ~1.57 million hectares of agricultural land were exposed, decreasing slightly to ~1.50 million hectares by 2016. However, there was a change in the lower-value types of agricultural land uses being exposed, such as for sheep and beef farming and forestry, toward dairy farming (from ~364,000 hectares in FHZs in 2008 to ~471,000 hectares in 2016). Dairy farming is more intensively staffed with larger amounts of fixed assets, making them less resilient to flood impacts. Despite this, conversion to dairy farming even within the identified FHZs has been driven by the increasing profitability of the enterprise. As a result of both the production value change and land area increases, the dairy EBIT values within FHZs rose rapidly from NZD 382 million to NZD 1.25 billion between 2008 and 2012, creating significantly more economic exposure for A-NZ. This trend is particularly evident in the Southland, Canterbury, and Waikato regions. Similarly, in the Marlborough, Tasman, and Hawke’s Bay regions, there was an increase in high-value horticultural land—predominantly viticulture—in FHZs (a increase of NZD 321 million in annual EBIT for exposed horticulture across the three regions). Identifying sub-national trends in agricultural flood exposure allows for a detailed analysis of the likely impacts in high-risk areas, which can inform emergency management plans and mitigative actions that diminish the economic impacts from flood events.
format	article
author	Heather Craig Ryan Paulik Utkur Djanibekov Patrick Walsh Alec Wild Benjamin Popovich
author_facet	Heather Craig Ryan Paulik Utkur Djanibekov Patrick Walsh Alec Wild Benjamin Popovich
author_sort	Heather Craig
title	Quantifying National-Scale Changes in Agricultural Land Exposure to Fluvial Flooding
title_short	Quantifying National-Scale Changes in Agricultural Land Exposure to Fluvial Flooding
title_full	Quantifying National-Scale Changes in Agricultural Land Exposure to Fluvial Flooding
title_fullStr	Quantifying National-Scale Changes in Agricultural Land Exposure to Fluvial Flooding
title_full_unstemmed	Quantifying National-Scale Changes in Agricultural Land Exposure to Fluvial Flooding
title_sort	quantifying national-scale changes in agricultural land exposure to fluvial flooding
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/c9e62ec9707e4843b324602e39bd104e
work_keys_str_mv	AT heathercraig quantifyingnationalscalechangesinagriculturallandexposuretofluvialflooding AT ryanpaulik quantifyingnationalscalechangesinagriculturallandexposuretofluvialflooding AT utkurdjanibekov quantifyingnationalscalechangesinagriculturallandexposuretofluvialflooding AT patrickwalsh quantifyingnationalscalechangesinagriculturallandexposuretofluvialflooding AT alecwild quantifyingnationalscalechangesinagriculturallandexposuretofluvialflooding AT benjaminpopovich quantifyingnationalscalechangesinagriculturallandexposuretofluvialflooding
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Quantifying National-Scale Changes in Agricultural Land Exposure to Fluvial Flooding

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