Influenza A gradual and epochal evolution: insights from simple models.

The recurrence of influenza A epidemics has originally been explained by a "continuous antigenic drift" scenario. Recently, it has been shown that if genetic drift is gradual, the evolution of influenza A main antigen, the haemagglutinin, is punctuated. As a consequence, it has been sugges...

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Autores principales:	Sébastien Ballesteros, Elisabeta Vergu, Bernard Cazelles
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2009
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/ca01f5d5f6c54b138b94346aa21db3d7
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ca01f5d5f6c54b138b94346aa21db3d72021-11-25T06:28:38ZInfluenza A gradual and epochal evolution: insights from simple models.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0007426https://doaj.org/article/ca01f5d5f6c54b138b94346aa21db3d72009-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/19841740/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203The recurrence of influenza A epidemics has originally been explained by a "continuous antigenic drift" scenario. Recently, it has been shown that if genetic drift is gradual, the evolution of influenza A main antigen, the haemagglutinin, is punctuated. As a consequence, it has been suggested that influenza A dynamics at the population level should be approximated by a serial model. Here, simple models are used to test whether a serial model requires gradual antigenic drift within groups of strains with the same antigenic properties (antigenic clusters). We compare the effect of status based and history based frameworks and the influence of reduced susceptibility and infectivity assumptions on the transient dynamics of antigenic clusters. Our results reveal that the replacement of a resident antigenic cluster by a mutant cluster, as observed in data, is reproduced only by the status based model integrating the reduced infectivity assumption. This combination of assumptions is useful to overcome the otherwise extremely high model dimensionality of models incorporating many strains, but relies on a biological hypothesis not obviously satisfied. Our findings finally suggest the dynamical importance of gradual antigenic drift even in the presence of punctuated immune escape. A more regular renewal of susceptible pool than the one implemented in a serial model should be part of a minimal theory for influenza at the population level.Sébastien BallesterosElisabeta VerguBernard CazellesPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 4, Iss 10, p e7426 (2009)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Sébastien Ballesteros Elisabeta Vergu Bernard Cazelles Influenza A gradual and epochal evolution: insights from simple models.
description	The recurrence of influenza A epidemics has originally been explained by a "continuous antigenic drift" scenario. Recently, it has been shown that if genetic drift is gradual, the evolution of influenza A main antigen, the haemagglutinin, is punctuated. As a consequence, it has been suggested that influenza A dynamics at the population level should be approximated by a serial model. Here, simple models are used to test whether a serial model requires gradual antigenic drift within groups of strains with the same antigenic properties (antigenic clusters). We compare the effect of status based and history based frameworks and the influence of reduced susceptibility and infectivity assumptions on the transient dynamics of antigenic clusters. Our results reveal that the replacement of a resident antigenic cluster by a mutant cluster, as observed in data, is reproduced only by the status based model integrating the reduced infectivity assumption. This combination of assumptions is useful to overcome the otherwise extremely high model dimensionality of models incorporating many strains, but relies on a biological hypothesis not obviously satisfied. Our findings finally suggest the dynamical importance of gradual antigenic drift even in the presence of punctuated immune escape. A more regular renewal of susceptible pool than the one implemented in a serial model should be part of a minimal theory for influenza at the population level.
format	article
author	Sébastien Ballesteros Elisabeta Vergu Bernard Cazelles
author_facet	Sébastien Ballesteros Elisabeta Vergu Bernard Cazelles
author_sort	Sébastien Ballesteros
title	Influenza A gradual and epochal evolution: insights from simple models.
title_short	Influenza A gradual and epochal evolution: insights from simple models.
title_full	Influenza A gradual and epochal evolution: insights from simple models.
title_fullStr	Influenza A gradual and epochal evolution: insights from simple models.
title_full_unstemmed	Influenza A gradual and epochal evolution: insights from simple models.
title_sort	influenza a gradual and epochal evolution: insights from simple models.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2009
url	https://doaj.org/article/ca01f5d5f6c54b138b94346aa21db3d7
work_keys_str_mv	AT sebastienballesteros influenzaagradualandepochalevolutioninsightsfromsimplemodels AT elisabetavergu influenzaagradualandepochalevolutioninsightsfromsimplemodels AT bernardcazelles influenzaagradualandepochalevolutioninsightsfromsimplemodels
_version_	1718413710384431104

Influenza A gradual and epochal evolution: insights from simple models.

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