Wavelike Character of Pension Reforms. First-wave 1994–2008

The article puts forward the hypothesis about the wave nature of pension systems reforms since the early 1990 under the effect of demographic and economic factors. In response to the results of previous works on this subject and statistical analysis results, wave’s mechanism has been identified. Con...

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Autor principal:	T. V. Zhukova
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN RU
Publicado:	Ассоциация независимых экспертов «Центр изучения кризисного общества» (in English: Association for independent experts “Center for Crisis Society Studies”) 2019
Materias:	pension systems, pension reforms, waves, cycles, macroeconomic shocks, structural reforms, parametric reforms International relations JZ2-6530
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/ca665b6dba5245ff90073987ecd55a77
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ca665b6dba5245ff90073987ecd55a772021-11-07T14:45:04ZWavelike Character of Pension Reforms. First-wave 1994–20082542-02402587-932410.23932/2542-0240-2019-12-6-6https://doaj.org/article/ca665b6dba5245ff90073987ecd55a772019-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ogt-journal.com/jour/article/view/547https://doaj.org/toc/2542-0240https://doaj.org/toc/2587-9324The article puts forward the hypothesis about the wave nature of pension systems reforms since the early 1990 under the effect of demographic and economic factors. In response to the results of previous works on this subject and statistical analysis results, wave’s mechanism has been identified. Conditions for starting the wave of pension reforms established with long-term demographic trend in periods of tension (the higher growth rates of age dependency ratio and others). The start and dynamic of the wave are determined by macroeconomic shocks arise from decreasing phase of business-cycle. The growth phase of pension reforms are followed by the period of deceleration. There is a factor that slowdowns responses to macroeconomic shocks (the decisions about pension reforms are not accepted instantly). Pension system adjusts to new conditions until further tightening. Quantitative and quality analysis of pension reforms across countries would allow to test this hypothesis. To that end an appropriate instruments have been developed: the classifier of pension reform (67 items with scoring system to estimate the depth of the changes), evaluation system for economic factors influences via sensitive to pension systems indicators and associated macroeconomic shocks. A cross-section of 24 countries generates a mix of pension reforms for the period of 1994–2019, two waves of pension reforms (1990–2008 and 2009 – present) is revealed, the hypothesis of waves nature of pension reforms is confirmed. The heart of pension systems transformations in the first way is identified. These are lowering of government pensions obligations, shifting the risks from state to population with the introduction of DCschemes. The suggestions that the implementation of second pillar is positive only for countries with well-developed financial market. The research of second-wave of pension reforms and projection of the third way will be dealt with in the next article.T. V. ZhukovaАссоциация независимых экспертов «Центр изучения кризисного общества» (in English: Association for independent experts “Center for Crisis Society Studies”)articlepension systems, pension reforms, waves, cycles, macroeconomic shocks, structural reforms, parametric reformsInternational relationsJZ2-6530ENRUКонтуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, право, Vol 12, Iss 6, Pp 130-151 (2019)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN RU
topic	pension systems, pension reforms, waves, cycles, macroeconomic shocks, structural reforms, parametric reforms International relations JZ2-6530
spellingShingle	pension systems, pension reforms, waves, cycles, macroeconomic shocks, structural reforms, parametric reforms International relations JZ2-6530 T. V. Zhukova Wavelike Character of Pension Reforms. First-wave 1994–2008
description	The article puts forward the hypothesis about the wave nature of pension systems reforms since the early 1990 under the effect of demographic and economic factors. In response to the results of previous works on this subject and statistical analysis results, wave’s mechanism has been identified. Conditions for starting the wave of pension reforms established with long-term demographic trend in periods of tension (the higher growth rates of age dependency ratio and others). The start and dynamic of the wave are determined by macroeconomic shocks arise from decreasing phase of business-cycle. The growth phase of pension reforms are followed by the period of deceleration. There is a factor that slowdowns responses to macroeconomic shocks (the decisions about pension reforms are not accepted instantly). Pension system adjusts to new conditions until further tightening. Quantitative and quality analysis of pension reforms across countries would allow to test this hypothesis. To that end an appropriate instruments have been developed: the classifier of pension reform (67 items with scoring system to estimate the depth of the changes), evaluation system for economic factors influences via sensitive to pension systems indicators and associated macroeconomic shocks. A cross-section of 24 countries generates a mix of pension reforms for the period of 1994–2019, two waves of pension reforms (1990–2008 and 2009 – present) is revealed, the hypothesis of waves nature of pension reforms is confirmed. The heart of pension systems transformations in the first way is identified. These are lowering of government pensions obligations, shifting the risks from state to population with the introduction of DCschemes. The suggestions that the implementation of second pillar is positive only for countries with well-developed financial market. The research of second-wave of pension reforms and projection of the third way will be dealt with in the next article.
format	article
author	T. V. Zhukova
author_facet	T. V. Zhukova
author_sort	T. V. Zhukova
title	Wavelike Character of Pension Reforms. First-wave 1994–2008
title_short	Wavelike Character of Pension Reforms. First-wave 1994–2008
title_full	Wavelike Character of Pension Reforms. First-wave 1994–2008
title_fullStr	Wavelike Character of Pension Reforms. First-wave 1994–2008
title_full_unstemmed	Wavelike Character of Pension Reforms. First-wave 1994–2008
title_sort	wavelike character of pension reforms. first-wave 1994–2008
publisher	Ассоциация независимых экспертов «Центр изучения кризисного общества» (in English: Association for independent experts “Center for Crisis Society Studies”)
publishDate	2019
url	https://doaj.org/article/ca665b6dba5245ff90073987ecd55a77
work_keys_str_mv	AT tvzhukova wavelikecharacterofpensionreformsfirstwave19942008
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Wavelike Character of Pension Reforms. First-wave 1994–2008

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