Superspreading of airborne pathogens in a heterogeneous world

Abstract Epidemics are regularly associated with reports of superspreading: single individuals infecting many others. How do we determine if such events are due to people inherently being biological superspreaders or simply due to random chance? We present an analytically solvable model for airborne...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Julius B. Kirkegaard, Joachim Mathiesen, Kim Sneppen
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/ca7f5063eb2f4d90bc557aca477edef6
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:ca7f5063eb2f4d90bc557aca477edef6
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ca7f5063eb2f4d90bc557aca477edef62021-12-02T16:53:12ZSuperspreading of airborne pathogens in a heterogeneous world10.1038/s41598-021-90666-w2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/ca7f5063eb2f4d90bc557aca477edef62021-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-90666-whttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Epidemics are regularly associated with reports of superspreading: single individuals infecting many others. How do we determine if such events are due to people inherently being biological superspreaders or simply due to random chance? We present an analytically solvable model for airborne diseases which reveal the spreading statistics of epidemics in socio-spatial heterogeneous spaces and provide a baseline to which data may be compared. In contrast to classical SIR models, we explicitly model social events where airborne pathogen transmission allows a single individual to infect many simultaneously, a key feature that generates distinctive output statistics. We find that diseases that have a short duration of high infectiousness can give extreme statistics such as 20% infecting more than 80%, depending on the socio-spatial heterogeneity. Quantifying this by a distribution over sizes of social gatherings, tracking data of social proximity for university students suggest that this can be a approximated by a power law. Finally, we study mitigation efforts applied to our model. We find that the effect of banning large gatherings works equally well for diseases with any duration of infectiousness, but depends strongly on socio-spatial heterogeneity.Julius B. KirkegaardJoachim MathiesenKim SneppenNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Julius B. Kirkegaard Joachim Mathiesen Kim Sneppen Superspreading of airborne pathogens in a heterogeneous world
description	Abstract Epidemics are regularly associated with reports of superspreading: single individuals infecting many others. How do we determine if such events are due to people inherently being biological superspreaders or simply due to random chance? We present an analytically solvable model for airborne diseases which reveal the spreading statistics of epidemics in socio-spatial heterogeneous spaces and provide a baseline to which data may be compared. In contrast to classical SIR models, we explicitly model social events where airborne pathogen transmission allows a single individual to infect many simultaneously, a key feature that generates distinctive output statistics. We find that diseases that have a short duration of high infectiousness can give extreme statistics such as 20% infecting more than 80%, depending on the socio-spatial heterogeneity. Quantifying this by a distribution over sizes of social gatherings, tracking data of social proximity for university students suggest that this can be a approximated by a power law. Finally, we study mitigation efforts applied to our model. We find that the effect of banning large gatherings works equally well for diseases with any duration of infectiousness, but depends strongly on socio-spatial heterogeneity.
format	article
author	Julius B. Kirkegaard Joachim Mathiesen Kim Sneppen
author_facet	Julius B. Kirkegaard Joachim Mathiesen Kim Sneppen
author_sort	Julius B. Kirkegaard
title	Superspreading of airborne pathogens in a heterogeneous world
title_short	Superspreading of airborne pathogens in a heterogeneous world
title_full	Superspreading of airborne pathogens in a heterogeneous world
title_fullStr	Superspreading of airborne pathogens in a heterogeneous world
title_full_unstemmed	Superspreading of airborne pathogens in a heterogeneous world
title_sort	superspreading of airborne pathogens in a heterogeneous world
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/ca7f5063eb2f4d90bc557aca477edef6
work_keys_str_mv	AT juliusbkirkegaard superspreadingofairbornepathogensinaheterogeneousworld AT joachimmathiesen superspreadingofairbornepathogensinaheterogeneousworld AT kimsneppen superspreadingofairbornepathogensinaheterogeneousworld
_version_	1718382886733742080

Superspreading of airborne pathogens in a heterogeneous world

Ejemplares similares