The projection of burden of disease in Islamic Republic of Iran to 2025.

<h4>Objective</h4>Iran as a developing country is in the transition phase, which might have a big impact on the Burden of Disease and Injury (BOD). This study aims to estimate Burden of Disease and Injury (BOD) in Iran up to 2025 due to four broad cause groups using Disability-Adjusted L...

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Autores principales:	Razieh Khajehkazemi, Behnam Sadeghirad, Mohammad Karamouzian, Mohammad-Sadegh Fallah, Mohammad-Hossien Mehrolhassani, Reza Dehnavieh, AliAkbar Haghdoost
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/ca805ab327ec43b8978178313584c3f1
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ca805ab327ec43b8978178313584c3f12021-11-18T08:50:37ZThe projection of burden of disease in Islamic Republic of Iran to 2025.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0076881https://doaj.org/article/ca805ab327ec43b8978178313584c3f12013-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/24146941/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203<h4>Objective</h4>Iran as a developing country is in the transition phase, which might have a big impact on the Burden of Disease and Injury (BOD). This study aims to estimate Burden of Disease and Injury (BOD) in Iran up to 2025 due to four broad cause groups using Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY).<h4>Methods</h4>The impacts of demographic and epidemiological changes on BOD (DemBOD and EpiBOD) were assessed separately. We estimated DemBOD in nine scenarios, using different projections for life expectancy and total fertility rate. EpiBOD was modeled in two scenarios as a proportion of DemBOD, based on the extracted parameters from an international study.<h4>Findings</h4>The BOD is projected to increase from 14.3 million in 2003 to 19.4 million in 2025 (95% uncertainty interval: 16.8, 21.9), which shows an overall increase of 35.3%. Non-communicable diseases (12.7 million DALY, 66.0%), injuries (4.6 million DALY, 24.0%), and communicable diseases, except HIV/AIDS (1.8 million DALY, 9%) will be the leading causes of losing healthy life. Under the most likely scenario, the maximum increase in disease burden due to DemBOD is projected to be observed in HIV/AIDS and Non-communicable diseases (63.9 and 62.4%, respectively) and due to EpiBOD in HIV/AIDS (319.5%).<h4>Conclusion</h4>It seems that in the following decades, BOD will have a sharp increase in Iran, mainly due to DemBOD. It seems that communicable diseases (except HIV/AIDS) will have less contribution, and especially non-communicable diseases will play a more significant role.Razieh KhajehkazemiBehnam SadeghiradMohammad KaramouzianMohammad-Sadegh FallahMohammad-Hossien MehrolhassaniReza DehnaviehAliAkbar HaghdoostPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 8, Iss 10, p e76881 (2013)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Razieh Khajehkazemi Behnam Sadeghirad Mohammad Karamouzian Mohammad-Sadegh Fallah Mohammad-Hossien Mehrolhassani Reza Dehnavieh AliAkbar Haghdoost The projection of burden of disease in Islamic Republic of Iran to 2025.
description	<h4>Objective</h4>Iran as a developing country is in the transition phase, which might have a big impact on the Burden of Disease and Injury (BOD). This study aims to estimate Burden of Disease and Injury (BOD) in Iran up to 2025 due to four broad cause groups using Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY).<h4>Methods</h4>The impacts of demographic and epidemiological changes on BOD (DemBOD and EpiBOD) were assessed separately. We estimated DemBOD in nine scenarios, using different projections for life expectancy and total fertility rate. EpiBOD was modeled in two scenarios as a proportion of DemBOD, based on the extracted parameters from an international study.<h4>Findings</h4>The BOD is projected to increase from 14.3 million in 2003 to 19.4 million in 2025 (95% uncertainty interval: 16.8, 21.9), which shows an overall increase of 35.3%. Non-communicable diseases (12.7 million DALY, 66.0%), injuries (4.6 million DALY, 24.0%), and communicable diseases, except HIV/AIDS (1.8 million DALY, 9%) will be the leading causes of losing healthy life. Under the most likely scenario, the maximum increase in disease burden due to DemBOD is projected to be observed in HIV/AIDS and Non-communicable diseases (63.9 and 62.4%, respectively) and due to EpiBOD in HIV/AIDS (319.5%).<h4>Conclusion</h4>It seems that in the following decades, BOD will have a sharp increase in Iran, mainly due to DemBOD. It seems that communicable diseases (except HIV/AIDS) will have less contribution, and especially non-communicable diseases will play a more significant role.
format	article
author	Razieh Khajehkazemi Behnam Sadeghirad Mohammad Karamouzian Mohammad-Sadegh Fallah Mohammad-Hossien Mehrolhassani Reza Dehnavieh AliAkbar Haghdoost
author_facet	Razieh Khajehkazemi Behnam Sadeghirad Mohammad Karamouzian Mohammad-Sadegh Fallah Mohammad-Hossien Mehrolhassani Reza Dehnavieh AliAkbar Haghdoost
author_sort	Razieh Khajehkazemi
title	The projection of burden of disease in Islamic Republic of Iran to 2025.
title_short	The projection of burden of disease in Islamic Republic of Iran to 2025.
title_full	The projection of burden of disease in Islamic Republic of Iran to 2025.
title_fullStr	The projection of burden of disease in Islamic Republic of Iran to 2025.
title_full_unstemmed	The projection of burden of disease in Islamic Republic of Iran to 2025.
title_sort	projection of burden of disease in islamic republic of iran to 2025.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2013
url	https://doaj.org/article/ca805ab327ec43b8978178313584c3f1
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The projection of burden of disease in Islamic Republic of Iran to 2025.

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