Estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies [version 2; peer review: 3 approved]

Background: The duration of immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is still uncertain, but it is of key clinical and epidemiological importance. Seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoV) have been circulating for longer and, therefore, may offer insights into the lon...

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Autores principales:	Eleanor M. Rees, Naomi R. Waterlow, Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group, Rachel Lowe, Adam J. Kucharski
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Wellcome 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/cac32fb1c896401aa428364d6e44ea46
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:cac32fb1c896401aa428364d6e44ea462021-11-29T14:03:51ZEstimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies [version 2; peer review: 3 approved]2398-502X10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16701.2https://doaj.org/article/cac32fb1c896401aa428364d6e44ea462021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/6-138/v2https://doaj.org/toc/2398-502XBackground: The duration of immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is still uncertain, but it is of key clinical and epidemiological importance. Seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoV) have been circulating for longer and, therefore, may offer insights into the long-term dynamics of reinfection for such viruses. Methods: Combining historical seroprevalence data from five studies covering the four circulating HCoVs with an age-structured reverse catalytic model, we estimated the likely duration of seropositivity following seroconversion. Results: We estimated that antibody persistence lasted between 0.9 (95% Credible interval: 0.6 - 1.6) and 3.8 (95% CrI: 2.0 - 7.4) years. Furthermore, we found the force of infection in older children and adults (those over 8.5 [95% CrI: 7.5 - 9.9] years) to be higher compared with young children in the majority of studies. Conclusions: These estimates of endemic HCoV dynamics could provide an indication of the future long-term infection and reinfection patterns of SARS-CoV-2.Eleanor M. ReesNaomi R. WaterlowCentre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working GroupRachel LoweAdam J. KucharskiWellcomearticleMedicineRScienceQENWellcome Open Research, Vol 6 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Eleanor M. Rees Naomi R. Waterlow Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group Rachel Lowe Adam J. Kucharski Estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies [version 2; peer review: 3 approved]
description	Background: The duration of immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is still uncertain, but it is of key clinical and epidemiological importance. Seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoV) have been circulating for longer and, therefore, may offer insights into the long-term dynamics of reinfection for such viruses. Methods: Combining historical seroprevalence data from five studies covering the four circulating HCoVs with an age-structured reverse catalytic model, we estimated the likely duration of seropositivity following seroconversion. Results: We estimated that antibody persistence lasted between 0.9 (95% Credible interval: 0.6 - 1.6) and 3.8 (95% CrI: 2.0 - 7.4) years. Furthermore, we found the force of infection in older children and adults (those over 8.5 [95% CrI: 7.5 - 9.9] years) to be higher compared with young children in the majority of studies. Conclusions: These estimates of endemic HCoV dynamics could provide an indication of the future long-term infection and reinfection patterns of SARS-CoV-2.
format	article
author	Eleanor M. Rees Naomi R. Waterlow Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group Rachel Lowe Adam J. Kucharski
author_facet	Eleanor M. Rees Naomi R. Waterlow Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group Rachel Lowe Adam J. Kucharski
author_sort	Eleanor M. Rees
title	Estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies [version 2; peer review: 3 approved]
title_short	Estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies [version 2; peer review: 3 approved]
title_full	Estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies [version 2; peer review: 3 approved]
title_fullStr	Estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies [version 2; peer review: 3 approved]
title_full_unstemmed	Estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies [version 2; peer review: 3 approved]
title_sort	estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies [version 2; peer review: 3 approved]
publisher	Wellcome
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/cac32fb1c896401aa428364d6e44ea46
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Estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies [version 2; peer review: 3 approved]

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