Mathematical analysis of a measles transmission dynamics model in Bangladesh with double dose vaccination

Abstract Although the availability of the measles vaccine, it is still epidemic in many countries globally, including Bangladesh. Eradication of measles needs to keep the basic reproduction number less than one $$(\mathrm{i}.\mathrm{e}. \, \, {\mathrm{R}}_{0}<1)$$ ( i . e . R 0 < 1 ) . This pa...

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Autores principales:	Md Abdul Kuddus, M. Mohiuddin, Azizur Rahman
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/cb4dc9fa530d4746a941646efda11963
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:cb4dc9fa530d4746a941646efda119632021-12-02T17:08:23ZMathematical analysis of a measles transmission dynamics model in Bangladesh with double dose vaccination10.1038/s41598-021-95913-82045-2322https://doaj.org/article/cb4dc9fa530d4746a941646efda119632021-08-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-95913-8https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Although the availability of the measles vaccine, it is still epidemic in many countries globally, including Bangladesh. Eradication of measles needs to keep the basic reproduction number less than one $$(\mathrm{i}.\mathrm{e}. \, \, {\mathrm{R}}_{0}<1)$$ ( i . e . R 0 < 1 ) . This paper investigates a modified (SVEIR) measles compartmental model with double dose vaccination in Bangladesh to simulate the measles prevalence. We perform a dynamical analysis of the resulting system and find that the model contains two equilibrium points: a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium. The disease will be died out if the basic reproduction number is less than one $$(\mathrm{i}.\mathrm{e}. \, \, {\mathrm{ R}}_{0}<1)$$ ( i . e . R 0 < 1 ) , and if greater than one $$(\mathrm{i}.\mathrm{e}. \, \, {\mathrm{R}}_{0}>1)$$ ( i . e . R 0 > 1 ) epidemic occurs. While using the Routh-Hurwitz criteria, the equilibria are found to be locally asymptotically stable under the former condition on $${\mathrm{R}}_{0}$$ R 0 . The partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs), a global sensitivity analysis method is used to compute $${\mathrm{R}}_{0}$$ R 0 and measles prevalence $$\left({\mathrm{I}}^{*}\right)$$ I ∗ with respect to the estimated and fitted model parameters. We found that the transmission rate $$(\upbeta )$$ ( β ) had the most significant influence on measles prevalence. Numerical simulations were carried out to commissions our analytical outcomes. These findings show that how progression rate, transmission rate and double dose vaccination rate affect the dynamics of measles prevalence. The information that we generate from this study may help government and public health professionals in making strategies to deal with the omissions of a measles outbreak and thus control and prevent an epidemic in Bangladesh.Md Abdul KuddusM. MohiuddinAzizur RahmanNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-16 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Md Abdul Kuddus M. Mohiuddin Azizur Rahman Mathematical analysis of a measles transmission dynamics model in Bangladesh with double dose vaccination
description	Abstract Although the availability of the measles vaccine, it is still epidemic in many countries globally, including Bangladesh. Eradication of measles needs to keep the basic reproduction number less than one $$(\mathrm{i}.\mathrm{e}. \, \, {\mathrm{R}}_{0}<1)$$ ( i . e . R 0 < 1 ) . This paper investigates a modified (SVEIR) measles compartmental model with double dose vaccination in Bangladesh to simulate the measles prevalence. We perform a dynamical analysis of the resulting system and find that the model contains two equilibrium points: a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium. The disease will be died out if the basic reproduction number is less than one $$(\mathrm{i}.\mathrm{e}. \, \, {\mathrm{ R}}_{0}<1)$$ ( i . e . R 0 < 1 ) , and if greater than one $$(\mathrm{i}.\mathrm{e}. \, \, {\mathrm{R}}_{0}>1)$$ ( i . e . R 0 > 1 ) epidemic occurs. While using the Routh-Hurwitz criteria, the equilibria are found to be locally asymptotically stable under the former condition on $${\mathrm{R}}_{0}$$ R 0 . The partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs), a global sensitivity analysis method is used to compute $${\mathrm{R}}_{0}$$ R 0 and measles prevalence $$\left({\mathrm{I}}^{*}\right)$$ I ∗ with respect to the estimated and fitted model parameters. We found that the transmission rate $$(\upbeta )$$ ( β ) had the most significant influence on measles prevalence. Numerical simulations were carried out to commissions our analytical outcomes. These findings show that how progression rate, transmission rate and double dose vaccination rate affect the dynamics of measles prevalence. The information that we generate from this study may help government and public health professionals in making strategies to deal with the omissions of a measles outbreak and thus control and prevent an epidemic in Bangladesh.
format	article
author	Md Abdul Kuddus M. Mohiuddin Azizur Rahman
author_facet	Md Abdul Kuddus M. Mohiuddin Azizur Rahman
author_sort	Md Abdul Kuddus
title	Mathematical analysis of a measles transmission dynamics model in Bangladesh with double dose vaccination
title_short	Mathematical analysis of a measles transmission dynamics model in Bangladesh with double dose vaccination
title_full	Mathematical analysis of a measles transmission dynamics model in Bangladesh with double dose vaccination
title_fullStr	Mathematical analysis of a measles transmission dynamics model in Bangladesh with double dose vaccination
title_full_unstemmed	Mathematical analysis of a measles transmission dynamics model in Bangladesh with double dose vaccination
title_sort	mathematical analysis of a measles transmission dynamics model in bangladesh with double dose vaccination
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/cb4dc9fa530d4746a941646efda11963
work_keys_str_mv	AT mdabdulkuddus mathematicalanalysisofameaslestransmissiondynamicsmodelinbangladeshwithdoubledosevaccination AT mmohiuddin mathematicalanalysisofameaslestransmissiondynamicsmodelinbangladeshwithdoubledosevaccination AT azizurrahman mathematicalanalysisofameaslestransmissiondynamicsmodelinbangladeshwithdoubledosevaccination
_version_	1718381584133914624

Mathematical analysis of a measles transmission dynamics model in Bangladesh with double dose vaccination

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