The association between first and second wave COVID-19 mortality in Italy

Abstract Background The relation between the magnitude of successive waves of the COVID-19 outbreak within the same communities could be useful in predicting the scope of new outbreaks. Methods We investigated the extent to which COVID-19 mortality in Italy during the second wave was related to firs...

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Autores principales:	Marco Vinceti, Tommaso Filippini, Kenneth J. Rothman, Silvia Di Federico, Nicola Orsini
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	BMC 2021
Materias:	COVID-19 Epidemiology Mortality Public health SARS-CoV-2 Waves Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/cb94ce563ddd4a5690dbe89db3c6a392
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:cb94ce563ddd4a5690dbe89db3c6a3922021-11-14T12:14:12ZThe association between first and second wave COVID-19 mortality in Italy10.1186/s12889-021-12126-41471-2458https://doaj.org/article/cb94ce563ddd4a5690dbe89db3c6a3922021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-12126-4https://doaj.org/toc/1471-2458Abstract Background The relation between the magnitude of successive waves of the COVID-19 outbreak within the same communities could be useful in predicting the scope of new outbreaks. Methods We investigated the extent to which COVID-19 mortality in Italy during the second wave was related to first wave mortality within the same provinces. We compared data on province-specific COVID-19 2020 mortality in two time periods, corresponding to the first wave (February 24–June 30, 2020) and to the second wave (September 1–December 31, 2020), using cubic spline regression. Results For provinces with the lowest crude mortality rate in the first wave (February–June), i.e. < 22 cases/100,000/month, mortality in the second wave (September–December) was positively associated with mortality during the first wave. In provinces with mortality greater than 22/100,000/month during the first wave, higher mortality in the first wave was associated with a lower second wave mortality. Results were similar when the analysis was censored at October 2020, before the implementation of region-specific measures against the outbreak. Neither vaccination nor variant spread had any role during the study period. Conclusions These findings indicate that provinces with the most severe initial COVID-19 outbreaks, as assessed through mortality data, faced milder second waves.Marco VincetiTommaso FilippiniKenneth J. RothmanSilvia Di FedericoNicola OrsiniBMCarticleCOVID-19EpidemiologyMortalityPublic healthSARS-CoV-2WavesPublic aspects of medicineRA1-1270ENBMC Public Health, Vol 21, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	COVID-19 Epidemiology Mortality Public health SARS-CoV-2 Waves Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
spellingShingle	COVID-19 Epidemiology Mortality Public health SARS-CoV-2 Waves Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Marco Vinceti Tommaso Filippini Kenneth J. Rothman Silvia Di Federico Nicola Orsini The association between first and second wave COVID-19 mortality in Italy
description	Abstract Background The relation between the magnitude of successive waves of the COVID-19 outbreak within the same communities could be useful in predicting the scope of new outbreaks. Methods We investigated the extent to which COVID-19 mortality in Italy during the second wave was related to first wave mortality within the same provinces. We compared data on province-specific COVID-19 2020 mortality in two time periods, corresponding to the first wave (February 24–June 30, 2020) and to the second wave (September 1–December 31, 2020), using cubic spline regression. Results For provinces with the lowest crude mortality rate in the first wave (February–June), i.e. < 22 cases/100,000/month, mortality in the second wave (September–December) was positively associated with mortality during the first wave. In provinces with mortality greater than 22/100,000/month during the first wave, higher mortality in the first wave was associated with a lower second wave mortality. Results were similar when the analysis was censored at October 2020, before the implementation of region-specific measures against the outbreak. Neither vaccination nor variant spread had any role during the study period. Conclusions These findings indicate that provinces with the most severe initial COVID-19 outbreaks, as assessed through mortality data, faced milder second waves.
format	article
author	Marco Vinceti Tommaso Filippini Kenneth J. Rothman Silvia Di Federico Nicola Orsini
author_facet	Marco Vinceti Tommaso Filippini Kenneth J. Rothman Silvia Di Federico Nicola Orsini
author_sort	Marco Vinceti
title	The association between first and second wave COVID-19 mortality in Italy
title_short	The association between first and second wave COVID-19 mortality in Italy
title_full	The association between first and second wave COVID-19 mortality in Italy
title_fullStr	The association between first and second wave COVID-19 mortality in Italy
title_full_unstemmed	The association between first and second wave COVID-19 mortality in Italy
title_sort	association between first and second wave covid-19 mortality in italy
publisher	BMC
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/cb94ce563ddd4a5690dbe89db3c6a392
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The association between first and second wave COVID-19 mortality in Italy

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