Increasingly expanded future risk of dengue fever in the Pearl River Delta, China.

<h4>Background</h4>In recent years, frequent outbreaks of dengue fever (DF) have become an increasingly serious public health issue in China, especially in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) with fast socioeconomic developments. Previous studies mainly focused on the historic DF epidemics, thei...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Wei Wu, Hongyan Ren, Liang Lu
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/cba606f1229b4437af47eab626979313
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:cba606f1229b4437af47eab626979313
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:cba606f1229b4437af47eab6269793132021-12-02T20:24:02ZIncreasingly expanded future risk of dengue fever in the Pearl River Delta, China.1935-27271935-273510.1371/journal.pntd.0009745https://doaj.org/article/cba606f1229b4437af47eab6269793132021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009745https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735<h4>Background</h4>In recent years, frequent outbreaks of dengue fever (DF) have become an increasingly serious public health issue in China, especially in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) with fast socioeconomic developments. Previous studies mainly focused on the historic DF epidemics, their influencing factors, and the prediction of DF risks. However, the future risks of this disease under both different socioeconomic development and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios remain little understood.<h4>Methodology and principal findings</h4>In this study, a spatial dataset of gross domestic product (GDP), population density, and land use and land coverage (LULC) in 2050 and 2070 was obtained by simulation based on the different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), and the future climatic data derived from the RCP scenarios were integrated into the Maxent models for predicting the future DF risk in the PRD region. Among all the variables included in this study, socioeconomics factors made the dominant contribution (83% or so) during simulating the current spatial distribution of the DF epidemics in the PRD region. Moreover, the spatial distribution of future DF risk identified by the climatic and socioeconomic (C&S) variables models was more detailed than that of the climatic variables models. Along with global warming and socioeconomic development, the zones with DF high and moderate risk will continue to increase, and the population at high and moderate risk will reach a maximum of 48.47 million (i.e., 63.78% of the whole PRD) under the RCP 4.5/SSP2 in 2070.<h4>Conclusions</h4>The increasing DF risk may be an inevitable public health threat in the PRD region with rapid socioeconomic developments and global warming in the future. Our results suggest that curbs in emissions and more sustainable socioeconomic growth targets offer hope for limiting the future impact of dengue, and effective prevention and control need to continue to be strengthened at the junction of Guangzhou-Foshan, north-central Zhongshan city, and central-western Dongguan city. Our study provides useful clues for relevant hygienic authorities making targeted adapting strategies for this disease.Wei WuHongyan RenLiang LuPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleArctic medicine. Tropical medicineRC955-962Public aspects of medicineRA1-1270ENPLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 9, p e0009745 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
spellingShingle	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Wei Wu Hongyan Ren Liang Lu Increasingly expanded future risk of dengue fever in the Pearl River Delta, China.
description	<h4>Background</h4>In recent years, frequent outbreaks of dengue fever (DF) have become an increasingly serious public health issue in China, especially in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) with fast socioeconomic developments. Previous studies mainly focused on the historic DF epidemics, their influencing factors, and the prediction of DF risks. However, the future risks of this disease under both different socioeconomic development and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios remain little understood.<h4>Methodology and principal findings</h4>In this study, a spatial dataset of gross domestic product (GDP), population density, and land use and land coverage (LULC) in 2050 and 2070 was obtained by simulation based on the different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), and the future climatic data derived from the RCP scenarios were integrated into the Maxent models for predicting the future DF risk in the PRD region. Among all the variables included in this study, socioeconomics factors made the dominant contribution (83% or so) during simulating the current spatial distribution of the DF epidemics in the PRD region. Moreover, the spatial distribution of future DF risk identified by the climatic and socioeconomic (C&S) variables models was more detailed than that of the climatic variables models. Along with global warming and socioeconomic development, the zones with DF high and moderate risk will continue to increase, and the population at high and moderate risk will reach a maximum of 48.47 million (i.e., 63.78% of the whole PRD) under the RCP 4.5/SSP2 in 2070.<h4>Conclusions</h4>The increasing DF risk may be an inevitable public health threat in the PRD region with rapid socioeconomic developments and global warming in the future. Our results suggest that curbs in emissions and more sustainable socioeconomic growth targets offer hope for limiting the future impact of dengue, and effective prevention and control need to continue to be strengthened at the junction of Guangzhou-Foshan, north-central Zhongshan city, and central-western Dongguan city. Our study provides useful clues for relevant hygienic authorities making targeted adapting strategies for this disease.
format	article
author	Wei Wu Hongyan Ren Liang Lu
author_facet	Wei Wu Hongyan Ren Liang Lu
author_sort	Wei Wu
title	Increasingly expanded future risk of dengue fever in the Pearl River Delta, China.
title_short	Increasingly expanded future risk of dengue fever in the Pearl River Delta, China.
title_full	Increasingly expanded future risk of dengue fever in the Pearl River Delta, China.
title_fullStr	Increasingly expanded future risk of dengue fever in the Pearl River Delta, China.
title_full_unstemmed	Increasingly expanded future risk of dengue fever in the Pearl River Delta, China.
title_sort	increasingly expanded future risk of dengue fever in the pearl river delta, china.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/cba606f1229b4437af47eab626979313
work_keys_str_mv	AT weiwu increasinglyexpandedfutureriskofdenguefeverinthepearlriverdeltachina AT hongyanren increasinglyexpandedfutureriskofdenguefeverinthepearlriverdeltachina AT lianglu increasinglyexpandedfutureriskofdenguefeverinthepearlriverdeltachina
_version_	1718374075856846848

Increasingly expanded future risk of dengue fever in the Pearl River Delta, China.

Ejemplares similares