Internet search patterns reveal clinical course of COVID-19 disease progression and pandemic spread across 32 countries

Abstract Effective public health response to novel pandemics relies on accurate and timely surveillance of pandemic spread, as well as characterization of the clinical course of the disease in affected individuals. We sought to determine whether Internet search patterns can be useful for tracking CO...

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Autores principales:	Tina Lu, Ben Y. Reis
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics R858-859.7
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/cbf92e18b54c44fcbed88dedb422976b
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:cbf92e18b54c44fcbed88dedb422976b2021-12-02T13:50:57ZInternet search patterns reveal clinical course of COVID-19 disease progression and pandemic spread across 32 countries10.1038/s41746-021-00396-62398-6352https://doaj.org/article/cbf92e18b54c44fcbed88dedb422976b2021-02-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41746-021-00396-6https://doaj.org/toc/2398-6352Abstract Effective public health response to novel pandemics relies on accurate and timely surveillance of pandemic spread, as well as characterization of the clinical course of the disease in affected individuals. We sought to determine whether Internet search patterns can be useful for tracking COVID-19 spread, and whether these data could also be useful in understanding the clinical progression of the disease in 32 countries across six continents. Temporal correlation analyses were conducted to characterize the relationships between a range of COVID-19 symptom-specific search terms and reported COVID-19 cases and deaths for each country from January 1 through April 20, 2020. Increases in COVID-19 symptom-related searches preceded increases in reported COVID-19 cases and deaths by an average of 18.53 days (95% CI 15.98–21.08) and 22.16 days (20.33–23.99), respectively. Cross-country ensemble averaging was used to derive average temporal profiles for each search term, which were combined to create a search-data-based view of the clinical course of disease progression. Internet search patterns revealed a clear temporal pattern of disease progression for COVID-19: Initial symptoms of fever, dry cough, sore throat and chills were followed by shortness of breath an average of 5.22 days (3.30–7.14) after initial symptom onset, matching the clinical course reported in the medical literature. This study shows that Internet search data can be useful for characterizing the detailed clinical course of a disease. These data are available in real-time at population scale, providing important benefits as a complementary resource for tracking pandemics, especially before widespread laboratory testing is available.Tina LuBen Y. ReisNature PortfolioarticleComputer applications to medicine. Medical informaticsR858-859.7ENnpj Digital Medicine, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics R858-859.7
spellingShingle	Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics R858-859.7 Tina Lu Ben Y. Reis Internet search patterns reveal clinical course of COVID-19 disease progression and pandemic spread across 32 countries
description	Abstract Effective public health response to novel pandemics relies on accurate and timely surveillance of pandemic spread, as well as characterization of the clinical course of the disease in affected individuals. We sought to determine whether Internet search patterns can be useful for tracking COVID-19 spread, and whether these data could also be useful in understanding the clinical progression of the disease in 32 countries across six continents. Temporal correlation analyses were conducted to characterize the relationships between a range of COVID-19 symptom-specific search terms and reported COVID-19 cases and deaths for each country from January 1 through April 20, 2020. Increases in COVID-19 symptom-related searches preceded increases in reported COVID-19 cases and deaths by an average of 18.53 days (95% CI 15.98–21.08) and 22.16 days (20.33–23.99), respectively. Cross-country ensemble averaging was used to derive average temporal profiles for each search term, which were combined to create a search-data-based view of the clinical course of disease progression. Internet search patterns revealed a clear temporal pattern of disease progression for COVID-19: Initial symptoms of fever, dry cough, sore throat and chills were followed by shortness of breath an average of 5.22 days (3.30–7.14) after initial symptom onset, matching the clinical course reported in the medical literature. This study shows that Internet search data can be useful for characterizing the detailed clinical course of a disease. These data are available in real-time at population scale, providing important benefits as a complementary resource for tracking pandemics, especially before widespread laboratory testing is available.
format	article
author	Tina Lu Ben Y. Reis
author_facet	Tina Lu Ben Y. Reis
author_sort	Tina Lu
title	Internet search patterns reveal clinical course of COVID-19 disease progression and pandemic spread across 32 countries
title_short	Internet search patterns reveal clinical course of COVID-19 disease progression and pandemic spread across 32 countries
title_full	Internet search patterns reveal clinical course of COVID-19 disease progression and pandemic spread across 32 countries
title_fullStr	Internet search patterns reveal clinical course of COVID-19 disease progression and pandemic spread across 32 countries
title_full_unstemmed	Internet search patterns reveal clinical course of COVID-19 disease progression and pandemic spread across 32 countries
title_sort	internet search patterns reveal clinical course of covid-19 disease progression and pandemic spread across 32 countries
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/cbf92e18b54c44fcbed88dedb422976b
work_keys_str_mv	AT tinalu internetsearchpatternsrevealclinicalcourseofcovid19diseaseprogressionandpandemicspreadacross32countries AT benyreis internetsearchpatternsrevealclinicalcourseofcovid19diseaseprogressionandpandemicspreadacross32countries
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Internet search patterns reveal clinical course of COVID-19 disease progression and pandemic spread across 32 countries

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