Mechanistic modelling of COVID-19 and the impact of lockdowns on a short-time scale.

<h4>Background</h4>To mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus, some countries have adopted more stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions in contrast to those widely used. In addition to standard practices such as enforcing curfews, social distancing, and closure of non-essentia...

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Autores principales:	Danish A Ahmed, Ali R Ansari, Mudassar Imran, Kamal Dingle, Michael B Bonsall
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/cc19b0cb75914124889f1603a8069a2c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:cc19b0cb75914124889f1603a8069a2c2021-12-02T20:07:51ZMechanistic modelling of COVID-19 and the impact of lockdowns on a short-time scale.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0258084https://doaj.org/article/cc19b0cb75914124889f1603a8069a2c2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258084https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203<h4>Background</h4>To mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus, some countries have adopted more stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions in contrast to those widely used. In addition to standard practices such as enforcing curfews, social distancing, and closure of non-essential service industries, other non-conventional policies also have been implemented, such as the total lockdown of fragmented regions, which are composed of sparsely and highly populated areas.<h4>Methods</h4>In this paper, we model the movement of a host population using a mechanistic approach based on random walks, which are either diffusive or super-diffusive. Infections are realised through a contact process, whereby a susceptible host is infected if in close spatial proximity of the infectious host with an assigned transmission probability. Our focus is on a short-time scale (∼ 3 days), which is the average time lag time before an infected individual becomes infectious.<h4>Results</h4>We find that the level of infection remains approximately constant with an increase in population diffusion, and also in the case of faster population dispersal (super-diffusion). Moreover, we demonstrate how the efficacy of imposing a lockdown depends heavily on how susceptible and infectious individuals are distributed over space.<h4>Conclusion</h4>Our results indicate that on a short-time scale, the type of movement behaviour does not play an important role in rising infection levels. Also, lock-down restrictions are ineffective if the population distribution is homogeneous. However, in the case of a heterogeneous population, lockdowns are effective if a large proportion of infectious carriers are distributed in sparsely populated sub-regions.Danish A AhmedAli R AnsariMudassar ImranKamal DingleMichael B BonsallPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 10, p e0258084 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Danish A Ahmed Ali R Ansari Mudassar Imran Kamal Dingle Michael B Bonsall Mechanistic modelling of COVID-19 and the impact of lockdowns on a short-time scale.
description	<h4>Background</h4>To mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus, some countries have adopted more stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions in contrast to those widely used. In addition to standard practices such as enforcing curfews, social distancing, and closure of non-essential service industries, other non-conventional policies also have been implemented, such as the total lockdown of fragmented regions, which are composed of sparsely and highly populated areas.<h4>Methods</h4>In this paper, we model the movement of a host population using a mechanistic approach based on random walks, which are either diffusive or super-diffusive. Infections are realised through a contact process, whereby a susceptible host is infected if in close spatial proximity of the infectious host with an assigned transmission probability. Our focus is on a short-time scale (∼ 3 days), which is the average time lag time before an infected individual becomes infectious.<h4>Results</h4>We find that the level of infection remains approximately constant with an increase in population diffusion, and also in the case of faster population dispersal (super-diffusion). Moreover, we demonstrate how the efficacy of imposing a lockdown depends heavily on how susceptible and infectious individuals are distributed over space.<h4>Conclusion</h4>Our results indicate that on a short-time scale, the type of movement behaviour does not play an important role in rising infection levels. Also, lock-down restrictions are ineffective if the population distribution is homogeneous. However, in the case of a heterogeneous population, lockdowns are effective if a large proportion of infectious carriers are distributed in sparsely populated sub-regions.
format	article
author	Danish A Ahmed Ali R Ansari Mudassar Imran Kamal Dingle Michael B Bonsall
author_facet	Danish A Ahmed Ali R Ansari Mudassar Imran Kamal Dingle Michael B Bonsall
author_sort	Danish A Ahmed
title	Mechanistic modelling of COVID-19 and the impact of lockdowns on a short-time scale.
title_short	Mechanistic modelling of COVID-19 and the impact of lockdowns on a short-time scale.
title_full	Mechanistic modelling of COVID-19 and the impact of lockdowns on a short-time scale.
title_fullStr	Mechanistic modelling of COVID-19 and the impact of lockdowns on a short-time scale.
title_full_unstemmed	Mechanistic modelling of COVID-19 and the impact of lockdowns on a short-time scale.
title_sort	mechanistic modelling of covid-19 and the impact of lockdowns on a short-time scale.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/cc19b0cb75914124889f1603a8069a2c
work_keys_str_mv	AT danishaahmed mechanisticmodellingofcovid19andtheimpactoflockdownsonashorttimescale AT aliransari mechanisticmodellingofcovid19andtheimpactoflockdownsonashorttimescale AT mudassarimran mechanisticmodellingofcovid19andtheimpactoflockdownsonashorttimescale AT kamaldingle mechanisticmodellingofcovid19andtheimpactoflockdownsonashorttimescale AT michaelbbonsall mechanisticmodellingofcovid19andtheimpactoflockdownsonashorttimescale
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Mechanistic modelling of COVID-19 and the impact of lockdowns on a short-time scale.

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