Cold and dry winter conditions are associated with greater SARS-CoV-2 transmission at regional level in western countries during the first epidemic wave

Abstract Higher transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in cold and dry weather conditions has been hypothesized since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic but the level of epidemiological evidence remains low. During the first wave of the pandemic, Spain, Italy, France, Portugal, Canada and USA presented an e...

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Autores principales:	Jordi Landier, Juliette Paireau, Stanislas Rebaudet, Eva Legendre, Laurent Lehot, Arnaud Fontanet, Simon Cauchemez, Jean Gaudart
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/cc4fa6a507e04634a92ce401fa9a7052
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:cc4fa6a507e04634a92ce401fa9a70522021-12-02T16:04:22ZCold and dry winter conditions are associated with greater SARS-CoV-2 transmission at regional level in western countries during the first epidemic wave10.1038/s41598-021-91798-92045-2322https://doaj.org/article/cc4fa6a507e04634a92ce401fa9a70522021-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91798-9https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Higher transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in cold and dry weather conditions has been hypothesized since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic but the level of epidemiological evidence remains low. During the first wave of the pandemic, Spain, Italy, France, Portugal, Canada and USA presented an early spread, a heavy COVID-19 burden, and low initial public health response until lockdowns. In a context when testing was limited, we calculated the basic reproduction number (R0) in 63 regions from the growth in regional death counts. After adjusting for population density, early spread of the epidemic, and age structure, temperature and humidity were negatively associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility. A reduction of mean absolute humidity by 1 g/m3 was associated with a 0.15-unit increase of R0. Below 10 °C, a temperature reduction of 1 °C was associated with a 0.16-unit increase of R0. Our results confirm a dependency of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility to weather conditions in the absence of control measures during the first wave. The transition from summer to winter, corresponding to drop in temperature associated with an overall decrease in absolute humidity, likely contributed to the intensification of the second wave in north-west hemisphere countries. Non-pharmaceutical interventions must be adjusted to account for increased transmissibility in winter conditions.Jordi LandierJuliette PaireauStanislas RebaudetEva LegendreLaurent LehotArnaud FontanetSimon CauchemezJean GaudartNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Jordi Landier Juliette Paireau Stanislas Rebaudet Eva Legendre Laurent Lehot Arnaud Fontanet Simon Cauchemez Jean Gaudart Cold and dry winter conditions are associated with greater SARS-CoV-2 transmission at regional level in western countries during the first epidemic wave
description	Abstract Higher transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in cold and dry weather conditions has been hypothesized since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic but the level of epidemiological evidence remains low. During the first wave of the pandemic, Spain, Italy, France, Portugal, Canada and USA presented an early spread, a heavy COVID-19 burden, and low initial public health response until lockdowns. In a context when testing was limited, we calculated the basic reproduction number (R0) in 63 regions from the growth in regional death counts. After adjusting for population density, early spread of the epidemic, and age structure, temperature and humidity were negatively associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility. A reduction of mean absolute humidity by 1 g/m3 was associated with a 0.15-unit increase of R0. Below 10 °C, a temperature reduction of 1 °C was associated with a 0.16-unit increase of R0. Our results confirm a dependency of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility to weather conditions in the absence of control measures during the first wave. The transition from summer to winter, corresponding to drop in temperature associated with an overall decrease in absolute humidity, likely contributed to the intensification of the second wave in north-west hemisphere countries. Non-pharmaceutical interventions must be adjusted to account for increased transmissibility in winter conditions.
format	article
author	Jordi Landier Juliette Paireau Stanislas Rebaudet Eva Legendre Laurent Lehot Arnaud Fontanet Simon Cauchemez Jean Gaudart
author_facet	Jordi Landier Juliette Paireau Stanislas Rebaudet Eva Legendre Laurent Lehot Arnaud Fontanet Simon Cauchemez Jean Gaudart
author_sort	Jordi Landier
title	Cold and dry winter conditions are associated with greater SARS-CoV-2 transmission at regional level in western countries during the first epidemic wave
title_short	Cold and dry winter conditions are associated with greater SARS-CoV-2 transmission at regional level in western countries during the first epidemic wave
title_full	Cold and dry winter conditions are associated with greater SARS-CoV-2 transmission at regional level in western countries during the first epidemic wave
title_fullStr	Cold and dry winter conditions are associated with greater SARS-CoV-2 transmission at regional level in western countries during the first epidemic wave
title_full_unstemmed	Cold and dry winter conditions are associated with greater SARS-CoV-2 transmission at regional level in western countries during the first epidemic wave
title_sort	cold and dry winter conditions are associated with greater sars-cov-2 transmission at regional level in western countries during the first epidemic wave
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/cc4fa6a507e04634a92ce401fa9a7052
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Cold and dry winter conditions are associated with greater SARS-CoV-2 transmission at regional level in western countries during the first epidemic wave

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