Experiments in modeling recent Indian fertility pattern

Abstract Modelling is a well-established concept for understanding the typical shape and pattern of age-specific fertility. The distribution of India’s age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) is unimodal and positively skewed and is distinct from the ASFR of the developed countries. The existing models (...

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Autores principales:	Ujjaval Srivastava, Kaushalendra Kumar Singh, Anjali Pandey, Neeraj Narayan
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/cc7048cbe80a49bc8f8f66c5bab286f3
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:cc7048cbe80a49bc8f8f66c5bab286f32021-12-02T16:36:04ZExperiments in modeling recent Indian fertility pattern10.1038/s41598-021-85959-z2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/cc7048cbe80a49bc8f8f66c5bab286f32021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-85959-zhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Modelling is a well-established concept for understanding the typical shape and pattern of age-specific fertility. The distribution of India’s age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) is unimodal and positively skewed and is distinct from the ASFR of the developed countries. The existing models (P-K model, Gompertz model, Skew-normal model and G-P model considered here) that were developed, based on the experiences of the developed countries, failed to fit the single-year age-specific fertility pattern for India as a whole and for the six selected states. Our study has proposed four flexible models, to capture the diverse age pattern of fertility, observed in the Indian states. The proposed models were compared in three ways; among themselves, with the original models and with the popular Hadwiger model. The parameters of these proposed models were estimated through the Non-Linear Least Squares Method. To find the model with best fit, we used the corrected version of Akaike’s Information Criterion (AICc). Optimization of the four original models was successfully done. When the model was fitted to the empirical data of the 4th round of the National Family Health Survey conducted in 2015–2016, the results of this study showed that all the four proposed models outperform their corresponding original models and the Hadwiger model. When comparison among the proposed models was done, the Modified Gompertz Model provided the best fit for India, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat. Whereas, the Modified P-K model gave the best fit for West Bengal, Tripura and Karnataka. The Modified G-P model is the most suitable model for Punjab. Although our proposed models illustrated the fitting of ASFR for India as a whole and the selected six states only, it provides an important tool for the policymakers and the government authorities to project fertility rates and to understand the fertility transitions in India and various other states.Ujjaval SrivastavaKaushalendra Kumar SinghAnjali PandeyNeeraj NarayanNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Ujjaval Srivastava Kaushalendra Kumar Singh Anjali Pandey Neeraj Narayan Experiments in modeling recent Indian fertility pattern
description	Abstract Modelling is a well-established concept for understanding the typical shape and pattern of age-specific fertility. The distribution of India’s age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) is unimodal and positively skewed and is distinct from the ASFR of the developed countries. The existing models (P-K model, Gompertz model, Skew-normal model and G-P model considered here) that were developed, based on the experiences of the developed countries, failed to fit the single-year age-specific fertility pattern for India as a whole and for the six selected states. Our study has proposed four flexible models, to capture the diverse age pattern of fertility, observed in the Indian states. The proposed models were compared in three ways; among themselves, with the original models and with the popular Hadwiger model. The parameters of these proposed models were estimated through the Non-Linear Least Squares Method. To find the model with best fit, we used the corrected version of Akaike’s Information Criterion (AICc). Optimization of the four original models was successfully done. When the model was fitted to the empirical data of the 4th round of the National Family Health Survey conducted in 2015–2016, the results of this study showed that all the four proposed models outperform their corresponding original models and the Hadwiger model. When comparison among the proposed models was done, the Modified Gompertz Model provided the best fit for India, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat. Whereas, the Modified P-K model gave the best fit for West Bengal, Tripura and Karnataka. The Modified G-P model is the most suitable model for Punjab. Although our proposed models illustrated the fitting of ASFR for India as a whole and the selected six states only, it provides an important tool for the policymakers and the government authorities to project fertility rates and to understand the fertility transitions in India and various other states.
format	article
author	Ujjaval Srivastava Kaushalendra Kumar Singh Anjali Pandey Neeraj Narayan
author_facet	Ujjaval Srivastava Kaushalendra Kumar Singh Anjali Pandey Neeraj Narayan
author_sort	Ujjaval Srivastava
title	Experiments in modeling recent Indian fertility pattern
title_short	Experiments in modeling recent Indian fertility pattern
title_full	Experiments in modeling recent Indian fertility pattern
title_fullStr	Experiments in modeling recent Indian fertility pattern
title_full_unstemmed	Experiments in modeling recent Indian fertility pattern
title_sort	experiments in modeling recent indian fertility pattern
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/cc7048cbe80a49bc8f8f66c5bab286f3
work_keys_str_mv	AT ujjavalsrivastava experimentsinmodelingrecentindianfertilitypattern AT kaushalendrakumarsingh experimentsinmodelingrecentindianfertilitypattern AT anjalipandey experimentsinmodelingrecentindianfertilitypattern AT neerajnarayan experimentsinmodelingrecentindianfertilitypattern
_version_	1718383659552079872

Experiments in modeling recent Indian fertility pattern

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