Impact of asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers on pandemic policy outcomes

This paper provides a mathematical model that makes it clearly visible why the underestimation of r, the fraction of asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers in the general population, may lead to a catastrophic reliance on the standard policy intervention that attempts to isolate all confirmed infectious cas...

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Autores principales:	Weijie Pang, Hassan Chehaitli, T.R. Hurd
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. 2022
Materias:	Infectious disease model COVID-19 Pre-symptomatic Non-pharmaceutical intervention SIR model Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/cccece0c5d094a27b01b487957bd97f2
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:cccece0c5d094a27b01b487957bd97f22021-11-28T04:35:44ZImpact of asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers on pandemic policy outcomes2468-042710.1016/j.idm.2021.11.003https://doaj.org/article/cccece0c5d094a27b01b487957bd97f22022-03-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042721000713https://doaj.org/toc/2468-0427This paper provides a mathematical model that makes it clearly visible why the underestimation of r, the fraction of asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers in the general population, may lead to a catastrophic reliance on the standard policy intervention that attempts to isolate all confirmed infectious cases. The SE(A+O)R model with infectives separated into asymptomatic and ordinary carriers, supplemented by a model of the data generation process, is calibrated to standard early pandemic datasets for two countries. It is shown that certain fundamental parameters, critically r, are unidentifiable with this data. A general analytical framework is presented that projects the impact of different types of policy intervention. It is found that the lack of parameter identifiability implies that some, but not all, potential policy interventions can be correctly predicted. In an example representing Italy in March 2020, a hypothetical optimal policy of isolating confirmed cases that aims to reduce the basic reproduction number R0 of the outbreak from 4.4 to 0.8 assuming r = 0, only achieves 3.8 if it turns out that r = 40%.Weijie PangHassan ChehaitliT.R. HurdKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.articleInfectious disease modelCOVID-19Pre-symptomaticNon-pharmaceutical interventionSIR modelInfectious and parasitic diseasesRC109-216ENInfectious Disease Modelling, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 16-29 (2022)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Infectious disease model COVID-19 Pre-symptomatic Non-pharmaceutical intervention SIR model Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216
spellingShingle	Infectious disease model COVID-19 Pre-symptomatic Non-pharmaceutical intervention SIR model Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 Weijie Pang Hassan Chehaitli T.R. Hurd Impact of asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers on pandemic policy outcomes
description	This paper provides a mathematical model that makes it clearly visible why the underestimation of r, the fraction of asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers in the general population, may lead to a catastrophic reliance on the standard policy intervention that attempts to isolate all confirmed infectious cases. The SE(A+O)R model with infectives separated into asymptomatic and ordinary carriers, supplemented by a model of the data generation process, is calibrated to standard early pandemic datasets for two countries. It is shown that certain fundamental parameters, critically r, are unidentifiable with this data. A general analytical framework is presented that projects the impact of different types of policy intervention. It is found that the lack of parameter identifiability implies that some, but not all, potential policy interventions can be correctly predicted. In an example representing Italy in March 2020, a hypothetical optimal policy of isolating confirmed cases that aims to reduce the basic reproduction number R0 of the outbreak from 4.4 to 0.8 assuming r = 0, only achieves 3.8 if it turns out that r = 40%.
format	article
author	Weijie Pang Hassan Chehaitli T.R. Hurd
author_facet	Weijie Pang Hassan Chehaitli T.R. Hurd
author_sort	Weijie Pang
title	Impact of asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers on pandemic policy outcomes
title_short	Impact of asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers on pandemic policy outcomes
title_full	Impact of asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers on pandemic policy outcomes
title_fullStr	Impact of asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers on pandemic policy outcomes
title_full_unstemmed	Impact of asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers on pandemic policy outcomes
title_sort	impact of asymptomatic covid-19 carriers on pandemic policy outcomes
publisher	KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
publishDate	2022
url	https://doaj.org/article/cccece0c5d094a27b01b487957bd97f2
work_keys_str_mv	AT weijiepang impactofasymptomaticcovid19carriersonpandemicpolicyoutcomes AT hassanchehaitli impactofasymptomaticcovid19carriersonpandemicpolicyoutcomes AT trhurd impactofasymptomaticcovid19carriersonpandemicpolicyoutcomes
_version_	1718408345203769344

Impact of asymptomatic COVID-19 carriers on pandemic policy outcomes

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