Attributing correlation skill of dynamical GCM precipitation forecasts to statistical ENSO teleconnection using a set-theory-based approach

<p>Climate teleconnections are essential for the verification of valuable precipitation forecasts generated by global climate models (GCMs). This paper develops a novel approach to attributing correlation skill of dynamical GCM forecasts to statistical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) telec...

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Autores principales:	T. Zhao, H. Chen, Q. Shao, T. Tu, Y. Tian, X. Chen
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Copernicus Publications 2021
Materias:	Technology T Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/cd5da03a381b4fdf8ad25fd0a2fe74c7
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:cd5da03a381b4fdf8ad25fd0a2fe74c72021-11-08T10:50:08ZAttributing correlation skill of dynamical GCM precipitation forecasts to statistical ENSO teleconnection using a set-theory-based approach10.5194/hess-25-5717-20211027-56061607-7938https://doaj.org/article/cd5da03a381b4fdf8ad25fd0a2fe74c72021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://hess.copernicus.org/articles/25/5717/2021/hess-25-5717-2021.pdfhttps://doaj.org/toc/1027-5606https://doaj.org/toc/1607-7938<p>Climate teleconnections are essential for the verification of valuable precipitation forecasts generated by global climate models (GCMs). This paper develops a novel approach to attributing correlation skill of dynamical GCM forecasts to statistical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection by using the coefficient of determination (<span class="inline-formula"><i>R</i><sup>2</sup></span>). Specifically, observed precipitation is respectively regressed against GCM forecasts, Niño3.4 and both of them, and then the intersection operation is implemented to quantify the overlapping <span class="inline-formula"><i>R</i><sup>2</sup></span> for GCM forecasts and Niño3.4. The significance of overlapping <span class="inline-formula"><i>R</i><sup>2</sup></span> and the sign of ENSO teleconnection facilitate three cases of attribution, i.e., significantly positive anomaly correlation attributable to positive ENSO teleconnection, attributable to negative ENSO teleconnection and not attributable to ENSO teleconnection. A case study is devised for the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) seasonal forecasts of global precipitation. For grid cells around the world, the ratio of significantly positive anomaly correlation attributable to positive (negative) ENSO teleconnection is respectively 10.8 % (11.7 %) in December–January–February (DJF), 7.1 % (7.3 %) in March–April–May (MAM), 6.3 % (7.4 %) in June–July–August (JJA) and 7.0 % (14.3 %) in September–October–November (SON). The results not only confirm the prominent contributions of ENSO teleconnection to GCM forecasts, but also present spatial plots of regions where significantly positive anomaly correlation is subject to positive ENSO teleconnection, negative ENSO teleconnection and teleconnections other than ENSO. Overall, the proposed attribution approach can serve as an effective tool to investigate the sources of predictability for GCM seasonal forecasts of global precipitation.</p>T. ZhaoH. ChenQ. ShaoT. TuY. TianX. ChenCopernicus PublicationsarticleTechnologyTEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Geography. Anthropology. RecreationGEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350ENHydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol 25, Pp 5717-5732 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Technology T Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	Technology T Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 T. Zhao H. Chen Q. Shao T. Tu Y. Tian X. Chen Attributing correlation skill of dynamical GCM precipitation forecasts to statistical ENSO teleconnection using a set-theory-based approach
description	<p>Climate teleconnections are essential for the verification of valuable precipitation forecasts generated by global climate models (GCMs). This paper develops a novel approach to attributing correlation skill of dynamical GCM forecasts to statistical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection by using the coefficient of determination (<span class="inline-formula"><i>R</i><sup>2</sup></span>). Specifically, observed precipitation is respectively regressed against GCM forecasts, Niño3.4 and both of them, and then the intersection operation is implemented to quantify the overlapping <span class="inline-formula"><i>R</i><sup>2</sup></span> for GCM forecasts and Niño3.4. The significance of overlapping <span class="inline-formula"><i>R</i><sup>2</sup></span> and the sign of ENSO teleconnection facilitate three cases of attribution, i.e., significantly positive anomaly correlation attributable to positive ENSO teleconnection, attributable to negative ENSO teleconnection and not attributable to ENSO teleconnection. A case study is devised for the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) seasonal forecasts of global precipitation. For grid cells around the world, the ratio of significantly positive anomaly correlation attributable to positive (negative) ENSO teleconnection is respectively 10.8 % (11.7 %) in December–January–February (DJF), 7.1 % (7.3 %) in March–April–May (MAM), 6.3 % (7.4 %) in June–July–August (JJA) and 7.0 % (14.3 %) in September–October–November (SON). The results not only confirm the prominent contributions of ENSO teleconnection to GCM forecasts, but also present spatial plots of regions where significantly positive anomaly correlation is subject to positive ENSO teleconnection, negative ENSO teleconnection and teleconnections other than ENSO. Overall, the proposed attribution approach can serve as an effective tool to investigate the sources of predictability for GCM seasonal forecasts of global precipitation.</p>
format	article
author	T. Zhao H. Chen Q. Shao T. Tu Y. Tian X. Chen
author_facet	T. Zhao H. Chen Q. Shao T. Tu Y. Tian X. Chen
author_sort	T. Zhao
title	Attributing correlation skill of dynamical GCM precipitation forecasts to statistical ENSO teleconnection using a set-theory-based approach
title_short	Attributing correlation skill of dynamical GCM precipitation forecasts to statistical ENSO teleconnection using a set-theory-based approach
title_full	Attributing correlation skill of dynamical GCM precipitation forecasts to statistical ENSO teleconnection using a set-theory-based approach
title_fullStr	Attributing correlation skill of dynamical GCM precipitation forecasts to statistical ENSO teleconnection using a set-theory-based approach
title_full_unstemmed	Attributing correlation skill of dynamical GCM precipitation forecasts to statistical ENSO teleconnection using a set-theory-based approach
title_sort	attributing correlation skill of dynamical gcm precipitation forecasts to statistical enso teleconnection using a set-theory-based approach
publisher	Copernicus Publications
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/cd5da03a381b4fdf8ad25fd0a2fe74c7
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Attributing correlation skill of dynamical GCM precipitation forecasts to statistical ENSO teleconnection using a set-theory-based approach

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