Interplay between mobility, multi-seeding and lockdowns shapes COVID-19 local impact.

Assessing the impact of mobility on epidemic spreading is of crucial importance for understanding the effect of policies like mass quarantines and selective re-openings. While many factors affect disease incidence at a local level, making it more or less homogeneous with respect to other areas, the...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Mattia Mazzoli, Emanuele Pepe, David Mateo, Ciro Cattuto, Laetitia Gauvin, Paolo Bajardi, Michele Tizzoni, Alberto Hernando, Sandro Meloni, José J Ramasco
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Biology (General) QH301-705.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/cd74a4a8b18043759485e785fa8832e7
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:cd74a4a8b18043759485e785fa8832e7
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:cd74a4a8b18043759485e785fa8832e72021-11-25T05:40:32ZInterplay between mobility, multi-seeding and lockdowns shapes COVID-19 local impact.1553-734X1553-735810.1371/journal.pcbi.1009326https://doaj.org/article/cd74a4a8b18043759485e785fa8832e72021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009326https://doaj.org/toc/1553-734Xhttps://doaj.org/toc/1553-7358Assessing the impact of mobility on epidemic spreading is of crucial importance for understanding the effect of policies like mass quarantines and selective re-openings. While many factors affect disease incidence at a local level, making it more or less homogeneous with respect to other areas, the importance of multi-seeding has often been overlooked. Multi-seeding occurs when several independent (non-clustered) infected individuals arrive at a susceptible population. This can lead to independent outbreaks that spark from distinct areas of the local contact (social) network. Such mechanism has the potential to boost incidence, making control efforts and contact tracing less effective. Here, through a modeling approach we show that the effect produced by the number of initial infections is non-linear on the incidence peak and peak time. When case importations are carried by mobility from an already infected area, this effect is further enhanced by the local demography and underlying mixing patterns: the impact of every seed is larger in smaller populations. Finally, both in the model simulations and the analysis, we show that a multi-seeding effect combined with mobility restrictions can explain the observed spatial heterogeneities in the first wave of COVID-19 incidence and mortality in five European countries. Our results allow us for identifying what we have called epidemic epicenter: an area that shapes incidence and mortality peaks in the entire country. The present work further clarifies the nonlinear effects that mobility can have on the evolution of an epidemic and highlight their relevance for epidemic control.Mattia MazzoliEmanuele PepeDavid MateoCiro CattutoLaetitia GauvinPaolo BajardiMichele TizzoniAlberto HernandoSandro MeloniJosé J RamascoPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleBiology (General)QH301-705.5ENPLoS Computational Biology, Vol 17, Iss 10, p e1009326 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Biology (General) QH301-705.5
spellingShingle	Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Mattia Mazzoli Emanuele Pepe David Mateo Ciro Cattuto Laetitia Gauvin Paolo Bajardi Michele Tizzoni Alberto Hernando Sandro Meloni José J Ramasco Interplay between mobility, multi-seeding and lockdowns shapes COVID-19 local impact.
description	Assessing the impact of mobility on epidemic spreading is of crucial importance for understanding the effect of policies like mass quarantines and selective re-openings. While many factors affect disease incidence at a local level, making it more or less homogeneous with respect to other areas, the importance of multi-seeding has often been overlooked. Multi-seeding occurs when several independent (non-clustered) infected individuals arrive at a susceptible population. This can lead to independent outbreaks that spark from distinct areas of the local contact (social) network. Such mechanism has the potential to boost incidence, making control efforts and contact tracing less effective. Here, through a modeling approach we show that the effect produced by the number of initial infections is non-linear on the incidence peak and peak time. When case importations are carried by mobility from an already infected area, this effect is further enhanced by the local demography and underlying mixing patterns: the impact of every seed is larger in smaller populations. Finally, both in the model simulations and the analysis, we show that a multi-seeding effect combined with mobility restrictions can explain the observed spatial heterogeneities in the first wave of COVID-19 incidence and mortality in five European countries. Our results allow us for identifying what we have called epidemic epicenter: an area that shapes incidence and mortality peaks in the entire country. The present work further clarifies the nonlinear effects that mobility can have on the evolution of an epidemic and highlight their relevance for epidemic control.
format	article
author	Mattia Mazzoli Emanuele Pepe David Mateo Ciro Cattuto Laetitia Gauvin Paolo Bajardi Michele Tizzoni Alberto Hernando Sandro Meloni José J Ramasco
author_facet	Mattia Mazzoli Emanuele Pepe David Mateo Ciro Cattuto Laetitia Gauvin Paolo Bajardi Michele Tizzoni Alberto Hernando Sandro Meloni José J Ramasco
author_sort	Mattia Mazzoli
title	Interplay between mobility, multi-seeding and lockdowns shapes COVID-19 local impact.
title_short	Interplay between mobility, multi-seeding and lockdowns shapes COVID-19 local impact.
title_full	Interplay between mobility, multi-seeding and lockdowns shapes COVID-19 local impact.
title_fullStr	Interplay between mobility, multi-seeding and lockdowns shapes COVID-19 local impact.
title_full_unstemmed	Interplay between mobility, multi-seeding and lockdowns shapes COVID-19 local impact.
title_sort	interplay between mobility, multi-seeding and lockdowns shapes covid-19 local impact.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/cd74a4a8b18043759485e785fa8832e7
work_keys_str_mv	AT mattiamazzoli interplaybetweenmobilitymultiseedingandlockdownsshapescovid19localimpact AT emanuelepepe interplaybetweenmobilitymultiseedingandlockdownsshapescovid19localimpact AT davidmateo interplaybetweenmobilitymultiseedingandlockdownsshapescovid19localimpact AT cirocattuto interplaybetweenmobilitymultiseedingandlockdownsshapescovid19localimpact AT laetitiagauvin interplaybetweenmobilitymultiseedingandlockdownsshapescovid19localimpact AT paolobajardi interplaybetweenmobilitymultiseedingandlockdownsshapescovid19localimpact AT micheletizzoni interplaybetweenmobilitymultiseedingandlockdownsshapescovid19localimpact AT albertohernando interplaybetweenmobilitymultiseedingandlockdownsshapescovid19localimpact AT sandromeloni interplaybetweenmobilitymultiseedingandlockdownsshapescovid19localimpact AT josejramasco interplaybetweenmobilitymultiseedingandlockdownsshapescovid19localimpact
_version_	1718414544485744640

Interplay between mobility, multi-seeding and lockdowns shapes COVID-19 local impact.

Ejemplares similares