Inefficiency of SIR models in forecasting COVID-19 epidemic: a case study of Isfahan

Abstract The multifaceted destructions caused by COVID-19 have been compared to that of World War II. What makes the situation even more complicated is the ambiguity about the duration and ultimate spread of the pandemic. It is especially critical for the governments, healthcare systems, and economi...

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Autores principales:	Shiva Moein, Niloofar Nickaeen, Amir Roointan, Niloofar Borhani, Zarifeh Heidary, Shaghayegh Haghjooy Javanmard, Jafar Ghaisari, Yousof Gheisari
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/ce16070c22aa47f88c495d43a5ddb2fa
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ce16070c22aa47f88c495d43a5ddb2fa2021-12-02T13:20:21ZInefficiency of SIR models in forecasting COVID-19 epidemic: a case study of Isfahan10.1038/s41598-021-84055-62045-2322https://doaj.org/article/ce16070c22aa47f88c495d43a5ddb2fa2021-02-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-84055-6https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The multifaceted destructions caused by COVID-19 have been compared to that of World War II. What makes the situation even more complicated is the ambiguity about the duration and ultimate spread of the pandemic. It is especially critical for the governments, healthcare systems, and economic sectors to have an estimate of the future of this disaster. By using different mathematical approaches, including the classical susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and its derivatives, many investigators have tried to predict the outbreak of COVID-19. In this study, we simulated the epidemic in Isfahan province of Iran for the period from Feb 14th to April 11th and also forecasted the remaining course with three scenarios that differed in terms of the stringency level of social distancing. Despite the prediction of disease course in short-term intervals, the constructed SIR model was unable to forecast the actual spread and pattern of epidemic in the long term. Remarkably, most of the published SIR models developed to predict COVID-19 for other communities, suffered from the same inconformity. The SIR models are based on assumptions that seem not to be true in the case of the COVID-19 epidemic. Hence, more sophisticated modeling strategies and detailed knowledge of the biomedical and epidemiological aspects of the disease are needed to forecast the pandemic.Shiva MoeinNiloofar NickaeenAmir RoointanNiloofar BorhaniZarifeh HeidaryShaghayegh Haghjooy JavanmardJafar GhaisariYousof GheisariNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Shiva Moein Niloofar Nickaeen Amir Roointan Niloofar Borhani Zarifeh Heidary Shaghayegh Haghjooy Javanmard Jafar Ghaisari Yousof Gheisari Inefficiency of SIR models in forecasting COVID-19 epidemic: a case study of Isfahan
description	Abstract The multifaceted destructions caused by COVID-19 have been compared to that of World War II. What makes the situation even more complicated is the ambiguity about the duration and ultimate spread of the pandemic. It is especially critical for the governments, healthcare systems, and economic sectors to have an estimate of the future of this disaster. By using different mathematical approaches, including the classical susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and its derivatives, many investigators have tried to predict the outbreak of COVID-19. In this study, we simulated the epidemic in Isfahan province of Iran for the period from Feb 14th to April 11th and also forecasted the remaining course with three scenarios that differed in terms of the stringency level of social distancing. Despite the prediction of disease course in short-term intervals, the constructed SIR model was unable to forecast the actual spread and pattern of epidemic in the long term. Remarkably, most of the published SIR models developed to predict COVID-19 for other communities, suffered from the same inconformity. The SIR models are based on assumptions that seem not to be true in the case of the COVID-19 epidemic. Hence, more sophisticated modeling strategies and detailed knowledge of the biomedical and epidemiological aspects of the disease are needed to forecast the pandemic.
format	article
author	Shiva Moein Niloofar Nickaeen Amir Roointan Niloofar Borhani Zarifeh Heidary Shaghayegh Haghjooy Javanmard Jafar Ghaisari Yousof Gheisari
author_facet	Shiva Moein Niloofar Nickaeen Amir Roointan Niloofar Borhani Zarifeh Heidary Shaghayegh Haghjooy Javanmard Jafar Ghaisari Yousof Gheisari
author_sort	Shiva Moein
title	Inefficiency of SIR models in forecasting COVID-19 epidemic: a case study of Isfahan
title_short	Inefficiency of SIR models in forecasting COVID-19 epidemic: a case study of Isfahan
title_full	Inefficiency of SIR models in forecasting COVID-19 epidemic: a case study of Isfahan
title_fullStr	Inefficiency of SIR models in forecasting COVID-19 epidemic: a case study of Isfahan
title_full_unstemmed	Inefficiency of SIR models in forecasting COVID-19 epidemic: a case study of Isfahan
title_sort	inefficiency of sir models in forecasting covid-19 epidemic: a case study of isfahan
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/ce16070c22aa47f88c495d43a5ddb2fa
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Inefficiency of SIR models in forecasting COVID-19 epidemic: a case study of Isfahan

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