The effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in Thailand

Abstract The epidemic of leptospirosis in humans occurs annually in Thailand. In this study, we have developed mathematical models to investigate transmission dynamics between humans, animals, and a contaminated environment. We compared different leptospire transmission models involving flooding and...

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Autores principales:	Sudarat Chadsuthi, Karine Chalvet-Monfray, Anuwat Wiratsudakul, Charin Modchang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/ce59bcc983f647659ce2c0859df400c5
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ce59bcc983f647659ce2c0859df400c52021-12-02T14:01:33ZThe effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in Thailand10.1038/s41598-020-79546-x2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/ce59bcc983f647659ce2c0859df400c52021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-79546-xhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The epidemic of leptospirosis in humans occurs annually in Thailand. In this study, we have developed mathematical models to investigate transmission dynamics between humans, animals, and a contaminated environment. We compared different leptospire transmission models involving flooding and weather conditions, shedding and multiplication rate in a contaminated environment. We found that the model in which the transmission rate depends on both flooding and temperature, best-fits the reported human data on leptospirosis in Thailand. Our results indicate that flooding strongly contributes to disease transmission, where a high degree of flooding leads to a higher number of infected individuals. Sensitivity analysis showed that the transmission rate of leptospires from a contaminated environment was the most important parameter for the total number of human cases. Our results suggest that public education should target people who work in contaminated environments to prevent Leptospira infections.Sudarat ChadsuthiKarine Chalvet-MonfrayAnuwat WiratsudakulCharin ModchangNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Sudarat Chadsuthi Karine Chalvet-Monfray Anuwat Wiratsudakul Charin Modchang The effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in Thailand
description	Abstract The epidemic of leptospirosis in humans occurs annually in Thailand. In this study, we have developed mathematical models to investigate transmission dynamics between humans, animals, and a contaminated environment. We compared different leptospire transmission models involving flooding and weather conditions, shedding and multiplication rate in a contaminated environment. We found that the model in which the transmission rate depends on both flooding and temperature, best-fits the reported human data on leptospirosis in Thailand. Our results indicate that flooding strongly contributes to disease transmission, where a high degree of flooding leads to a higher number of infected individuals. Sensitivity analysis showed that the transmission rate of leptospires from a contaminated environment was the most important parameter for the total number of human cases. Our results suggest that public education should target people who work in contaminated environments to prevent Leptospira infections.
format	article
author	Sudarat Chadsuthi Karine Chalvet-Monfray Anuwat Wiratsudakul Charin Modchang
author_facet	Sudarat Chadsuthi Karine Chalvet-Monfray Anuwat Wiratsudakul Charin Modchang
author_sort	Sudarat Chadsuthi
title	The effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in Thailand
title_short	The effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in Thailand
title_full	The effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in Thailand
title_fullStr	The effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in Thailand
title_full_unstemmed	The effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in Thailand
title_sort	effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in thailand
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/ce59bcc983f647659ce2c0859df400c5
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The effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in Thailand

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