Impact of El Niño on Oil Palm Yield in Malaysia

Oil palm crop yield is sensitive to heat and drought. Therefore, El Niño events affect oil palm production, resulting in price fluctuations of crude palm oil due to global supply shortage. This study developed a new Fresh Fruit Bunch Index (FFBI) model based on the monthly oil palm fresh fruit bunch...

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Autores principales:	Jen Feng Khor, Lloyd Ling, Zulkifli Yusop, Wei Lun Tan, Joan Lucille Ling, Eugene Zhen Xiang Soo
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	oil palm extreme temperature El Niño yield modelling and prediction Agriculture S
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/ce6e1ac7a1de4b0aa89b71fabc2518e5
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ce6e1ac7a1de4b0aa89b71fabc2518e52021-11-25T16:05:56ZImpact of El Niño on Oil Palm Yield in Malaysia10.3390/agronomy111121892073-4395https://doaj.org/article/ce6e1ac7a1de4b0aa89b71fabc2518e52021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/11/11/2189https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4395Oil palm crop yield is sensitive to heat and drought. Therefore, El Niño events affect oil palm production, resulting in price fluctuations of crude palm oil due to global supply shortage. This study developed a new Fresh Fruit Bunch Index (FFBI) model based on the monthly oil palm fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield data, which correlates directly with the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) to model the impact of past El Niño events in Malaysia in terms of production and economic losses. FFBI is derived from Malaysian monthly FFB yields from January 1986 to July 2021 in the same way ONI is derived from monthly sea surface temperatures (SST). With FFBI model, the Malaysian oil palm yields are better correlated with ONI and have higher predictive ability. The descriptive and inferential statistical assessments show that the newly proposed FFBI time series model (adjusted R-squared = 0.9312 and residual median = 0.0051) has a better monthly oil palm yield predictive ability than the FFB model (adjusted R-squared = 0.8274 and residual median = 0.0077). The FFBI model also revealed an oil palm under yield concern of the Malaysian oil palm industry in the next thirty-month forecasted period from July 2021 to December 2023.Jen Feng KhorLloyd LingZulkifli YusopWei Lun TanJoan Lucille LingEugene Zhen Xiang SooMDPI AGarticleoil palmextreme temperatureEl Niñoyield modelling and predictionAgricultureSENAgronomy, Vol 11, Iss 2189, p 2189 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	oil palm extreme temperature El Niño yield modelling and prediction Agriculture S
spellingShingle	oil palm extreme temperature El Niño yield modelling and prediction Agriculture S Jen Feng Khor Lloyd Ling Zulkifli Yusop Wei Lun Tan Joan Lucille Ling Eugene Zhen Xiang Soo Impact of El Niño on Oil Palm Yield in Malaysia
description	Oil palm crop yield is sensitive to heat and drought. Therefore, El Niño events affect oil palm production, resulting in price fluctuations of crude palm oil due to global supply shortage. This study developed a new Fresh Fruit Bunch Index (FFBI) model based on the monthly oil palm fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield data, which correlates directly with the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) to model the impact of past El Niño events in Malaysia in terms of production and economic losses. FFBI is derived from Malaysian monthly FFB yields from January 1986 to July 2021 in the same way ONI is derived from monthly sea surface temperatures (SST). With FFBI model, the Malaysian oil palm yields are better correlated with ONI and have higher predictive ability. The descriptive and inferential statistical assessments show that the newly proposed FFBI time series model (adjusted R-squared = 0.9312 and residual median = 0.0051) has a better monthly oil palm yield predictive ability than the FFB model (adjusted R-squared = 0.8274 and residual median = 0.0077). The FFBI model also revealed an oil palm under yield concern of the Malaysian oil palm industry in the next thirty-month forecasted period from July 2021 to December 2023.
format	article
author	Jen Feng Khor Lloyd Ling Zulkifli Yusop Wei Lun Tan Joan Lucille Ling Eugene Zhen Xiang Soo
author_facet	Jen Feng Khor Lloyd Ling Zulkifli Yusop Wei Lun Tan Joan Lucille Ling Eugene Zhen Xiang Soo
author_sort	Jen Feng Khor
title	Impact of El Niño on Oil Palm Yield in Malaysia
title_short	Impact of El Niño on Oil Palm Yield in Malaysia
title_full	Impact of El Niño on Oil Palm Yield in Malaysia
title_fullStr	Impact of El Niño on Oil Palm Yield in Malaysia
title_full_unstemmed	Impact of El Niño on Oil Palm Yield in Malaysia
title_sort	impact of el niño on oil palm yield in malaysia
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/ce6e1ac7a1de4b0aa89b71fabc2518e5
work_keys_str_mv	AT jenfengkhor impactofelninoonoilpalmyieldinmalaysia AT lloydling impactofelninoonoilpalmyieldinmalaysia AT zulkifliyusop impactofelninoonoilpalmyieldinmalaysia AT weiluntan impactofelninoonoilpalmyieldinmalaysia AT joanlucilleling impactofelninoonoilpalmyieldinmalaysia AT eugenezhenxiangsoo impactofelninoonoilpalmyieldinmalaysia
_version_	1718413343066161152

Impact of El Niño on Oil Palm Yield in Malaysia

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