Modelling of HIV prevention and treatment progress in five South African metropolitan districts

Abstract Globally, large proportions of HIV-positive populations live in cities. The Fast-Track cities project aims to advance progress toward elimination of HIV as a public health threat by accelerating the response in cities across the world. This study applies a well-established HIV transmission...

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Autores principales:	Cari van Schalkwyk, Rob E. Dorrington, Thapelo Seatlhodi, Claudia Velasquez, Ali Feizzadeh, Leigh F. Johnson
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/ce830dffcc6947a59d01f6e052498c70
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:ce830dffcc6947a59d01f6e052498c702021-12-02T11:37:19ZModelling of HIV prevention and treatment progress in five South African metropolitan districts10.1038/s41598-021-85154-02045-2322https://doaj.org/article/ce830dffcc6947a59d01f6e052498c702021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-85154-0https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Globally, large proportions of HIV-positive populations live in cities. The Fast-Track cities project aims to advance progress toward elimination of HIV as a public health threat by accelerating the response in cities across the world. This study applies a well-established HIV transmission model to provide key HIV estimates for the five largest metropolitan districts in South Africa (SA): Cape Town, Ekurhuleni, eThekwini, Johannesburg and Tshwane. We calibrate the model to metro-specific data sources and estimate progress toward the 90-90-90 targets set by UNAIDS (90% of people living with HIV (PLHIV) diagnosed, 90% of those diagnosed on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and viral suppression in 90% of those on ART). We use the model to predict progress towards similarly defined 95-95-95 targets in 2030. In SA, 90.5% of PLHIV were diagnosed in 2018, with metro estimates ranging from 86% in Johannesburg to 92% in eThekwini. However, only 68.4% of HIV-diagnosed individuals nationally were on ART in 2018, with the proportion ranging from 56% in Tshwane to 73% in eThekwini. Fractions of ART users who were virally suppressed ranged from 77% in Ekurhuleni to 91% in eThekwini, compared to 86% in the whole country. All five metros are making good progress to reach diagnosis targets and all (with the exception of Ekurhuleni) are expected to reach viral suppression targets in 2020. However, the metros and South Africa face severe challenges in reaching the 90% ART treatment target.Cari van SchalkwykRob E. DorringtonThapelo SeatlhodiClaudia VelasquezAli FeizzadehLeigh F. JohnsonNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Cari van Schalkwyk Rob E. Dorrington Thapelo Seatlhodi Claudia Velasquez Ali Feizzadeh Leigh F. Johnson Modelling of HIV prevention and treatment progress in five South African metropolitan districts
description	Abstract Globally, large proportions of HIV-positive populations live in cities. The Fast-Track cities project aims to advance progress toward elimination of HIV as a public health threat by accelerating the response in cities across the world. This study applies a well-established HIV transmission model to provide key HIV estimates for the five largest metropolitan districts in South Africa (SA): Cape Town, Ekurhuleni, eThekwini, Johannesburg and Tshwane. We calibrate the model to metro-specific data sources and estimate progress toward the 90-90-90 targets set by UNAIDS (90% of people living with HIV (PLHIV) diagnosed, 90% of those diagnosed on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and viral suppression in 90% of those on ART). We use the model to predict progress towards similarly defined 95-95-95 targets in 2030. In SA, 90.5% of PLHIV were diagnosed in 2018, with metro estimates ranging from 86% in Johannesburg to 92% in eThekwini. However, only 68.4% of HIV-diagnosed individuals nationally were on ART in 2018, with the proportion ranging from 56% in Tshwane to 73% in eThekwini. Fractions of ART users who were virally suppressed ranged from 77% in Ekurhuleni to 91% in eThekwini, compared to 86% in the whole country. All five metros are making good progress to reach diagnosis targets and all (with the exception of Ekurhuleni) are expected to reach viral suppression targets in 2020. However, the metros and South Africa face severe challenges in reaching the 90% ART treatment target.
format	article
author	Cari van Schalkwyk Rob E. Dorrington Thapelo Seatlhodi Claudia Velasquez Ali Feizzadeh Leigh F. Johnson
author_facet	Cari van Schalkwyk Rob E. Dorrington Thapelo Seatlhodi Claudia Velasquez Ali Feizzadeh Leigh F. Johnson
author_sort	Cari van Schalkwyk
title	Modelling of HIV prevention and treatment progress in five South African metropolitan districts
title_short	Modelling of HIV prevention and treatment progress in five South African metropolitan districts
title_full	Modelling of HIV prevention and treatment progress in five South African metropolitan districts
title_fullStr	Modelling of HIV prevention and treatment progress in five South African metropolitan districts
title_full_unstemmed	Modelling of HIV prevention and treatment progress in five South African metropolitan districts
title_sort	modelling of hiv prevention and treatment progress in five south african metropolitan districts
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/ce830dffcc6947a59d01f6e052498c70
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Modelling of HIV prevention and treatment progress in five South African metropolitan districts

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