Policies for Rapid Mitigation of the Crisis’ Effects on Agricultural Supply Chains: A Multi-Criteria Decision Support System with Monte Carlo Simulation

This paper proposes an integrated approach towards rapid decision-making in the agricultural sector aimed at improvement of its resilience. Methodologically, we seek to devise a framework that is able to take the uncertainty regarding policy preferences into account. Empirically, we focus on the eff...

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Autores principales:	Tomas Baležentis, Mangirdas Morkūnas, Agnė Žičkienė, Artiom Volkov, Erika Ribašauskienė, Dalia Štreimikienė
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	MDPI AG 2021
Materias:	multi-criteria decision making resilience crisis Monte Carlo simulation Lithuania COVID-19 Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/cf1dac04b57f414a8699c4010e719e18
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:cf1dac04b57f414a8699c4010e719e182021-11-11T19:35:35ZPolicies for Rapid Mitigation of the Crisis’ Effects on Agricultural Supply Chains: A Multi-Criteria Decision Support System with Monte Carlo Simulation10.3390/su1321118992071-1050https://doaj.org/article/cf1dac04b57f414a8699c4010e719e182021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/21/11899https://doaj.org/toc/2071-1050This paper proposes an integrated approach towards rapid decision-making in the agricultural sector aimed at improvement of its resilience. Methodologically, we seek to devise a framework that is able to take the uncertainty regarding policy preferences into account. Empirically, we focus on the effects of COVID-19 on agriculture. First, we propose a multi-criteria decision-making framework following the Pugh matrix approach for group decision-making. The Monte Carlo simulation is used to check the effects of the perturbations in the criteria weights. Then, we identify the factors behind agricultural resilience and organize them into the three groups (food security, agricultural viability, decent jobs). The expert survey is carried out to elicit the ratings in regard to the expected effects of the policy measures with respect to dimensions of agricultural resilience. The case of Lithuania is considered in the empirical analysis. The existing and newly proposed agricultural policy measures are taken into account. The measures related to alleviation of the financial burden (e.g., credit payment deferral) appear to be the most effective in accordance with the expert ratings.Tomas BaležentisMangirdas MorkūnasAgnė ŽičkienėArtiom VolkovErika RibašauskienėDalia ŠtreimikienėMDPI AGarticlemulti-criteria decision makingresiliencecrisisMonte Carlo simulationLithuaniaCOVID-19Environmental effects of industries and plantsTD194-195Renewable energy sourcesTJ807-830Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENSustainability, Vol 13, Iss 11899, p 11899 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	multi-criteria decision making resilience crisis Monte Carlo simulation Lithuania COVID-19 Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	multi-criteria decision making resilience crisis Monte Carlo simulation Lithuania COVID-19 Environmental effects of industries and plants TD194-195 Renewable energy sources TJ807-830 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Tomas Baležentis Mangirdas Morkūnas Agnė Žičkienė Artiom Volkov Erika Ribašauskienė Dalia Štreimikienė Policies for Rapid Mitigation of the Crisis’ Effects on Agricultural Supply Chains: A Multi-Criteria Decision Support System with Monte Carlo Simulation
description	This paper proposes an integrated approach towards rapid decision-making in the agricultural sector aimed at improvement of its resilience. Methodologically, we seek to devise a framework that is able to take the uncertainty regarding policy preferences into account. Empirically, we focus on the effects of COVID-19 on agriculture. First, we propose a multi-criteria decision-making framework following the Pugh matrix approach for group decision-making. The Monte Carlo simulation is used to check the effects of the perturbations in the criteria weights. Then, we identify the factors behind agricultural resilience and organize them into the three groups (food security, agricultural viability, decent jobs). The expert survey is carried out to elicit the ratings in regard to the expected effects of the policy measures with respect to dimensions of agricultural resilience. The case of Lithuania is considered in the empirical analysis. The existing and newly proposed agricultural policy measures are taken into account. The measures related to alleviation of the financial burden (e.g., credit payment deferral) appear to be the most effective in accordance with the expert ratings.
format	article
author	Tomas Baležentis Mangirdas Morkūnas Agnė Žičkienė Artiom Volkov Erika Ribašauskienė Dalia Štreimikienė
author_facet	Tomas Baležentis Mangirdas Morkūnas Agnė Žičkienė Artiom Volkov Erika Ribašauskienė Dalia Štreimikienė
author_sort	Tomas Baležentis
title	Policies for Rapid Mitigation of the Crisis’ Effects on Agricultural Supply Chains: A Multi-Criteria Decision Support System with Monte Carlo Simulation
title_short	Policies for Rapid Mitigation of the Crisis’ Effects on Agricultural Supply Chains: A Multi-Criteria Decision Support System with Monte Carlo Simulation
title_full	Policies for Rapid Mitigation of the Crisis’ Effects on Agricultural Supply Chains: A Multi-Criteria Decision Support System with Monte Carlo Simulation
title_fullStr	Policies for Rapid Mitigation of the Crisis’ Effects on Agricultural Supply Chains: A Multi-Criteria Decision Support System with Monte Carlo Simulation
title_full_unstemmed	Policies for Rapid Mitigation of the Crisis’ Effects on Agricultural Supply Chains: A Multi-Criteria Decision Support System with Monte Carlo Simulation
title_sort	policies for rapid mitigation of the crisis’ effects on agricultural supply chains: a multi-criteria decision support system with monte carlo simulation
publisher	MDPI AG
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/cf1dac04b57f414a8699c4010e719e18
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Policies for Rapid Mitigation of the Crisis’ Effects on Agricultural Supply Chains: A Multi-Criteria Decision Support System with Monte Carlo Simulation

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