THE PREDICTION OF ENTERPRISES ACTIVITY INDICATORS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE INITIAL DATA UNCERTAINTY

The mathematical method of making forecasts when the initial data uncertainty have been considered. To obtain point and interval estimates of the parameters of mathematical models that take into account errors in the values of the function and argument, the use methods of confluent analysis has been...

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Autores principales:	Yu. Gagarin, S. Gagarina
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	RU
Publicado:	Publishing House of the State University of Management 2019
Materias:	prediction uncertainty parameter estimates input data confidence intervals confluent analysis Sociology (General) HM401-1281 Economics as a science HB71-74
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/cf5d254714864de7a14bb3538dca1296
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:cf5d254714864de7a14bb3538dca12962021-12-03T07:43:27ZTHE PREDICTION OF ENTERPRISES ACTIVITY INDICATORS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE INITIAL DATA UNCERTAINTY1816-42772686-841510.26425/1816-4277-2019-1-94-99https://doaj.org/article/cf5d254714864de7a14bb3538dca12962019-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://vestnik.guu.ru/jour/article/view/1259https://doaj.org/toc/1816-4277https://doaj.org/toc/2686-8415The mathematical method of making forecasts when the initial data uncertainty have been considered. To obtain point and interval estimates of the parameters of mathematical models that take into account errors in the values of the function and argument, the use methods of confluent analysis has been proposed. For linear models, point estimates and confidence intervals of predictions have been found. The developed method is used to solve the problem of forecasting the volume of services provided by organizations of the housing and utilities complex. The sales volume simulating for different values of time intervals has been conducted and the influence of the initial information error on the model parameter values and predicted values has been analyzed.Yu. GagarinS. GagarinaPublishing House of the State University of Managementarticlepredictionuncertaintyparameter estimatesinput dataconfidence intervalsconfluent analysisSociology (General)HM401-1281Economics as a scienceHB71-74RUВестник университета, Vol 0, Iss 1, Pp 94-99 (2019)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	RU
topic	prediction uncertainty parameter estimates input data confidence intervals confluent analysis Sociology (General) HM401-1281 Economics as a science HB71-74
spellingShingle	prediction uncertainty parameter estimates input data confidence intervals confluent analysis Sociology (General) HM401-1281 Economics as a science HB71-74 Yu. Gagarin S. Gagarina THE PREDICTION OF ENTERPRISES ACTIVITY INDICATORS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE INITIAL DATA UNCERTAINTY
description	The mathematical method of making forecasts when the initial data uncertainty have been considered. To obtain point and interval estimates of the parameters of mathematical models that take into account errors in the values of the function and argument, the use methods of confluent analysis has been proposed. For linear models, point estimates and confidence intervals of predictions have been found. The developed method is used to solve the problem of forecasting the volume of services provided by organizations of the housing and utilities complex. The sales volume simulating for different values of time intervals has been conducted and the influence of the initial information error on the model parameter values and predicted values has been analyzed.
format	article
author	Yu. Gagarin S. Gagarina
author_facet	Yu. Gagarin S. Gagarina
author_sort	Yu. Gagarin
title	THE PREDICTION OF ENTERPRISES ACTIVITY INDICATORS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE INITIAL DATA UNCERTAINTY
title_short	THE PREDICTION OF ENTERPRISES ACTIVITY INDICATORS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE INITIAL DATA UNCERTAINTY
title_full	THE PREDICTION OF ENTERPRISES ACTIVITY INDICATORS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE INITIAL DATA UNCERTAINTY
title_fullStr	THE PREDICTION OF ENTERPRISES ACTIVITY INDICATORS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE INITIAL DATA UNCERTAINTY
title_full_unstemmed	THE PREDICTION OF ENTERPRISES ACTIVITY INDICATORS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE INITIAL DATA UNCERTAINTY
title_sort	prediction of enterprises activity indicators taking into account the initial data uncertainty
publisher	Publishing House of the State University of Management
publishDate	2019
url	https://doaj.org/article/cf5d254714864de7a14bb3538dca1296
work_keys_str_mv	AT yugagarin thepredictionofenterprisesactivityindicatorstakingintoaccounttheinitialdatauncertainty AT sgagarina thepredictionofenterprisesactivityindicatorstakingintoaccounttheinitialdatauncertainty AT yugagarin predictionofenterprisesactivityindicatorstakingintoaccounttheinitialdatauncertainty AT sgagarina predictionofenterprisesactivityindicatorstakingintoaccounttheinitialdatauncertainty
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THE PREDICTION OF ENTERPRISES ACTIVITY INDICATORS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE INITIAL DATA UNCERTAINTY

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