Biting midge dynamics and bluetongue transmission: a multiscale model linking catch data with climate and disease outbreaks

Abstract Bluetongue virus (BTV) serotype 8 has been circulating in Europe since a major outbreak occurred in 2006, causing economic losses to livestock farms. The unpredictability of the biting activity of midges that transmit BTV implies difficulty in computing accurate transmission models. This st...

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Autores principales:	Tim W. R. Möhlmann, Matt J. Keeling, Uno Wennergren, Guido Favia, Inge Santman-Berends, Willem Takken, Constantianus J. M. Koenraadt, Samuel P. C. Brand
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d027910e53144cf6b3d9c7ff3076e3f1
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d027910e53144cf6b3d9c7ff3076e3f12021-12-02T15:23:28ZBiting midge dynamics and bluetongue transmission: a multiscale model linking catch data with climate and disease outbreaks10.1038/s41598-021-81096-92045-2322https://doaj.org/article/d027910e53144cf6b3d9c7ff3076e3f12021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-81096-9https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Bluetongue virus (BTV) serotype 8 has been circulating in Europe since a major outbreak occurred in 2006, causing economic losses to livestock farms. The unpredictability of the biting activity of midges that transmit BTV implies difficulty in computing accurate transmission models. This study uniquely integrates field collections of midges at a range of European latitudes (in Sweden, The Netherlands, and Italy), with a multi-scale modelling approach. We inferred the environmental factors that influence the dynamics of midge catching, and then directly linked predicted midge catches to BTV transmission dynamics. Catch predictions were linked to the observed prevalence amongst sentinel cattle during the 2007 BTV outbreak in The Netherlands using a dynamic transmission model. We were able to directly infer a scaling parameter between daily midge catch predictions and the true biting rate per cow per day. Compared to biting rate per cow per day the scaling parameter was around 50% of 24 h midge catches with traps. Extending the estimated biting rate across Europe, for different seasons and years, indicated that whilst intensity of transmission is expected to vary widely from herd to herd, around 95% of naïve herds in western Europe have been at risk of sustained transmission over the last 15 years.Tim W. R. MöhlmannMatt J. KeelingUno WennergrenGuido FaviaInge Santman-BerendsWillem TakkenConstantianus J. M. KoenraadtSamuel P. C. BrandNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-16 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Tim W. R. Möhlmann Matt J. Keeling Uno Wennergren Guido Favia Inge Santman-Berends Willem Takken Constantianus J. M. Koenraadt Samuel P. C. Brand Biting midge dynamics and bluetongue transmission: a multiscale model linking catch data with climate and disease outbreaks
description	Abstract Bluetongue virus (BTV) serotype 8 has been circulating in Europe since a major outbreak occurred in 2006, causing economic losses to livestock farms. The unpredictability of the biting activity of midges that transmit BTV implies difficulty in computing accurate transmission models. This study uniquely integrates field collections of midges at a range of European latitudes (in Sweden, The Netherlands, and Italy), with a multi-scale modelling approach. We inferred the environmental factors that influence the dynamics of midge catching, and then directly linked predicted midge catches to BTV transmission dynamics. Catch predictions were linked to the observed prevalence amongst sentinel cattle during the 2007 BTV outbreak in The Netherlands using a dynamic transmission model. We were able to directly infer a scaling parameter between daily midge catch predictions and the true biting rate per cow per day. Compared to biting rate per cow per day the scaling parameter was around 50% of 24 h midge catches with traps. Extending the estimated biting rate across Europe, for different seasons and years, indicated that whilst intensity of transmission is expected to vary widely from herd to herd, around 95% of naïve herds in western Europe have been at risk of sustained transmission over the last 15 years.
format	article
author	Tim W. R. Möhlmann Matt J. Keeling Uno Wennergren Guido Favia Inge Santman-Berends Willem Takken Constantianus J. M. Koenraadt Samuel P. C. Brand
author_facet	Tim W. R. Möhlmann Matt J. Keeling Uno Wennergren Guido Favia Inge Santman-Berends Willem Takken Constantianus J. M. Koenraadt Samuel P. C. Brand
author_sort	Tim W. R. Möhlmann
title	Biting midge dynamics and bluetongue transmission: a multiscale model linking catch data with climate and disease outbreaks
title_short	Biting midge dynamics and bluetongue transmission: a multiscale model linking catch data with climate and disease outbreaks
title_full	Biting midge dynamics and bluetongue transmission: a multiscale model linking catch data with climate and disease outbreaks
title_fullStr	Biting midge dynamics and bluetongue transmission: a multiscale model linking catch data with climate and disease outbreaks
title_full_unstemmed	Biting midge dynamics and bluetongue transmission: a multiscale model linking catch data with climate and disease outbreaks
title_sort	biting midge dynamics and bluetongue transmission: a multiscale model linking catch data with climate and disease outbreaks
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d027910e53144cf6b3d9c7ff3076e3f1
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Biting midge dynamics and bluetongue transmission: a multiscale model linking catch data with climate and disease outbreaks

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