Application of the HBV model for the future projections of water levels using dynamically downscaled global climate model data

The Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model was used to project the future water levels of the Mackenzie River at selected stations. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was utilized to dynamically downscale the Global Climate Model data. The calibrated and validated HBV mo...

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Autores principales:	Lia Pervin, Thian Yew Gan, Hester Scheepers, Md Saiful Islam
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	downscaling future projection gcm hbv model water level wrf model Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d036de2cec0240a5a4fd3049561ade30
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d036de2cec0240a5a4fd3049561ade302021-11-05T19:07:28ZApplication of the HBV model for the future projections of water levels using dynamically downscaled global climate model data2040-22442408-935410.2166/wcc.2021.302https://doaj.org/article/d036de2cec0240a5a4fd3049561ade302021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/6/2364https://doaj.org/toc/2040-2244https://doaj.org/toc/2408-9354The Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model was used to project the future water levels of the Mackenzie River at selected stations. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was utilized to dynamically downscale the Global Climate Model data. The calibrated and validated HBV model was run with the WRF downscaled CanESM2 data and with the PCIC data for the historical (1979–2005) period, and then compared with the observed flow data at the Fort Simpson station and the Arctic Red River station. The simulated streamflow showed a good correlation with the observed streamflow (R2 value was around 0.85). The HBV model was then forced with the bias-corrected WRF downscaled daily rainfall and temperature data driven by the CanESM2 RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios to simulate the future streamflow for the 2041–2070 period. Rating curves were used to convert streamflow to water levels. At the Fort Simpson station, mean flow was projected to decrease by about 5% under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, whereas the peak flow was likely to reduce by about 12 and 9% for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, in the 2050s. The projected lower water levels could affect the navigability and the northern ferry operations of the Mackenzie River. HIGHLIGHTS In this study, the Global Climate Model data for 2041–2070 were dynamically downscaled into a regional scale by the Weather Research and Forecasting model.; A conceptual hydrological model (HBV) was utilized to simulate the streamflow for the 2050s.; Reduced water levels were projected during the summer season in the 2050s which could affect the northern water transport system of Canada.;Lia PervinThian Yew GanHester ScheepersMd Saiful IslamIWA Publishingarticledownscalingfuture projectiongcmhbv modelwater levelwrf modelEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENJournal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 12, Iss 6, Pp 2364-2377 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	downscaling future projection gcm hbv model water level wrf model Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	downscaling future projection gcm hbv model water level wrf model Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Lia Pervin Thian Yew Gan Hester Scheepers Md Saiful Islam Application of the HBV model for the future projections of water levels using dynamically downscaled global climate model data
description	The Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model was used to project the future water levels of the Mackenzie River at selected stations. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was utilized to dynamically downscale the Global Climate Model data. The calibrated and validated HBV model was run with the WRF downscaled CanESM2 data and with the PCIC data for the historical (1979–2005) period, and then compared with the observed flow data at the Fort Simpson station and the Arctic Red River station. The simulated streamflow showed a good correlation with the observed streamflow (R2 value was around 0.85). The HBV model was then forced with the bias-corrected WRF downscaled daily rainfall and temperature data driven by the CanESM2 RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios to simulate the future streamflow for the 2041–2070 period. Rating curves were used to convert streamflow to water levels. At the Fort Simpson station, mean flow was projected to decrease by about 5% under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, whereas the peak flow was likely to reduce by about 12 and 9% for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, in the 2050s. The projected lower water levels could affect the navigability and the northern ferry operations of the Mackenzie River. HIGHLIGHTS In this study, the Global Climate Model data for 2041–2070 were dynamically downscaled into a regional scale by the Weather Research and Forecasting model.; A conceptual hydrological model (HBV) was utilized to simulate the streamflow for the 2050s.; Reduced water levels were projected during the summer season in the 2050s which could affect the northern water transport system of Canada.;
format	article
author	Lia Pervin Thian Yew Gan Hester Scheepers Md Saiful Islam
author_facet	Lia Pervin Thian Yew Gan Hester Scheepers Md Saiful Islam
author_sort	Lia Pervin
title	Application of the HBV model for the future projections of water levels using dynamically downscaled global climate model data
title_short	Application of the HBV model for the future projections of water levels using dynamically downscaled global climate model data
title_full	Application of the HBV model for the future projections of water levels using dynamically downscaled global climate model data
title_fullStr	Application of the HBV model for the future projections of water levels using dynamically downscaled global climate model data
title_full_unstemmed	Application of the HBV model for the future projections of water levels using dynamically downscaled global climate model data
title_sort	application of the hbv model for the future projections of water levels using dynamically downscaled global climate model data
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d036de2cec0240a5a4fd3049561ade30
work_keys_str_mv	AT liapervin applicationofthehbvmodelforthefutureprojectionsofwaterlevelsusingdynamicallydownscaledglobalclimatemodeldata AT thianyewgan applicationofthehbvmodelforthefutureprojectionsofwaterlevelsusingdynamicallydownscaledglobalclimatemodeldata AT hesterscheepers applicationofthehbvmodelforthefutureprojectionsofwaterlevelsusingdynamicallydownscaledglobalclimatemodeldata AT mdsaifulislam applicationofthehbvmodelforthefutureprojectionsofwaterlevelsusingdynamicallydownscaledglobalclimatemodeldata
_version_	1718444067662069760

Application of the HBV model for the future projections of water levels using dynamically downscaled global climate model data

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