Human mobility networks, travel restrictions, and the global spread of 2009 H1N1 pandemic.

After the emergence of the H1N1 influenza in 2009, some countries responded with travel-related controls during the early stage of the outbreak in an attempt to contain or slow down its international spread. These controls along with self-imposed travel limitations contributed to a decline of about...

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Autores principales:	Paolo Bajardi, Chiara Poletto, Jose J Ramasco, Michele Tizzoni, Vittoria Colizza, Alessandro Vespignani
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2011
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d0b39eeff5a94190baebf4f379ce2464
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d0b39eeff5a94190baebf4f379ce24642021-11-18T06:59:31ZHuman mobility networks, travel restrictions, and the global spread of 2009 H1N1 pandemic.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0016591https://doaj.org/article/d0b39eeff5a94190baebf4f379ce24642011-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/21304943/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203After the emergence of the H1N1 influenza in 2009, some countries responded with travel-related controls during the early stage of the outbreak in an attempt to contain or slow down its international spread. These controls along with self-imposed travel limitations contributed to a decline of about 40% in international air traffic to/from Mexico following the international alert. However, no containment was achieved by such restrictions and the virus was able to reach pandemic proportions in a short time. When gauging the value and efficacy of mobility and travel restrictions it is crucial to rely on epidemic models that integrate the wide range of features characterizing human mobility and the many options available to public health organizations for responding to a pandemic. Here we present a comprehensive computational and theoretical study of the role of travel restrictions in halting and delaying pandemics by using a model that explicitly integrates air travel and short-range mobility data with high-resolution demographic data across the world and that is validated by the accumulation of data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We explore alternative scenarios for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic by assessing the potential impact of mobility restrictions that vary with respect to their magnitude and their position in the pandemic timeline. We provide a quantitative discussion of the delay obtained by different mobility restrictions and the likelihood of containing outbreaks of infectious diseases at their source, confirming the limited value and feasibility of international travel restrictions. These results are rationalized in the theoretical framework characterizing the invasion dynamics of the epidemics at the metapopulation level.Paolo BajardiChiara PolettoJose J RamascoMichele TizzoniVittoria ColizzaAlessandro VespignaniPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 6, Iss 1, p e16591 (2011)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Paolo Bajardi Chiara Poletto Jose J Ramasco Michele Tizzoni Vittoria Colizza Alessandro Vespignani Human mobility networks, travel restrictions, and the global spread of 2009 H1N1 pandemic.
description	After the emergence of the H1N1 influenza in 2009, some countries responded with travel-related controls during the early stage of the outbreak in an attempt to contain or slow down its international spread. These controls along with self-imposed travel limitations contributed to a decline of about 40% in international air traffic to/from Mexico following the international alert. However, no containment was achieved by such restrictions and the virus was able to reach pandemic proportions in a short time. When gauging the value and efficacy of mobility and travel restrictions it is crucial to rely on epidemic models that integrate the wide range of features characterizing human mobility and the many options available to public health organizations for responding to a pandemic. Here we present a comprehensive computational and theoretical study of the role of travel restrictions in halting and delaying pandemics by using a model that explicitly integrates air travel and short-range mobility data with high-resolution demographic data across the world and that is validated by the accumulation of data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We explore alternative scenarios for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic by assessing the potential impact of mobility restrictions that vary with respect to their magnitude and their position in the pandemic timeline. We provide a quantitative discussion of the delay obtained by different mobility restrictions and the likelihood of containing outbreaks of infectious diseases at their source, confirming the limited value and feasibility of international travel restrictions. These results are rationalized in the theoretical framework characterizing the invasion dynamics of the epidemics at the metapopulation level.
format	article
author	Paolo Bajardi Chiara Poletto Jose J Ramasco Michele Tizzoni Vittoria Colizza Alessandro Vespignani
author_facet	Paolo Bajardi Chiara Poletto Jose J Ramasco Michele Tizzoni Vittoria Colizza Alessandro Vespignani
author_sort	Paolo Bajardi
title	Human mobility networks, travel restrictions, and the global spread of 2009 H1N1 pandemic.
title_short	Human mobility networks, travel restrictions, and the global spread of 2009 H1N1 pandemic.
title_full	Human mobility networks, travel restrictions, and the global spread of 2009 H1N1 pandemic.
title_fullStr	Human mobility networks, travel restrictions, and the global spread of 2009 H1N1 pandemic.
title_full_unstemmed	Human mobility networks, travel restrictions, and the global spread of 2009 H1N1 pandemic.
title_sort	human mobility networks, travel restrictions, and the global spread of 2009 h1n1 pandemic.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2011
url	https://doaj.org/article/d0b39eeff5a94190baebf4f379ce2464
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Human mobility networks, travel restrictions, and the global spread of 2009 H1N1 pandemic.

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