Assessment of temporal change in the tails of probability distribution of daily precipitation over India due to climatic shift in the 1970s

Daily precipitation extremes are crucial in the hydrological design of major water control structures and are expected to show a changing tendency over time due to climate change. The magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation can be assessed by studying the upper tail behavior of probability...

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Autores principales:	Neha Gupta, Sagar Rohidas Chavan
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	daily precipitation extremes global climatic shift heavy-tailed distribution light-tailed distribution Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d1949cabdc324fafa5cf01974df80e8b
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d1949cabdc324fafa5cf01974df80e8b2021-11-05T19:08:03ZAssessment of temporal change in the tails of probability distribution of daily precipitation over India due to climatic shift in the 1970s2040-22442408-935410.2166/wcc.2021.008https://doaj.org/article/d1949cabdc324fafa5cf01974df80e8b2021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/6/2753https://doaj.org/toc/2040-2244https://doaj.org/toc/2408-9354Daily precipitation extremes are crucial in the hydrological design of major water control structures and are expected to show a changing tendency over time due to climate change. The magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation can be assessed by studying the upper tail behavior of probability distributions of daily precipitation. Depending on the tail behavior, the distributions can be classified into two categories: heavy-tailed and light-tailed distributions. Heavier tails indicate more frequent occurrences of extreme precipitation events. In this paper, we have analyzed the temporal change in the tail behavior of daily precipitation over India from pre- to post-1970 time periods as per the global climatic shift. A modified Probability Ratio Mean Square Error norm is used to identify the best-fit distribution to the tails of daily precipitation among four theoretical distributions (e.g., Pareto-type II, Lognormal, Weibull, and Gamma distributions). The results indicate that the Lognormal distribution, which is a heavy-tailed distribution, fits the tails of daily precipitation for the majority of the grids. It is inferred from the study that there is an increase in the heaviness of tails of daily precipitation data over India from pre- to post-1970 time periods. HIGHLIGHTS This paper attempts to assess the changes in the tail behavior of daily precipitation over India due to climatic shift in the 1970s.; Maps show best-suited probability distributions for pre-/post-1970s and highlight the changes.; Results highlight the use of heavy-tailed probability distributions for analyzing the extreme precipitation.; A significant increase in heaviness of tails is noticed from pre- to post-1970 time periods.;Neha GuptaSagar Rohidas ChavanIWA Publishingarticledaily precipitation extremesglobal climatic shiftheavy-tailed distributionlight-tailed distributionEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENJournal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 12, Iss 6, Pp 2753-2773 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	daily precipitation extremes global climatic shift heavy-tailed distribution light-tailed distribution Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	daily precipitation extremes global climatic shift heavy-tailed distribution light-tailed distribution Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Neha Gupta Sagar Rohidas Chavan Assessment of temporal change in the tails of probability distribution of daily precipitation over India due to climatic shift in the 1970s
description	Daily precipitation extremes are crucial in the hydrological design of major water control structures and are expected to show a changing tendency over time due to climate change. The magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation can be assessed by studying the upper tail behavior of probability distributions of daily precipitation. Depending on the tail behavior, the distributions can be classified into two categories: heavy-tailed and light-tailed distributions. Heavier tails indicate more frequent occurrences of extreme precipitation events. In this paper, we have analyzed the temporal change in the tail behavior of daily precipitation over India from pre- to post-1970 time periods as per the global climatic shift. A modified Probability Ratio Mean Square Error norm is used to identify the best-fit distribution to the tails of daily precipitation among four theoretical distributions (e.g., Pareto-type II, Lognormal, Weibull, and Gamma distributions). The results indicate that the Lognormal distribution, which is a heavy-tailed distribution, fits the tails of daily precipitation for the majority of the grids. It is inferred from the study that there is an increase in the heaviness of tails of daily precipitation data over India from pre- to post-1970 time periods. HIGHLIGHTS This paper attempts to assess the changes in the tail behavior of daily precipitation over India due to climatic shift in the 1970s.; Maps show best-suited probability distributions for pre-/post-1970s and highlight the changes.; Results highlight the use of heavy-tailed probability distributions for analyzing the extreme precipitation.; A significant increase in heaviness of tails is noticed from pre- to post-1970 time periods.;
format	article
author	Neha Gupta Sagar Rohidas Chavan
author_facet	Neha Gupta Sagar Rohidas Chavan
author_sort	Neha Gupta
title	Assessment of temporal change in the tails of probability distribution of daily precipitation over India due to climatic shift in the 1970s
title_short	Assessment of temporal change in the tails of probability distribution of daily precipitation over India due to climatic shift in the 1970s
title_full	Assessment of temporal change in the tails of probability distribution of daily precipitation over India due to climatic shift in the 1970s
title_fullStr	Assessment of temporal change in the tails of probability distribution of daily precipitation over India due to climatic shift in the 1970s
title_full_unstemmed	Assessment of temporal change in the tails of probability distribution of daily precipitation over India due to climatic shift in the 1970s
title_sort	assessment of temporal change in the tails of probability distribution of daily precipitation over india due to climatic shift in the 1970s
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d1949cabdc324fafa5cf01974df80e8b
work_keys_str_mv	AT nehagupta assessmentoftemporalchangeinthetailsofprobabilitydistributionofdailyprecipitationoverindiaduetoclimaticshiftinthe1970s AT sagarrohidaschavan assessmentoftemporalchangeinthetailsofprobabilitydistributionofdailyprecipitationoverindiaduetoclimaticshiftinthe1970s
_version_	1718444068494639104

Assessment of temporal change in the tails of probability distribution of daily precipitation over India due to climatic shift in the 1970s

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