Conflict and the composition of economic activity in Afghanistan

Despite informality being the norm in conflict-affected countries, most estimates of the impact of conflict on economic activity rely on formal sector data. Using high-frequency data from Afghanistan, this paper assesses how surges in conflict intensity affect not only the formal sector, but also in...

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Autores principales:	Galdo Virgilio, Acevedo Gladys Lopez, Rama Martin
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Sciendo 2021
Materias:	afghanistan conflict economic activity d74 e21 f35 i32 o17 Colonies and colonization. Emigration and immigration. International migration JV1-9480 City population. Including children in cities, immigration HT201-221
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d1e308a037ed4b31b4584828956db618
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d1e308a037ed4b31b4584828956db6182021-12-05T14:11:08ZConflict and the composition of economic activity in Afghanistan2520-178610.2478/izajodm-2021-0010https://doaj.org/article/d1e308a037ed4b31b4584828956db6182021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2021-0010https://doaj.org/toc/2520-1786Despite informality being the norm in conflict-affected countries, most estimates of the impact of conflict on economic activity rely on formal sector data. Using high-frequency data from Afghanistan, this paper assesses how surges in conflict intensity affect not only the formal sector, but also informal and illicit activities. Nighttime light provides a proxy for aggregate economic activity, mobile phone traffic by registered firms captures fluctuations in formal sector output, and the land surface devoted to poppy cultivation gives a measure of illicit production. The unit of observation is the district and the period of reference is 2012–2016. The results show that an increase in conflict-related casualties has a strong negative impact on formal economic activity in the following quarter and a positive effect on illicit activity after two quarters. The impact on aggregate economic activity is negative, but more muted.Galdo VirgilioAcevedo Gladys LopezRama MartinSciendoarticleafghanistanconflicteconomic activityd74e21f35i32o17Colonies and colonization. Emigration and immigration. International migrationJV1-9480City population. Including children in cities, immigrationHT201-221ENIZA Journal of Development and Migration, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 113-132 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	afghanistan conflict economic activity d74 e21 f35 i32 o17 Colonies and colonization. Emigration and immigration. International migration JV1-9480 City population. Including children in cities, immigration HT201-221
spellingShingle	afghanistan conflict economic activity d74 e21 f35 i32 o17 Colonies and colonization. Emigration and immigration. International migration JV1-9480 City population. Including children in cities, immigration HT201-221 Galdo Virgilio Acevedo Gladys Lopez Rama Martin Conflict and the composition of economic activity in Afghanistan
description	Despite informality being the norm in conflict-affected countries, most estimates of the impact of conflict on economic activity rely on formal sector data. Using high-frequency data from Afghanistan, this paper assesses how surges in conflict intensity affect not only the formal sector, but also informal and illicit activities. Nighttime light provides a proxy for aggregate economic activity, mobile phone traffic by registered firms captures fluctuations in formal sector output, and the land surface devoted to poppy cultivation gives a measure of illicit production. The unit of observation is the district and the period of reference is 2012–2016. The results show that an increase in conflict-related casualties has a strong negative impact on formal economic activity in the following quarter and a positive effect on illicit activity after two quarters. The impact on aggregate economic activity is negative, but more muted.
format	article
author	Galdo Virgilio Acevedo Gladys Lopez Rama Martin
author_facet	Galdo Virgilio Acevedo Gladys Lopez Rama Martin
author_sort	Galdo Virgilio
title	Conflict and the composition of economic activity in Afghanistan
title_short	Conflict and the composition of economic activity in Afghanistan
title_full	Conflict and the composition of economic activity in Afghanistan
title_fullStr	Conflict and the composition of economic activity in Afghanistan
title_full_unstemmed	Conflict and the composition of economic activity in Afghanistan
title_sort	conflict and the composition of economic activity in afghanistan
publisher	Sciendo
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d1e308a037ed4b31b4584828956db618
work_keys_str_mv	AT galdovirgilio conflictandthecompositionofeconomicactivityinafghanistan AT acevedogladyslopez conflictandthecompositionofeconomicactivityinafghanistan AT ramamartin conflictandthecompositionofeconomicactivityinafghanistan
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Conflict and the composition of economic activity in Afghanistan

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