Modelling adaptation strategies to reduce adverse impacts of climate change on maize cropping system in Northeast China

Abstract Maize (Zea mays L.) production in Northeast China is vulnerable to climate change. Thus, exploring future adaptation measures for maize is crucial to developing sustainable agriculture to ensure food security. The current study was undertaken to evaluate the impacts of climate change on mai...

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Autores principales:	Rong Jiang, Wentian He, Liang He, J. Y. Yang, B. Qian, Wei Zhou, Ping He
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d21ced7906874bb894c2569896a15d99
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d21ced7906874bb894c2569896a15d992021-12-02T14:01:22ZModelling adaptation strategies to reduce adverse impacts of climate change on maize cropping system in Northeast China10.1038/s41598-020-79988-32045-2322https://doaj.org/article/d21ced7906874bb894c2569896a15d992021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-79988-3https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Maize (Zea mays L.) production in Northeast China is vulnerable to climate change. Thus, exploring future adaptation measures for maize is crucial to developing sustainable agriculture to ensure food security. The current study was undertaken to evaluate the impacts of climate change on maize yield and partial factor productivity of nitrogen (PFPN) and explore potential adaptation strategies in Northeast China. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model was calibrated and validated using the measurements from nine maize experiments. DSSAT performed well in simulating maize yield, biomass and N uptake for both calibration and validation periods (normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) < 10%, −5% < normalized average relative error (nARE) < 5% and index of agreement (d) > 0.8). Compared to the baseline (1980–2010), the average maize yields and PFPN would decrease by 7.6–32.1% and 3.6–14.0 kg N kg−1 respectively under future climate scenarios (2041–2070 and 2071–2100) without adaptation. Optimizing N application rate and timing, establishing rotation system with legumes, adjusting planting dates and breeding long-season cultivars could be effective adaptation strategies to climate change. This study demonstrated that optimizing agronomic crop management practices would assist to make policy development on mitigating the negative impacts of future climate change on maize production.Rong JiangWentian HeLiang HeJ. Y. YangB. QianWei ZhouPing HeNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Rong Jiang Wentian He Liang He J. Y. Yang B. Qian Wei Zhou Ping He Modelling adaptation strategies to reduce adverse impacts of climate change on maize cropping system in Northeast China
description	Abstract Maize (Zea mays L.) production in Northeast China is vulnerable to climate change. Thus, exploring future adaptation measures for maize is crucial to developing sustainable agriculture to ensure food security. The current study was undertaken to evaluate the impacts of climate change on maize yield and partial factor productivity of nitrogen (PFPN) and explore potential adaptation strategies in Northeast China. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model was calibrated and validated using the measurements from nine maize experiments. DSSAT performed well in simulating maize yield, biomass and N uptake for both calibration and validation periods (normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) < 10%, −5% < normalized average relative error (nARE) < 5% and index of agreement (d) > 0.8). Compared to the baseline (1980–2010), the average maize yields and PFPN would decrease by 7.6–32.1% and 3.6–14.0 kg N kg−1 respectively under future climate scenarios (2041–2070 and 2071–2100) without adaptation. Optimizing N application rate and timing, establishing rotation system with legumes, adjusting planting dates and breeding long-season cultivars could be effective adaptation strategies to climate change. This study demonstrated that optimizing agronomic crop management practices would assist to make policy development on mitigating the negative impacts of future climate change on maize production.
format	article
author	Rong Jiang Wentian He Liang He J. Y. Yang B. Qian Wei Zhou Ping He
author_facet	Rong Jiang Wentian He Liang He J. Y. Yang B. Qian Wei Zhou Ping He
author_sort	Rong Jiang
title	Modelling adaptation strategies to reduce adverse impacts of climate change on maize cropping system in Northeast China
title_short	Modelling adaptation strategies to reduce adverse impacts of climate change on maize cropping system in Northeast China
title_full	Modelling adaptation strategies to reduce adverse impacts of climate change on maize cropping system in Northeast China
title_fullStr	Modelling adaptation strategies to reduce adverse impacts of climate change on maize cropping system in Northeast China
title_full_unstemmed	Modelling adaptation strategies to reduce adverse impacts of climate change on maize cropping system in Northeast China
title_sort	modelling adaptation strategies to reduce adverse impacts of climate change on maize cropping system in northeast china
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d21ced7906874bb894c2569896a15d99
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Modelling adaptation strategies to reduce adverse impacts of climate change on maize cropping system in Northeast China

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