Prediction of habitat suitability for Patrinia sibirica Juss. in the Southern Urals

Abstract The paper presents the results of predictions of the habitat persistence for rare relict of the Pleistocene floristic complex Patrinia sibirica (L.) Juss. in the Southern Urals under various forecasted climate change scenarios. Climate variables from CHELSA BIOCLIM, elevation data (GMTED201...

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Autores principales:	Nikolai Fedorov, Aliya Kutueva, Albert Muldashev, Oksana Mikhaylenko, Vasiliy Martynenko, Yulia Fedorova
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d276cd5c37134625b7a44a6b3cff9e59
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d276cd5c37134625b7a44a6b3cff9e592021-12-02T19:16:10ZPrediction of habitat suitability for Patrinia sibirica Juss. in the Southern Urals10.1038/s41598-021-99018-02045-2322https://doaj.org/article/d276cd5c37134625b7a44a6b3cff9e592021-10-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-99018-0https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The paper presents the results of predictions of the habitat persistence for rare relict of the Pleistocene floristic complex Patrinia sibirica (L.) Juss. in the Southern Urals under various forecasted climate change scenarios. Climate variables from CHELSA BIOCLIM, elevation data (GMTED2010) and coarse fragment content in the top level of soil were used as predictors for modeling in the MaxEnt software. The impact of climate change on P. sibirica habitats under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios calculated from an ensemble of four general circulation models has been analyzed. The modeling has shown that the changes in the habitat suitability depend on the altitude. Deterioration of the habitats could be attributed to a temperature increase in mountain forest locations, and to a precipitation of driest quarter increase in mountain forest-steppe locations. In both cases, this leads to the expansion of forest and shrub vegetation. Monitoring of the habitat persistence of P. sibirica and other relict species of the Pleistocene floristic complex can play a major role in predictions, as their massive decline would constitute that climatic changes exceed the ranges of their fluctuations in the Holocene.Nikolai FedorovAliya KutuevaAlbert MuldashevOksana MikhaylenkoVasiliy MartynenkoYulia FedorovaNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Nikolai Fedorov Aliya Kutueva Albert Muldashev Oksana Mikhaylenko Vasiliy Martynenko Yulia Fedorova Prediction of habitat suitability for Patrinia sibirica Juss. in the Southern Urals
description	Abstract The paper presents the results of predictions of the habitat persistence for rare relict of the Pleistocene floristic complex Patrinia sibirica (L.) Juss. in the Southern Urals under various forecasted climate change scenarios. Climate variables from CHELSA BIOCLIM, elevation data (GMTED2010) and coarse fragment content in the top level of soil were used as predictors for modeling in the MaxEnt software. The impact of climate change on P. sibirica habitats under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios calculated from an ensemble of four general circulation models has been analyzed. The modeling has shown that the changes in the habitat suitability depend on the altitude. Deterioration of the habitats could be attributed to a temperature increase in mountain forest locations, and to a precipitation of driest quarter increase in mountain forest-steppe locations. In both cases, this leads to the expansion of forest and shrub vegetation. Monitoring of the habitat persistence of P. sibirica and other relict species of the Pleistocene floristic complex can play a major role in predictions, as their massive decline would constitute that climatic changes exceed the ranges of their fluctuations in the Holocene.
format	article
author	Nikolai Fedorov Aliya Kutueva Albert Muldashev Oksana Mikhaylenko Vasiliy Martynenko Yulia Fedorova
author_facet	Nikolai Fedorov Aliya Kutueva Albert Muldashev Oksana Mikhaylenko Vasiliy Martynenko Yulia Fedorova
author_sort	Nikolai Fedorov
title	Prediction of habitat suitability for Patrinia sibirica Juss. in the Southern Urals
title_short	Prediction of habitat suitability for Patrinia sibirica Juss. in the Southern Urals
title_full	Prediction of habitat suitability for Patrinia sibirica Juss. in the Southern Urals
title_fullStr	Prediction of habitat suitability for Patrinia sibirica Juss. in the Southern Urals
title_full_unstemmed	Prediction of habitat suitability for Patrinia sibirica Juss. in the Southern Urals
title_sort	prediction of habitat suitability for patrinia sibirica juss. in the southern urals
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d276cd5c37134625b7a44a6b3cff9e59
work_keys_str_mv	AT nikolaifedorov predictionofhabitatsuitabilityforpatriniasibiricajussinthesouthernurals AT aliyakutueva predictionofhabitatsuitabilityforpatriniasibiricajussinthesouthernurals AT albertmuldashev predictionofhabitatsuitabilityforpatriniasibiricajussinthesouthernurals AT oksanamikhaylenko predictionofhabitatsuitabilityforpatriniasibiricajussinthesouthernurals AT vasiliymartynenko predictionofhabitatsuitabilityforpatriniasibiricajussinthesouthernurals AT yuliafedorova predictionofhabitatsuitabilityforpatriniasibiricajussinthesouthernurals
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Prediction of habitat suitability for Patrinia sibirica Juss. in the Southern Urals

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