Predicting the distribution of commercially important invertebrate stocks under future climate.

The future management of commercially exploited species is challenging because techniques used to predict the future distribution of stocks under climate change are currently inadequate. We projected the future distribution and abundance of two commercially harvested abalone species (blacklip abalon...

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Autores principales:	Bayden D Russell, Sean D Connell, Camille Mellin, Barry W Brook, Owen W Burnell, Damien A Fordham
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2012
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d29142d9d01a4a61a26032a765c2874f
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d29142d9d01a4a61a26032a765c2874f2021-11-18T08:05:30ZPredicting the distribution of commercially important invertebrate stocks under future climate.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0046554https://doaj.org/article/d29142d9d01a4a61a26032a765c2874f2012-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/23251326/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203The future management of commercially exploited species is challenging because techniques used to predict the future distribution of stocks under climate change are currently inadequate. We projected the future distribution and abundance of two commercially harvested abalone species (blacklip abalone, Haliotis rubra and greenlip abalone, H. laevigata) inhabiting coastal South Australia, using multiple species distribution models (SDM) and for decadal time slices through to 2100. Projections are based on two contrasting global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The SDMs identified August (winter) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) as the best descriptor of abundance and forecast that warming of winter temperatures under both scenarios may be beneficial to both species by allowing increased abundance and expansion into previously uninhabited coasts. This range expansion is unlikely to be realised, however, as projected warming of March SST is projected to exceed temperatures which cause up to 10-fold increases in juvenile mortality. By linking fine-resolution forecasts of sea surface temperature under different climate change scenarios to SDMs and physiological experiments, we provide a practical first approximation of the potential impact of climate-induced change on two species of marine invertebrates in the same fishery.Bayden D RussellSean D ConnellCamille MellinBarry W BrookOwen W BurnellDamien A FordhamPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 7, Iss 12, p e46554 (2012)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Bayden D Russell Sean D Connell Camille Mellin Barry W Brook Owen W Burnell Damien A Fordham Predicting the distribution of commercially important invertebrate stocks under future climate.
description	The future management of commercially exploited species is challenging because techniques used to predict the future distribution of stocks under climate change are currently inadequate. We projected the future distribution and abundance of two commercially harvested abalone species (blacklip abalone, Haliotis rubra and greenlip abalone, H. laevigata) inhabiting coastal South Australia, using multiple species distribution models (SDM) and for decadal time slices through to 2100. Projections are based on two contrasting global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The SDMs identified August (winter) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) as the best descriptor of abundance and forecast that warming of winter temperatures under both scenarios may be beneficial to both species by allowing increased abundance and expansion into previously uninhabited coasts. This range expansion is unlikely to be realised, however, as projected warming of March SST is projected to exceed temperatures which cause up to 10-fold increases in juvenile mortality. By linking fine-resolution forecasts of sea surface temperature under different climate change scenarios to SDMs and physiological experiments, we provide a practical first approximation of the potential impact of climate-induced change on two species of marine invertebrates in the same fishery.
format	article
author	Bayden D Russell Sean D Connell Camille Mellin Barry W Brook Owen W Burnell Damien A Fordham
author_facet	Bayden D Russell Sean D Connell Camille Mellin Barry W Brook Owen W Burnell Damien A Fordham
author_sort	Bayden D Russell
title	Predicting the distribution of commercially important invertebrate stocks under future climate.
title_short	Predicting the distribution of commercially important invertebrate stocks under future climate.
title_full	Predicting the distribution of commercially important invertebrate stocks under future climate.
title_fullStr	Predicting the distribution of commercially important invertebrate stocks under future climate.
title_full_unstemmed	Predicting the distribution of commercially important invertebrate stocks under future climate.
title_sort	predicting the distribution of commercially important invertebrate stocks under future climate.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2012
url	https://doaj.org/article/d29142d9d01a4a61a26032a765c2874f
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Predicting the distribution of commercially important invertebrate stocks under future climate.

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