Metastable states in plateaus and multi-wave epidemic dynamics of Covid-19 spreading in Italy

Abstract The control of Covid 19 epidemics by public health policy in Italy during the first and the second epidemic waves has been driven by using reproductive number Rt(t) to identify the supercritical (percolative), the subcritical (arrested), separated by the critical regime. Here we show that t...

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Autores principales:	Gaetano Campi, Maria Vittoria Mazziotti, Antonio Valletta, Giampietro Ravagnan, Augusto Marcelli, Andrea Perali, Antonio Bianconi
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d31adbac2c654183a47ec6037206f0d3
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d31adbac2c654183a47ec6037206f0d32021-12-02T16:04:26ZMetastable states in plateaus and multi-wave epidemic dynamics of Covid-19 spreading in Italy10.1038/s41598-021-91950-52045-2322https://doaj.org/article/d31adbac2c654183a47ec6037206f0d32021-06-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91950-5https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The control of Covid 19 epidemics by public health policy in Italy during the first and the second epidemic waves has been driven by using reproductive number Rt(t) to identify the supercritical (percolative), the subcritical (arrested), separated by the critical regime. Here we show that to quantify the Covid-19 spreading rate with containment measures there is a need of a 3D expanded parameter space phase diagram built by the combination of Rt(t) and doubling time Td(t). In this space we identify the Covid-19 dynamics in Italy and its administrative Regions. The supercritical regime is mathematically characterized by (i) the power law of Td vs. [Rt(t) − 1] and (ii) the exponential behaviour of Td vs. time, either in the first and in the second wave. The novel 3D phase diagram shows clearly metastable states appearing before and after the second wave critical regime. for loosening quarantine and tracing of actives cases. The metastable states are precursors of the abrupt onset of a next nascent wave supercritical regime. This dynamic description allows epidemics predictions needed by policymakers interested to point to the target "zero infections" with the elimination of SARS-CoV-2, using the Finding mobile Tracing policy joint with vaccination-campaign, in order to avoid the emergence of recurrent new variants of SARS-CoV-2 virus, accompined by recurrent long lockdowns, with large economical losses, and large number of fatalities.Gaetano CampiMaria Vittoria MazziottiAntonio VallettaGiampietro RavagnanAugusto MarcelliAndrea PeraliAntonio BianconiNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Gaetano Campi Maria Vittoria Mazziotti Antonio Valletta Giampietro Ravagnan Augusto Marcelli Andrea Perali Antonio Bianconi Metastable states in plateaus and multi-wave epidemic dynamics of Covid-19 spreading in Italy
description	Abstract The control of Covid 19 epidemics by public health policy in Italy during the first and the second epidemic waves has been driven by using reproductive number Rt(t) to identify the supercritical (percolative), the subcritical (arrested), separated by the critical regime. Here we show that to quantify the Covid-19 spreading rate with containment measures there is a need of a 3D expanded parameter space phase diagram built by the combination of Rt(t) and doubling time Td(t). In this space we identify the Covid-19 dynamics in Italy and its administrative Regions. The supercritical regime is mathematically characterized by (i) the power law of Td vs. [Rt(t) − 1] and (ii) the exponential behaviour of Td vs. time, either in the first and in the second wave. The novel 3D phase diagram shows clearly metastable states appearing before and after the second wave critical regime. for loosening quarantine and tracing of actives cases. The metastable states are precursors of the abrupt onset of a next nascent wave supercritical regime. This dynamic description allows epidemics predictions needed by policymakers interested to point to the target "zero infections" with the elimination of SARS-CoV-2, using the Finding mobile Tracing policy joint with vaccination-campaign, in order to avoid the emergence of recurrent new variants of SARS-CoV-2 virus, accompined by recurrent long lockdowns, with large economical losses, and large number of fatalities.
format	article
author	Gaetano Campi Maria Vittoria Mazziotti Antonio Valletta Giampietro Ravagnan Augusto Marcelli Andrea Perali Antonio Bianconi
author_facet	Gaetano Campi Maria Vittoria Mazziotti Antonio Valletta Giampietro Ravagnan Augusto Marcelli Andrea Perali Antonio Bianconi
author_sort	Gaetano Campi
title	Metastable states in plateaus and multi-wave epidemic dynamics of Covid-19 spreading in Italy
title_short	Metastable states in plateaus and multi-wave epidemic dynamics of Covid-19 spreading in Italy
title_full	Metastable states in plateaus and multi-wave epidemic dynamics of Covid-19 spreading in Italy
title_fullStr	Metastable states in plateaus and multi-wave epidemic dynamics of Covid-19 spreading in Italy
title_full_unstemmed	Metastable states in plateaus and multi-wave epidemic dynamics of Covid-19 spreading in Italy
title_sort	metastable states in plateaus and multi-wave epidemic dynamics of covid-19 spreading in italy
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d31adbac2c654183a47ec6037206f0d3
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Metastable states in plateaus and multi-wave epidemic dynamics of Covid-19 spreading in Italy

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