Path to net zero is critical to climate outcome

Abstract Net zero greenhouse gas targets have become a central element for climate action. However, most company and government pledges focus on the year that net zero is reached, with limited awareness of how critical the emissions pathway is in determining the climate outcome in both the near- and...

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Autores principales:	Tianyi Sun, Ilissa B. Ocko, Elizabeth Sturcken, Steven P. Hamburg
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d3518d21cff54bbc8fe210be0d0f38ed
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d3518d21cff54bbc8fe210be0d0f38ed2021-11-14T12:21:24ZPath to net zero is critical to climate outcome10.1038/s41598-021-01639-y2045-2322https://doaj.org/article/d3518d21cff54bbc8fe210be0d0f38ed2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01639-yhttps://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Net zero greenhouse gas targets have become a central element for climate action. However, most company and government pledges focus on the year that net zero is reached, with limited awareness of how critical the emissions pathway is in determining the climate outcome in both the near- and long-term. Here we show that different pathways of carbon dioxide and methane—the most prominent long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gases, respectively—can lead to nearly 0.4 °C of warming difference in midcentury and potential overshoot of the 2 °C target, even if they technically reach global net zero greenhouse gas emissions in 2050. While all paths achieve the Paris Agreement temperature goals in the long-term, there is still a 0.2 °C difference by end-of-century. We find that early action to reduce both emissions of carbon dioxide and methane simultaneously leads to the best climate outcomes over all timescales. We therefore recommend that companies and countries supplement net zero targets with a two-basket set of interim milestones to ensure that early action is taken for both carbon dioxide and methane. A one-basket approach, such as the standard format for Nationally Determined Contributions, is not sufficient because it can lead to a delay in methane mitigation.Tianyi SunIlissa B. OckoElizabeth SturckenSteven P. HamburgNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Tianyi Sun Ilissa B. Ocko Elizabeth Sturcken Steven P. Hamburg Path to net zero is critical to climate outcome
description	Abstract Net zero greenhouse gas targets have become a central element for climate action. However, most company and government pledges focus on the year that net zero is reached, with limited awareness of how critical the emissions pathway is in determining the climate outcome in both the near- and long-term. Here we show that different pathways of carbon dioxide and methane—the most prominent long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gases, respectively—can lead to nearly 0.4 °C of warming difference in midcentury and potential overshoot of the 2 °C target, even if they technically reach global net zero greenhouse gas emissions in 2050. While all paths achieve the Paris Agreement temperature goals in the long-term, there is still a 0.2 °C difference by end-of-century. We find that early action to reduce both emissions of carbon dioxide and methane simultaneously leads to the best climate outcomes over all timescales. We therefore recommend that companies and countries supplement net zero targets with a two-basket set of interim milestones to ensure that early action is taken for both carbon dioxide and methane. A one-basket approach, such as the standard format for Nationally Determined Contributions, is not sufficient because it can lead to a delay in methane mitigation.
format	article
author	Tianyi Sun Ilissa B. Ocko Elizabeth Sturcken Steven P. Hamburg
author_facet	Tianyi Sun Ilissa B. Ocko Elizabeth Sturcken Steven P. Hamburg
author_sort	Tianyi Sun
title	Path to net zero is critical to climate outcome
title_short	Path to net zero is critical to climate outcome
title_full	Path to net zero is critical to climate outcome
title_fullStr	Path to net zero is critical to climate outcome
title_full_unstemmed	Path to net zero is critical to climate outcome
title_sort	path to net zero is critical to climate outcome
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d3518d21cff54bbc8fe210be0d0f38ed
work_keys_str_mv	AT tianyisun pathtonetzeroiscriticaltoclimateoutcome AT ilissabocko pathtonetzeroiscriticaltoclimateoutcome AT elizabethsturcken pathtonetzeroiscriticaltoclimateoutcome AT stevenphamburg pathtonetzeroiscriticaltoclimateoutcome
_version_	1718429257649094656

Path to net zero is critical to climate outcome

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