Decreased wheat production in the USA from climate change driven by yield losses rather than crop abandonment.

An increase in global average surface temperature over the 21st century will affect food production. There is still uncertainty if the source of the production losses caused by climate change could be driven either by lower yield or reduced area harvested. We use county-level production data on wint...

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Autores principales:	Oladipo S Obembe, Nathan P Hendricks, Jesse Tack
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d358f7da2a2645389af3994b6c235c0e
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:d358f7da2a2645389af3994b6c235c0e
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d358f7da2a2645389af3994b6c235c0e2021-11-25T06:23:30ZDecreased wheat production in the USA from climate change driven by yield losses rather than crop abandonment.1932-620310.1371/journal.pone.0252067https://doaj.org/article/d358f7da2a2645389af3994b6c235c0e2021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0252067https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203An increase in global average surface temperature over the 21st century will affect food production. There is still uncertainty if the source of the production losses caused by climate change could be driven either by lower yield or reduced area harvested. We use county-level production data on winter wheat coupled with fine-scale weather outcomes between 1981-2007 to examine the impact of climate change on winter wheat production in Kansas. We decompose the total impact of weather variables through both the yield and harvested acreage channels. We find that an insignificant portion-both in terms of magnitude and statistical significance-of the production losses are due to reduced harvested acres (i.e., crop abandonment). The proportion harvested only account for 14.88% and 21.71% of the total damages under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 and neither effect is statistically significant. An implication of this result implies that studies that only examine climate impacts on harvested yields are not significantly underestimating the climate change impacts on production.Oladipo S ObembeNathan P HendricksJesse TackPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleMedicineRScienceQENPLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 6, p e0252067 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Oladipo S Obembe Nathan P Hendricks Jesse Tack Decreased wheat production in the USA from climate change driven by yield losses rather than crop abandonment.
description	An increase in global average surface temperature over the 21st century will affect food production. There is still uncertainty if the source of the production losses caused by climate change could be driven either by lower yield or reduced area harvested. We use county-level production data on winter wheat coupled with fine-scale weather outcomes between 1981-2007 to examine the impact of climate change on winter wheat production in Kansas. We decompose the total impact of weather variables through both the yield and harvested acreage channels. We find that an insignificant portion-both in terms of magnitude and statistical significance-of the production losses are due to reduced harvested acres (i.e., crop abandonment). The proportion harvested only account for 14.88% and 21.71% of the total damages under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 and neither effect is statistically significant. An implication of this result implies that studies that only examine climate impacts on harvested yields are not significantly underestimating the climate change impacts on production.
format	article
author	Oladipo S Obembe Nathan P Hendricks Jesse Tack
author_facet	Oladipo S Obembe Nathan P Hendricks Jesse Tack
author_sort	Oladipo S Obembe
title	Decreased wheat production in the USA from climate change driven by yield losses rather than crop abandonment.
title_short	Decreased wheat production in the USA from climate change driven by yield losses rather than crop abandonment.
title_full	Decreased wheat production in the USA from climate change driven by yield losses rather than crop abandonment.
title_fullStr	Decreased wheat production in the USA from climate change driven by yield losses rather than crop abandonment.
title_full_unstemmed	Decreased wheat production in the USA from climate change driven by yield losses rather than crop abandonment.
title_sort	decreased wheat production in the usa from climate change driven by yield losses rather than crop abandonment.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d358f7da2a2645389af3994b6c235c0e
work_keys_str_mv	AT oladiposobembe decreasedwheatproductionintheusafromclimatechangedrivenbyyieldlossesratherthancropabandonment AT nathanphendricks decreasedwheatproductionintheusafromclimatechangedrivenbyyieldlossesratherthancropabandonment AT jessetack decreasedwheatproductionintheusafromclimatechangedrivenbyyieldlossesratherthancropabandonment
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Decreased wheat production in the USA from climate change driven by yield losses rather than crop abandonment.

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