Use of expansion factors to estimate the burden of dengue in Southeast Asia: a systematic analysis.

<h4>Background</h4>Dengue virus infection is the most common arthropod-borne disease of humans and its geographical range and infection rates are increasing. Health policy decisions require information about the disease burden, but surveillance systems usually underreport the total numbe...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Eduardo A Undurraga, Yara A Halasa, Donald S Shepard
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013
Materias:	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d39a775e90bb46e8927ad5c185160bb4
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:d39a775e90bb46e8927ad5c185160bb4
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d39a775e90bb46e8927ad5c185160bb42021-11-18T09:15:21ZUse of expansion factors to estimate the burden of dengue in Southeast Asia: a systematic analysis.1935-27271935-273510.1371/journal.pntd.0002056https://doaj.org/article/d39a775e90bb46e8927ad5c185160bb42013-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/23437407/?tool=EBIhttps://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735<h4>Background</h4>Dengue virus infection is the most common arthropod-borne disease of humans and its geographical range and infection rates are increasing. Health policy decisions require information about the disease burden, but surveillance systems usually underreport the total number of cases. These may be estimated by multiplying reported cases by an expansion factor (EF).<h4>Methods and findings</h4>As a key step to estimate the economic and disease burden of dengue in Southeast Asia (SEA), we projected dengue cases from 2001 through 2010 using EFs. We conducted a systematic literature review (1995-2011) and identified 11 published articles reporting original, empirically derived EFs or the necessary data, and 11 additional relevant studies. To estimate EFs for total cases in countries where no empirical studies were available, we extrapolated data based on the statistically significant inverse relationship between an index of a country's health system quality and its observed reporting rate. We compiled an average 386,000 dengue episodes reported annually to surveillance systems in the region, and projected about 2.92 million dengue episodes. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, simultaneously varying the most important parameters in 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations, and derived 95% certainty level of 2.73-3.38 million dengue episodes. We estimated an overall EF in SEA of 7.6 (95% certainty level: 7.0-8.8) dengue cases for every case reported, with an EF range of 3.8 for Malaysia to 19.0 in East Timor.<h4>Conclusion</h4>Studies that make no adjustment for underreporting would seriously understate the burden and cost of dengue in SEA and elsewhere. As the sites of the empirical studies we identified were not randomly chosen, the exact extent of underreporting remains uncertain. Nevertheless, the results reported here, based on a systematic analysis of the available literature, show general consistency and provide a reasonable empirical basis to adjust for underreporting.Eduardo A UndurragaYara A HalasaDonald S ShepardPublic Library of Science (PLoS)articleArctic medicine. Tropical medicineRC955-962Public aspects of medicineRA1-1270ENPLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 7, Iss 2, p e2056 (2013)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270
spellingShingle	Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Eduardo A Undurraga Yara A Halasa Donald S Shepard Use of expansion factors to estimate the burden of dengue in Southeast Asia: a systematic analysis.
description	<h4>Background</h4>Dengue virus infection is the most common arthropod-borne disease of humans and its geographical range and infection rates are increasing. Health policy decisions require information about the disease burden, but surveillance systems usually underreport the total number of cases. These may be estimated by multiplying reported cases by an expansion factor (EF).<h4>Methods and findings</h4>As a key step to estimate the economic and disease burden of dengue in Southeast Asia (SEA), we projected dengue cases from 2001 through 2010 using EFs. We conducted a systematic literature review (1995-2011) and identified 11 published articles reporting original, empirically derived EFs or the necessary data, and 11 additional relevant studies. To estimate EFs for total cases in countries where no empirical studies were available, we extrapolated data based on the statistically significant inverse relationship between an index of a country's health system quality and its observed reporting rate. We compiled an average 386,000 dengue episodes reported annually to surveillance systems in the region, and projected about 2.92 million dengue episodes. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, simultaneously varying the most important parameters in 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations, and derived 95% certainty level of 2.73-3.38 million dengue episodes. We estimated an overall EF in SEA of 7.6 (95% certainty level: 7.0-8.8) dengue cases for every case reported, with an EF range of 3.8 for Malaysia to 19.0 in East Timor.<h4>Conclusion</h4>Studies that make no adjustment for underreporting would seriously understate the burden and cost of dengue in SEA and elsewhere. As the sites of the empirical studies we identified were not randomly chosen, the exact extent of underreporting remains uncertain. Nevertheless, the results reported here, based on a systematic analysis of the available literature, show general consistency and provide a reasonable empirical basis to adjust for underreporting.
format	article
author	Eduardo A Undurraga Yara A Halasa Donald S Shepard
author_facet	Eduardo A Undurraga Yara A Halasa Donald S Shepard
author_sort	Eduardo A Undurraga
title	Use of expansion factors to estimate the burden of dengue in Southeast Asia: a systematic analysis.
title_short	Use of expansion factors to estimate the burden of dengue in Southeast Asia: a systematic analysis.
title_full	Use of expansion factors to estimate the burden of dengue in Southeast Asia: a systematic analysis.
title_fullStr	Use of expansion factors to estimate the burden of dengue in Southeast Asia: a systematic analysis.
title_full_unstemmed	Use of expansion factors to estimate the burden of dengue in Southeast Asia: a systematic analysis.
title_sort	use of expansion factors to estimate the burden of dengue in southeast asia: a systematic analysis.
publisher	Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publishDate	2013
url	https://doaj.org/article/d39a775e90bb46e8927ad5c185160bb4
work_keys_str_mv	AT eduardoaundurraga useofexpansionfactorstoestimatetheburdenofdengueinsoutheastasiaasystematicanalysis AT yaraahalasa useofexpansionfactorstoestimatetheburdenofdengueinsoutheastasiaasystematicanalysis AT donaldsshepard useofexpansionfactorstoestimatetheburdenofdengueinsoutheastasiaasystematicanalysis
_version_	1718420931114696704

Use of expansion factors to estimate the burden of dengue in Southeast Asia: a systematic analysis.

Ejemplares similares