Climate change and its implications for rainfed agriculture in Ethiopia

This study aims to investigate the spatio-temporal variability and trends in climate and its implications for rainfed agriculture in the Rib watershed, north-western highland Ethiopia from 1986 to 2050. The daily rainfall and temperature records for the period 1986–2017 were used to detect the varia...

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Autores principales:	Desalew Meseret Moges, H. Gangadhara Bhat
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	climate projections mann–kendall test rainfall and temperature rain-fed agriculture Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d3d0b9420f614451b2f64f963eb80ad0
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id	oai:doaj.org-article:d3d0b9420f614451b2f64f963eb80ad0
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d3d0b9420f614451b2f64f963eb80ad02021-11-05T18:52:31ZClimate change and its implications for rainfed agriculture in Ethiopia2040-22442408-935410.2166/wcc.2020.058https://doaj.org/article/d3d0b9420f614451b2f64f963eb80ad02021-06-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/4/1229https://doaj.org/toc/2040-2244https://doaj.org/toc/2408-9354This study aims to investigate the spatio-temporal variability and trends in climate and its implications for rainfed agriculture in the Rib watershed, north-western highland Ethiopia from 1986 to 2050. The daily rainfall and temperature records for the period 1986–2017 were used to detect the variability and trends of the current climate using the coefficient of variation, precipitation concentration index, Mann–Kendall test, and Sen's slope estimator. On the other hand, future climate changes (2018–2050) were analyzed based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) model outputs under under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The results showed high inter-seasonal and inter-annual variability of rainfall and temperature in the studied watershed over the last four decades. The annual and Kiremt (June–September) rainfall showed a generally increasing trend, while the Belg (March–May) rainfall exhibited a decreasing trend between 1986 and 2017. Conversely, the minimum, maximum and mean temperature demonstrated increasing trends over the study period although most of the detected trends were statistically insignificant at 5 and 10% level of significance. Future climate analysis results showed an increase in future temperature and annual and Kiremt rainfall while Belg rainfall declined. HIGHLIGHTS Both the current and future rainfall and temperature changes and variability were analysed.; Five CMIP5 model outputs and two emission scenarios were considered for analysis of future climate.; Mapping the spatial distribution of rainfall and PCI is essential for water use planning and policy making.; Evaluation of seasonal climate variability and change is vital for rain-fed agriculture, particularly in developing countries like Ethiopia.; Mann-Kendall test and coefficient of variation were found to be important techniques for analysis of climate variability and trends.;Desalew Meseret MogesH. Gangadhara BhatIWA Publishingarticleclimate projectionsmann–kendall testrainfall and temperaturerain-fed agricultureEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENJournal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 12, Iss 4, Pp 1229-1244 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	climate projections mann–kendall test rainfall and temperature rain-fed agriculture Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	climate projections mann–kendall test rainfall and temperature rain-fed agriculture Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Desalew Meseret Moges H. Gangadhara Bhat Climate change and its implications for rainfed agriculture in Ethiopia
description	This study aims to investigate the spatio-temporal variability and trends in climate and its implications for rainfed agriculture in the Rib watershed, north-western highland Ethiopia from 1986 to 2050. The daily rainfall and temperature records for the period 1986–2017 were used to detect the variability and trends of the current climate using the coefficient of variation, precipitation concentration index, Mann–Kendall test, and Sen's slope estimator. On the other hand, future climate changes (2018–2050) were analyzed based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) model outputs under under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The results showed high inter-seasonal and inter-annual variability of rainfall and temperature in the studied watershed over the last four decades. The annual and Kiremt (June–September) rainfall showed a generally increasing trend, while the Belg (March–May) rainfall exhibited a decreasing trend between 1986 and 2017. Conversely, the minimum, maximum and mean temperature demonstrated increasing trends over the study period although most of the detected trends were statistically insignificant at 5 and 10% level of significance. Future climate analysis results showed an increase in future temperature and annual and Kiremt rainfall while Belg rainfall declined. HIGHLIGHTS Both the current and future rainfall and temperature changes and variability were analysed.; Five CMIP5 model outputs and two emission scenarios were considered for analysis of future climate.; Mapping the spatial distribution of rainfall and PCI is essential for water use planning and policy making.; Evaluation of seasonal climate variability and change is vital for rain-fed agriculture, particularly in developing countries like Ethiopia.; Mann-Kendall test and coefficient of variation were found to be important techniques for analysis of climate variability and trends.;
format	article
author	Desalew Meseret Moges H. Gangadhara Bhat
author_facet	Desalew Meseret Moges H. Gangadhara Bhat
author_sort	Desalew Meseret Moges
title	Climate change and its implications for rainfed agriculture in Ethiopia
title_short	Climate change and its implications for rainfed agriculture in Ethiopia
title_full	Climate change and its implications for rainfed agriculture in Ethiopia
title_fullStr	Climate change and its implications for rainfed agriculture in Ethiopia
title_full_unstemmed	Climate change and its implications for rainfed agriculture in Ethiopia
title_sort	climate change and its implications for rainfed agriculture in ethiopia
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d3d0b9420f614451b2f64f963eb80ad0
work_keys_str_mv	AT desalewmeseretmoges climatechangeanditsimplicationsforrainfedagricultureinethiopia AT hgangadharabhat climatechangeanditsimplicationsforrainfedagricultureinethiopia
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Climate change and its implications for rainfed agriculture in Ethiopia

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