Trend analysis and forecast of daily reported incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hubei, China by Prophet model

Abstract Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is common among children below 5 years. HFMD has a high incidence in Hubei Province, China. In this study, the Prophet model was used to forecast the incidence of HFMD in comparison with the autoregressive-integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and HFM...

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Autores principales:	Cong Xie, Haoyu Wen, Wenwen Yang, Jing Cai, Peng Zhang, Ran Wu, Mingyan Li, Shuqiong Huang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d41f97fd95b040a3a2cad98caa024ba7
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d41f97fd95b040a3a2cad98caa024ba72021-12-02T14:12:48ZTrend analysis and forecast of daily reported incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hubei, China by Prophet model10.1038/s41598-021-81100-22045-2322https://doaj.org/article/d41f97fd95b040a3a2cad98caa024ba72021-01-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-81100-2https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is common among children below 5 years. HFMD has a high incidence in Hubei Province, China. In this study, the Prophet model was used to forecast the incidence of HFMD in comparison with the autoregressive-integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and HFMD incidence was decomposed into trends, yearly, weekly seasonality and holiday effect. The Prophet model fitted better than the ARIMA model in daily reported incidence of HFMD. The HFMD incidence forecast by the Prophet model showed that two peaks occurred in 2019, with the higher peak in May and the lower peak in December. Periodically changing patterns of HFMD incidence were observed after decomposing the time-series into its major components. In specific, multi-year variability of HFMD incidence was found, and the slow-down increasing point of HFMD incidence was identified. Relatively high HFMD incidences appeared in May and on Mondays. The effect of Spring Festival on HFMD incidence was much stronger than that of other holidays. This study showed the potential of the Prophet model to detect seasonality in HFMD incidence. Our next goal is to incorporate climate variables into the Prophet model to produce an accurate forecast of HFMD incidence.Cong XieHaoyu WenWenwen YangJing CaiPeng ZhangRan WuMingyan LiShuqiong HuangNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Cong Xie Haoyu Wen Wenwen Yang Jing Cai Peng Zhang Ran Wu Mingyan Li Shuqiong Huang Trend analysis and forecast of daily reported incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hubei, China by Prophet model
description	Abstract Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is common among children below 5 years. HFMD has a high incidence in Hubei Province, China. In this study, the Prophet model was used to forecast the incidence of HFMD in comparison with the autoregressive-integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and HFMD incidence was decomposed into trends, yearly, weekly seasonality and holiday effect. The Prophet model fitted better than the ARIMA model in daily reported incidence of HFMD. The HFMD incidence forecast by the Prophet model showed that two peaks occurred in 2019, with the higher peak in May and the lower peak in December. Periodically changing patterns of HFMD incidence were observed after decomposing the time-series into its major components. In specific, multi-year variability of HFMD incidence was found, and the slow-down increasing point of HFMD incidence was identified. Relatively high HFMD incidences appeared in May and on Mondays. The effect of Spring Festival on HFMD incidence was much stronger than that of other holidays. This study showed the potential of the Prophet model to detect seasonality in HFMD incidence. Our next goal is to incorporate climate variables into the Prophet model to produce an accurate forecast of HFMD incidence.
format	article
author	Cong Xie Haoyu Wen Wenwen Yang Jing Cai Peng Zhang Ran Wu Mingyan Li Shuqiong Huang
author_facet	Cong Xie Haoyu Wen Wenwen Yang Jing Cai Peng Zhang Ran Wu Mingyan Li Shuqiong Huang
author_sort	Cong Xie
title	Trend analysis and forecast of daily reported incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hubei, China by Prophet model
title_short	Trend analysis and forecast of daily reported incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hubei, China by Prophet model
title_full	Trend analysis and forecast of daily reported incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hubei, China by Prophet model
title_fullStr	Trend analysis and forecast of daily reported incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hubei, China by Prophet model
title_full_unstemmed	Trend analysis and forecast of daily reported incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hubei, China by Prophet model
title_sort	trend analysis and forecast of daily reported incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in hubei, china by prophet model
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d41f97fd95b040a3a2cad98caa024ba7
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Trend analysis and forecast of daily reported incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hubei, China by Prophet model

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