Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise

Abstract Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, ev...

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Autores principales:	Sean Vitousek, Patrick L. Barnard, Charles H. Fletcher, Neil Frazer, Li Erikson, Curt D. Storlazzi
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2017
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d4210152a000478d8472fcf1c08b3442
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d4210152a000478d8472fcf1c08b34422021-12-02T12:30:53ZDoubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise10.1038/s41598-017-01362-72045-2322https://doaj.org/article/d4210152a000478d8472fcf1c08b34422017-05-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-01362-7https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.Sean VitousekPatrick L. BarnardCharles H. FletcherNeil FrazerLi EriksonCurt D. StorlazziNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2017)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Sean Vitousek Patrick L. Barnard Charles H. Fletcher Neil Frazer Li Erikson Curt D. Storlazzi Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise
description	Abstract Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.
format	article
author	Sean Vitousek Patrick L. Barnard Charles H. Fletcher Neil Frazer Li Erikson Curt D. Storlazzi
author_facet	Sean Vitousek Patrick L. Barnard Charles H. Fletcher Neil Frazer Li Erikson Curt D. Storlazzi
author_sort	Sean Vitousek
title	Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise
title_short	Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise
title_full	Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise
title_fullStr	Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise
title_full_unstemmed	Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise
title_sort	doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2017
url	https://doaj.org/article/d4210152a000478d8472fcf1c08b3442
work_keys_str_mv	AT seanvitousek doublingofcoastalfloodingfrequencywithindecadesduetosealevelrise AT patricklbarnard doublingofcoastalfloodingfrequencywithindecadesduetosealevelrise AT charleshfletcher doublingofcoastalfloodingfrequencywithindecadesduetosealevelrise AT neilfrazer doublingofcoastalfloodingfrequencywithindecadesduetosealevelrise AT lierikson doublingofcoastalfloodingfrequencywithindecadesduetosealevelrise AT curtdstorlazzi doublingofcoastalfloodingfrequencywithindecadesduetosealevelrise
_version_	1718394308107698176

Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise

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