Predictive analysis of the impact of the time of day on road accidents in Poland

The steady increase in the number of road users and their growing mobility mean that the issue of road safety is still a topical one. Analyses of factors influencing the number of road traffic accidents contribute to the improvement of road safety. Because changes in traffic volume follow a daily rh...

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Autores principales:	Borucka Anna, Kozłowski Edward, Oleszczuk Piotr, Świderski Andrzej
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	De Gruyter 2020
Materias:	road traffic accidents road safety management seasonality armax model holt-winters model Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) TA1-2040
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d4cb2e5f24d94bf784cf6692fc4f4c3c
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d4cb2e5f24d94bf784cf6692fc4f4c3c2021-12-05T14:10:46ZPredictive analysis of the impact of the time of day on road accidents in Poland2391-543910.1515/eng-2021-0017https://doaj.org/article/d4cb2e5f24d94bf784cf6692fc4f4c3c2020-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1515/eng-2021-0017https://doaj.org/toc/2391-5439The steady increase in the number of road users and their growing mobility mean that the issue of road safety is still a topical one. Analyses of factors influencing the number of road traffic accidents contribute to the improvement of road safety. Because changes in traffic volume follow a daily rhythm, hour of the day is an important factor affecting the number of crashes. The present article identifies selected mathematical models which can be used to describe the number of road traffic accidents as a function of the time of their occurrence during the day. The study of the seasonality of the number of accidents in particular hours was assessed. The distributions of the number of accidents in each hour were compared using the Kruskal-Wallis and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. Multidimensional scaling was used to present the found similarities and differences. Similar hours were grouped into clusters, which were used in further analysis to construct the ARMAXmodel and the Holt-Winters model. Finally, the predictive capabilities of each model were assessed.Borucka AnnaKozłowski EdwardOleszczuk PiotrŚwiderski AndrzejDe Gruyterarticleroad traffic accidentsroad safety managementseasonalityarmax modelholt-winters modelEngineering (General). Civil engineering (General)TA1-2040ENOpen Engineering, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 142-150 (2020)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	road traffic accidents road safety management seasonality armax model holt-winters model Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) TA1-2040
spellingShingle	road traffic accidents road safety management seasonality armax model holt-winters model Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) TA1-2040 Borucka Anna Kozłowski Edward Oleszczuk Piotr Świderski Andrzej Predictive analysis of the impact of the time of day on road accidents in Poland
description	The steady increase in the number of road users and their growing mobility mean that the issue of road safety is still a topical one. Analyses of factors influencing the number of road traffic accidents contribute to the improvement of road safety. Because changes in traffic volume follow a daily rhythm, hour of the day is an important factor affecting the number of crashes. The present article identifies selected mathematical models which can be used to describe the number of road traffic accidents as a function of the time of their occurrence during the day. The study of the seasonality of the number of accidents in particular hours was assessed. The distributions of the number of accidents in each hour were compared using the Kruskal-Wallis and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. Multidimensional scaling was used to present the found similarities and differences. Similar hours were grouped into clusters, which were used in further analysis to construct the ARMAXmodel and the Holt-Winters model. Finally, the predictive capabilities of each model were assessed.
format	article
author	Borucka Anna Kozłowski Edward Oleszczuk Piotr Świderski Andrzej
author_facet	Borucka Anna Kozłowski Edward Oleszczuk Piotr Świderski Andrzej
author_sort	Borucka Anna
title	Predictive analysis of the impact of the time of day on road accidents in Poland
title_short	Predictive analysis of the impact of the time of day on road accidents in Poland
title_full	Predictive analysis of the impact of the time of day on road accidents in Poland
title_fullStr	Predictive analysis of the impact of the time of day on road accidents in Poland
title_full_unstemmed	Predictive analysis of the impact of the time of day on road accidents in Poland
title_sort	predictive analysis of the impact of the time of day on road accidents in poland
publisher	De Gruyter
publishDate	2020
url	https://doaj.org/article/d4cb2e5f24d94bf784cf6692fc4f4c3c
work_keys_str_mv	AT boruckaanna predictiveanalysisoftheimpactofthetimeofdayonroadaccidentsinpoland AT kozłowskiedward predictiveanalysisoftheimpactofthetimeofdayonroadaccidentsinpoland AT oleszczukpiotr predictiveanalysisoftheimpactofthetimeofdayonroadaccidentsinpoland AT swiderskiandrzej predictiveanalysisoftheimpactofthetimeofdayonroadaccidentsinpoland
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Predictive analysis of the impact of the time of day on road accidents in Poland

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