Recalculation of error growth models' parameters for the ECMWF forecast system

<p>This article provides a new estimate of error growth models' parameters approximating predictability curves and their differentials, calculated from data of the ECMWF forecast system over the 1986 to 2011 period. Estimates of the largest Lyapunov exponent are also provided, along with...

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Autores principales:	H. Bednář, A. Raidl, J. Mikšovský
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Copernicus Publications 2021
Materias:	Geology QE1-996.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d53a62f9ff5547ae8c8c14e25e8abea4
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d53a62f9ff5547ae8c8c14e25e8abea42021-12-01T07:56:13ZRecalculation of error growth models' parameters for the ECMWF forecast system10.5194/gmd-14-7377-20211991-959X1991-9603https://doaj.org/article/d53a62f9ff5547ae8c8c14e25e8abea42021-12-01T00:00:00Zhttps://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/14/7377/2021/gmd-14-7377-2021.pdfhttps://doaj.org/toc/1991-959Xhttps://doaj.org/toc/1991-9603<p>This article provides a new estimate of error growth models' parameters approximating predictability curves and their differentials, calculated from data of the ECMWF forecast system over the 1986 to 2011 period. Estimates of the largest Lyapunov exponent are also provided, along with model error and the limit value of the predictability curve. The proposed correction is based on the ability of the Lorenz (2005) system to simulate the predictability curve of the ECMWF forecasting system and on comparing the parameters estimated for both these systems, as well as on comparison with the largest Lyapunov exponent (<span class="inline-formula"><i>λ</i>=0.35</span> d<span class="inline-formula"><sup>−1</sup></span>) and limit value of the predictability curve (<span class="inline-formula"><i>E</i><sub>∞</sub>=8.2</span>) of the Lorenz system. Parameters are calculated from the quadratic model with and without model error, as well as by the logarithmic, general, and hyperbolic tangent models. The average value of the largest Lyapunov exponent is estimated to be in the <span class="inline-formula"><i><</i></span> 0.32; 0.41 <span class="inline-formula"><i>></i></span> d<span class="inline-formula"><sup>−1</sup></span> range for the ECMWF forecasting system; limit values of the predictability curves are estimated with lower theoretically derived values, and a new approach for the calculation of model error based on comparison of models is presented.</p>H. BednářA. RaidlJ. MikšovskýCopernicus PublicationsarticleGeologyQE1-996.5ENGeoscientific Model Development, Vol 14, Pp 7377-7389 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Geology QE1-996.5
spellingShingle	Geology QE1-996.5 H. Bednář A. Raidl J. Mikšovský Recalculation of error growth models' parameters for the ECMWF forecast system
description	<p>This article provides a new estimate of error growth models' parameters approximating predictability curves and their differentials, calculated from data of the ECMWF forecast system over the 1986 to 2011 period. Estimates of the largest Lyapunov exponent are also provided, along with model error and the limit value of the predictability curve. The proposed correction is based on the ability of the Lorenz (2005) system to simulate the predictability curve of the ECMWF forecasting system and on comparing the parameters estimated for both these systems, as well as on comparison with the largest Lyapunov exponent (<span class="inline-formula"><i>λ</i>=0.35</span> d<span class="inline-formula"><sup>−1</sup></span>) and limit value of the predictability curve (<span class="inline-formula"><i>E</i><sub>∞</sub>=8.2</span>) of the Lorenz system. Parameters are calculated from the quadratic model with and without model error, as well as by the logarithmic, general, and hyperbolic tangent models. The average value of the largest Lyapunov exponent is estimated to be in the <span class="inline-formula"><i><</i></span> 0.32; 0.41 <span class="inline-formula"><i>></i></span> d<span class="inline-formula"><sup>−1</sup></span> range for the ECMWF forecasting system; limit values of the predictability curves are estimated with lower theoretically derived values, and a new approach for the calculation of model error based on comparison of models is presented.</p>
format	article
author	H. Bednář A. Raidl J. Mikšovský
author_facet	H. Bednář A. Raidl J. Mikšovský
author_sort	H. Bednář
title	Recalculation of error growth models' parameters for the ECMWF forecast system
title_short	Recalculation of error growth models' parameters for the ECMWF forecast system
title_full	Recalculation of error growth models' parameters for the ECMWF forecast system
title_fullStr	Recalculation of error growth models' parameters for the ECMWF forecast system
title_full_unstemmed	Recalculation of error growth models' parameters for the ECMWF forecast system
title_sort	recalculation of error growth models' parameters for the ecmwf forecast system
publisher	Copernicus Publications
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d53a62f9ff5547ae8c8c14e25e8abea4
work_keys_str_mv	AT hbednar recalculationoferrorgrowthmodelsparametersfortheecmwfforecastsystem AT araidl recalculationoferrorgrowthmodelsparametersfortheecmwfforecastsystem AT jmiksovsky recalculationoferrorgrowthmodelsparametersfortheecmwfforecastsystem
_version_	1718405444606623744

Recalculation of error growth models' parameters for the ECMWF forecast system

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