Technical note: PMR – a proxy metric to assess hydrological model robustness in a changing climate

<p>The ability of hydrological models to perform in climatic conditions different from those encountered in calibration is crucial to ensure a reliable assessment of the impact of climate change on river regimes and water availability. However, most evaluation studies based on the differential...

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Autores principales:	P. Royer-Gaspard, V. Andréassian, G. Thirel
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Copernicus Publications 2021
Materias:	Technology T Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d5a3f2a4063540ec89971d1bb6ee2e8b
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d5a3f2a4063540ec89971d1bb6ee2e8b2021-11-08T09:52:25ZTechnical note: PMR – a proxy metric to assess hydrological model robustness in a changing climate10.5194/hess-25-5703-20211027-56061607-7938https://doaj.org/article/d5a3f2a4063540ec89971d1bb6ee2e8b2021-11-01T00:00:00Zhttps://hess.copernicus.org/articles/25/5703/2021/hess-25-5703-2021.pdfhttps://doaj.org/toc/1027-5606https://doaj.org/toc/1607-7938<p>The ability of hydrological models to perform in climatic conditions different from those encountered in calibration is crucial to ensure a reliable assessment of the impact of climate change on river regimes and water availability. However, most evaluation studies based on the differential split-sample test (DSST) endorsed the consensus that rainfall–runoff models lack climatic robustness. Models applied under climatologically different conditions typically exhibit substantial errors in streamflow volumes. In this technical note, we propose a new performance metric to evaluate model robustness without applying the DSST, and it can be performed with a single hydrological model calibration. The proxy for model robustness (PMR) is based on the systematic computation of model error on sliding sub-periods of the whole streamflow time series. We demonstrate that the PMR metric shows patterns similar to those obtained with the DSST for a conceptual model on a set of 377 French catchments. An analysis of the sensitivity to the length of the sub-periods shows that this length influences the values of the PMR and its equivalency with DSST biases. We recommend a range of a few years for the choice of sub-period lengths, although this should be context dependent. Our work makes it possible to evaluate the temporal transferability of any hydrological model, including uncalibrated models, at a very low computational cost.</p>P. Royer-GaspardV. AndréassianG. ThirelCopernicus PublicationsarticleTechnologyTEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Geography. Anthropology. RecreationGEnvironmental sciencesGE1-350ENHydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol 25, Pp 5703-5716 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Technology T Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	Technology T Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 P. Royer-Gaspard V. Andréassian G. Thirel Technical note: PMR – a proxy metric to assess hydrological model robustness in a changing climate
description	<p>The ability of hydrological models to perform in climatic conditions different from those encountered in calibration is crucial to ensure a reliable assessment of the impact of climate change on river regimes and water availability. However, most evaluation studies based on the differential split-sample test (DSST) endorsed the consensus that rainfall–runoff models lack climatic robustness. Models applied under climatologically different conditions typically exhibit substantial errors in streamflow volumes. In this technical note, we propose a new performance metric to evaluate model robustness without applying the DSST, and it can be performed with a single hydrological model calibration. The proxy for model robustness (PMR) is based on the systematic computation of model error on sliding sub-periods of the whole streamflow time series. We demonstrate that the PMR metric shows patterns similar to those obtained with the DSST for a conceptual model on a set of 377 French catchments. An analysis of the sensitivity to the length of the sub-periods shows that this length influences the values of the PMR and its equivalency with DSST biases. We recommend a range of a few years for the choice of sub-period lengths, although this should be context dependent. Our work makes it possible to evaluate the temporal transferability of any hydrological model, including uncalibrated models, at a very low computational cost.</p>
format	article
author	P. Royer-Gaspard V. Andréassian G. Thirel
author_facet	P. Royer-Gaspard V. Andréassian G. Thirel
author_sort	P. Royer-Gaspard
title	Technical note: PMR – a proxy metric to assess hydrological model robustness in a changing climate
title_short	Technical note: PMR – a proxy metric to assess hydrological model robustness in a changing climate
title_full	Technical note: PMR – a proxy metric to assess hydrological model robustness in a changing climate
title_fullStr	Technical note: PMR – a proxy metric to assess hydrological model robustness in a changing climate
title_full_unstemmed	Technical note: PMR – a proxy metric to assess hydrological model robustness in a changing climate
title_sort	technical note: pmr – a proxy metric to assess hydrological model robustness in a changing climate
publisher	Copernicus Publications
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d5a3f2a4063540ec89971d1bb6ee2e8b
work_keys_str_mv	AT proyergaspard technicalnotepmraproxymetrictoassesshydrologicalmodelrobustnessinachangingclimate AT vandreassian technicalnotepmraproxymetrictoassesshydrologicalmodelrobustnessinachangingclimate AT gthirel technicalnotepmraproxymetrictoassesshydrologicalmodelrobustnessinachangingclimate
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Technical note: PMR – a proxy metric to assess hydrological model robustness in a changing climate

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