Predicting current and future global distribution of black rockfish (Sebastes schlegelii) under changing climate

Changes in the marine environment, particularly climate change, can have large effects on the distribution patterns of various marine species, and alter the biodiversity, structure and functions of the affected ecosystems. Species distribution models (SDM) are tools often used to link species’ ecolo...

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Autores principales:	Yunlong Chen, Xiujuan Shan, Daniel Ovando, Tao Yang, Fangqun Dai, Xianshi Jin
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Elsevier 2021
Materias:	Habitat suitability Demersal fish Species distribution models Multi-model ensemble techniques Ecology QH540-549.5
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d61d5225dcab4702a5d13298b1f4ea78
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d61d5225dcab4702a5d13298b1f4ea782021-12-01T04:53:46ZPredicting current and future global distribution of black rockfish (Sebastes schlegelii) under changing climate1470-160X10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107799https://doaj.org/article/d61d5225dcab4702a5d13298b1f4ea782021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X21004647https://doaj.org/toc/1470-160XChanges in the marine environment, particularly climate change, can have large effects on the distribution patterns of various marine species, and alter the biodiversity, structure and functions of the affected ecosystems. Species distribution models (SDM) are tools often used to link species’ ecological niches with their environment. We applied SDM to investigate the effects of five biologically relevant climatic variables from multiple databases, including bottom temperature, bottom salinity, current velocity, depth and primary productivity, on habitat suitability of Sebastes schlegelii in the marine waters of China, Korea and Japan. Nine individual SDM and an ensemble model were used to predict the current and future distribution of S. schlegelii under alternative climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP). Results indicated that the ensemble model produced more accurate projections than any individual model. Among the environmental variables investigated, bottom temperature was the most important in determining the range of S. schlegelii. Its current distribution demonstrated that suitable habitat for S. schlegelii was mostly concentrated in the Bohai Sea, coastal areas of the central and northern Yellow Sea, and in the Sea of Japan. Negative effects from climate change on the distribution patterns of S. schlegelii were predicted to lead to varying degrees of habitat reduction, with highest estimate of 45% occurring under RCP8.5 at the end of 2100. Our results illustrate the potential effects of climate change on the future distribution of S. schlegelii populations and can assist with implementing adaptive management measures of this species.Yunlong ChenXiujuan ShanDaniel OvandoTao YangFangqun DaiXianshi JinElsevierarticleHabitat suitabilityDemersal fishSpecies distribution modelsMulti-model ensemble techniquesEcologyQH540-549.5ENEcological Indicators, Vol 128, Iss , Pp 107799- (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Habitat suitability Demersal fish Species distribution models Multi-model ensemble techniques Ecology QH540-549.5
spellingShingle	Habitat suitability Demersal fish Species distribution models Multi-model ensemble techniques Ecology QH540-549.5 Yunlong Chen Xiujuan Shan Daniel Ovando Tao Yang Fangqun Dai Xianshi Jin Predicting current and future global distribution of black rockfish (Sebastes schlegelii) under changing climate
description	Changes in the marine environment, particularly climate change, can have large effects on the distribution patterns of various marine species, and alter the biodiversity, structure and functions of the affected ecosystems. Species distribution models (SDM) are tools often used to link species’ ecological niches with their environment. We applied SDM to investigate the effects of five biologically relevant climatic variables from multiple databases, including bottom temperature, bottom salinity, current velocity, depth and primary productivity, on habitat suitability of Sebastes schlegelii in the marine waters of China, Korea and Japan. Nine individual SDM and an ensemble model were used to predict the current and future distribution of S. schlegelii under alternative climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP). Results indicated that the ensemble model produced more accurate projections than any individual model. Among the environmental variables investigated, bottom temperature was the most important in determining the range of S. schlegelii. Its current distribution demonstrated that suitable habitat for S. schlegelii was mostly concentrated in the Bohai Sea, coastal areas of the central and northern Yellow Sea, and in the Sea of Japan. Negative effects from climate change on the distribution patterns of S. schlegelii were predicted to lead to varying degrees of habitat reduction, with highest estimate of 45% occurring under RCP8.5 at the end of 2100. Our results illustrate the potential effects of climate change on the future distribution of S. schlegelii populations and can assist with implementing adaptive management measures of this species.
format	article
author	Yunlong Chen Xiujuan Shan Daniel Ovando Tao Yang Fangqun Dai Xianshi Jin
author_facet	Yunlong Chen Xiujuan Shan Daniel Ovando Tao Yang Fangqun Dai Xianshi Jin
author_sort	Yunlong Chen
title	Predicting current and future global distribution of black rockfish (Sebastes schlegelii) under changing climate
title_short	Predicting current and future global distribution of black rockfish (Sebastes schlegelii) under changing climate
title_full	Predicting current and future global distribution of black rockfish (Sebastes schlegelii) under changing climate
title_fullStr	Predicting current and future global distribution of black rockfish (Sebastes schlegelii) under changing climate
title_full_unstemmed	Predicting current and future global distribution of black rockfish (Sebastes schlegelii) under changing climate
title_sort	predicting current and future global distribution of black rockfish (sebastes schlegelii) under changing climate
publisher	Elsevier
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d61d5225dcab4702a5d13298b1f4ea78
work_keys_str_mv	AT yunlongchen predictingcurrentandfutureglobaldistributionofblackrockfishsebastesschlegeliiunderchangingclimate AT xiujuanshan predictingcurrentandfutureglobaldistributionofblackrockfishsebastesschlegeliiunderchangingclimate AT danielovando predictingcurrentandfutureglobaldistributionofblackrockfishsebastesschlegeliiunderchangingclimate AT taoyang predictingcurrentandfutureglobaldistributionofblackrockfishsebastesschlegeliiunderchangingclimate AT fangqundai predictingcurrentandfutureglobaldistributionofblackrockfishsebastesschlegeliiunderchangingclimate AT xianshijin predictingcurrentandfutureglobaldistributionofblackrockfishsebastesschlegeliiunderchangingclimate
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Predicting current and future global distribution of black rockfish (Sebastes schlegelii) under changing climate

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