Hydrological droughts in the southern Andes (40–45°S) from an ensemble experiment using CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

Abstract The decrease in freshwater input to the coastal system of the Southern Andes (40–45°S) during the last decades has altered the physicochemical characteristics of the coastal water column, causing significant environmental, social and economic consequences. Considering these impacts, the obj...

Descripción completa

Guardado en:

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Rodrigo Aguayo, Jorge León-Muñoz, René Garreaud, Aldo Montecinos
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	Nature Portfolio 2021
Materias:	Medicine R Science Q
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d66caf2c5ef74256b10e48bcf102b3c2
Etiquetas:	Agregar Etiqueta Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!

id	oai:doaj.org-article:d66caf2c5ef74256b10e48bcf102b3c2
record_format	dspace
spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d66caf2c5ef74256b10e48bcf102b3c22021-12-02T15:54:09ZHydrological droughts in the southern Andes (40–45°S) from an ensemble experiment using CMIP5 and CMIP6 models10.1038/s41598-021-84807-42045-2322https://doaj.org/article/d66caf2c5ef74256b10e48bcf102b3c22021-03-01T00:00:00Zhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-84807-4https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Abstract The decrease in freshwater input to the coastal system of the Southern Andes (40–45°S) during the last decades has altered the physicochemical characteristics of the coastal water column, causing significant environmental, social and economic consequences. Considering these impacts, the objectives were to analyze historical severe droughts and their climate drivers, and to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change in the intermediate future (2040–2070). Hydrological modelling was performed in the Puelo River basin (41°S) using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model. The hydrological response and its uncertainty were compared using different combinations of CMIP projects (n = 2), climate models (n = 5), scenarios (n = 3) and univariate statistical downscaling methods (n = 3). The 90 scenarios projected increases in the duration, hydrological deficit and frequency of severe droughts of varying duration (1 to 6 months). The three downscaling methodologies converged to similar results, with no significant differences between them. In contrast, the hydroclimatic projections obtained with the CMIP6 and CMIP5 models found significant climatic (greater trends in summer and autumn) and hydrological (longer droughts) differences. It is recommended that future climate impact assessments adapt the new simulations as more CMIP6 models become available.Rodrigo AguayoJorge León-MuñozRené GarreaudAldo MontecinosNature PortfolioarticleMedicineRScienceQENScientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-16 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	Medicine R Science Q
spellingShingle	Medicine R Science Q Rodrigo Aguayo Jorge León-Muñoz René Garreaud Aldo Montecinos Hydrological droughts in the southern Andes (40–45°S) from an ensemble experiment using CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
description	Abstract The decrease in freshwater input to the coastal system of the Southern Andes (40–45°S) during the last decades has altered the physicochemical characteristics of the coastal water column, causing significant environmental, social and economic consequences. Considering these impacts, the objectives were to analyze historical severe droughts and their climate drivers, and to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change in the intermediate future (2040–2070). Hydrological modelling was performed in the Puelo River basin (41°S) using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model. The hydrological response and its uncertainty were compared using different combinations of CMIP projects (n = 2), climate models (n = 5), scenarios (n = 3) and univariate statistical downscaling methods (n = 3). The 90 scenarios projected increases in the duration, hydrological deficit and frequency of severe droughts of varying duration (1 to 6 months). The three downscaling methodologies converged to similar results, with no significant differences between them. In contrast, the hydroclimatic projections obtained with the CMIP6 and CMIP5 models found significant climatic (greater trends in summer and autumn) and hydrological (longer droughts) differences. It is recommended that future climate impact assessments adapt the new simulations as more CMIP6 models become available.
format	article
author	Rodrigo Aguayo Jorge León-Muñoz René Garreaud Aldo Montecinos
author_facet	Rodrigo Aguayo Jorge León-Muñoz René Garreaud Aldo Montecinos
author_sort	Rodrigo Aguayo
title	Hydrological droughts in the southern Andes (40–45°S) from an ensemble experiment using CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
title_short	Hydrological droughts in the southern Andes (40–45°S) from an ensemble experiment using CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
title_full	Hydrological droughts in the southern Andes (40–45°S) from an ensemble experiment using CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
title_fullStr	Hydrological droughts in the southern Andes (40–45°S) from an ensemble experiment using CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
title_full_unstemmed	Hydrological droughts in the southern Andes (40–45°S) from an ensemble experiment using CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
title_sort	hydrological droughts in the southern andes (40–45°s) from an ensemble experiment using cmip5 and cmip6 models
publisher	Nature Portfolio
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d66caf2c5ef74256b10e48bcf102b3c2
work_keys_str_mv	AT rodrigoaguayo hydrologicaldroughtsinthesouthernandes4045sfromanensembleexperimentusingcmip5andcmip6models AT jorgeleonmunoz hydrologicaldroughtsinthesouthernandes4045sfromanensembleexperimentusingcmip5andcmip6models AT renegarreaud hydrologicaldroughtsinthesouthernandes4045sfromanensembleexperimentusingcmip5andcmip6models AT aldomontecinos hydrologicaldroughtsinthesouthernandes4045sfromanensembleexperimentusingcmip5andcmip6models
_version_	1718385478842974208

Hydrological droughts in the southern Andes (40–45°S) from an ensemble experiment using CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

Ejemplares similares