Risk assessment of possible impacts of climate change and irrigation on wheat yield and quality with a modified CERES-Wheat model

The effects of climate change on yield and quality in different climate regions have high uncertainty. Risk assessment is an effective measure to assess the seriousness of the projected impacts for decision-makers. A modified quality model was used to simulate integrated impacts of climate change, e...

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Autores principales:	Jianchao Liu, Wenbin Yao, Meijun Jiang
Formato:	article
Lenguaje:	EN
Publicado:	IWA Publishing 2021
Materias:	ceres-wheat climate change grain protein concentration irrigation wheat yield Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
Acceso en línea:	https://doaj.org/article/d6b323852f5a4a4abb95a57cb807283d
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spelling	oai:doaj.org-article:d6b323852f5a4a4abb95a57cb807283d2021-11-05T19:07:35ZRisk assessment of possible impacts of climate change and irrigation on wheat yield and quality with a modified CERES-Wheat model2040-22442408-935410.2166/wcc.2021.248https://doaj.org/article/d6b323852f5a4a4abb95a57cb807283d2021-09-01T00:00:00Zhttp://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/6/2444https://doaj.org/toc/2040-2244https://doaj.org/toc/2408-9354The effects of climate change on yield and quality in different climate regions have high uncertainty. Risk assessment is an effective measure to assess the seriousness of the projected impacts for decision-makers. A modified quality model was used to simulate integrated impacts of climate change, environment, and management on wheat yield and quality. Then, the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) was used to forecast the daily meteorological data, and the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM V5.2) was used for downscaling. The modified CERES-Wheat was combined with the forecasted meteorological data to simulate the future wheat yield and grain protein concentration (GPC). The risk to wheat yield and quality in three climatic regions in Northwest China under two climate change scenarios of the CanESM5 was assessed. The average temperature increased by 0.22–3.34 °C, and precipitation increased by 10–60 mm from 2018 to 2100. Elevated temperature and precipitation had positive effects on the yields. The risk to yield in most regions with climate change decreased by 3.8–25.1%. The risk to GPC in all regions with climate change decreased by 7.3–27.2%. Irrigation decreased the risk to yield greatly but had different effects in the three climatic regions. The risk to yield with irrigation decreased by 37.7–52.1%. In contrast to previous studies, in this study, the risk to GPC with irrigation substantially increased by 25.8–28.9% in humid regions and 3.9–8.8% in subhumid regions and decreased by 37.7–52.1% in semiarid regions. The irrigation should be discreetly applied for different climatic regions to combat climate change. HIGHLIGHTS A nitrogen-to-protein conversion factor was added to CERES-Wheat to simulate winter wheat grain protein concentration.; The combination of general circulation models and CERES-Wheat makes it possible to simulate wheat grain quality with the climate change in landscape levels.; An irrigation scenario was also used as part of a strategy for responding to climate change in different climatic regions.;Jianchao LiuWenbin YaoMeijun JiangIWA Publishingarticleceres-wheatclimate changegrain protein concentrationirrigationwheat yieldEnvironmental technology. Sanitary engineeringTD1-1066Environmental sciencesGE1-350ENJournal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 12, Iss 6, Pp 2444-2459 (2021)
institution	DOAJ
collection	DOAJ
language	EN
topic	ceres-wheat climate change grain protein concentration irrigation wheat yield Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350
spellingShingle	ceres-wheat climate change grain protein concentration irrigation wheat yield Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Jianchao Liu Wenbin Yao Meijun Jiang Risk assessment of possible impacts of climate change and irrigation on wheat yield and quality with a modified CERES-Wheat model
description	The effects of climate change on yield and quality in different climate regions have high uncertainty. Risk assessment is an effective measure to assess the seriousness of the projected impacts for decision-makers. A modified quality model was used to simulate integrated impacts of climate change, environment, and management on wheat yield and quality. Then, the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) was used to forecast the daily meteorological data, and the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM V5.2) was used for downscaling. The modified CERES-Wheat was combined with the forecasted meteorological data to simulate the future wheat yield and grain protein concentration (GPC). The risk to wheat yield and quality in three climatic regions in Northwest China under two climate change scenarios of the CanESM5 was assessed. The average temperature increased by 0.22–3.34 °C, and precipitation increased by 10–60 mm from 2018 to 2100. Elevated temperature and precipitation had positive effects on the yields. The risk to yield in most regions with climate change decreased by 3.8–25.1%. The risk to GPC in all regions with climate change decreased by 7.3–27.2%. Irrigation decreased the risk to yield greatly but had different effects in the three climatic regions. The risk to yield with irrigation decreased by 37.7–52.1%. In contrast to previous studies, in this study, the risk to GPC with irrigation substantially increased by 25.8–28.9% in humid regions and 3.9–8.8% in subhumid regions and decreased by 37.7–52.1% in semiarid regions. The irrigation should be discreetly applied for different climatic regions to combat climate change. HIGHLIGHTS A nitrogen-to-protein conversion factor was added to CERES-Wheat to simulate winter wheat grain protein concentration.; The combination of general circulation models and CERES-Wheat makes it possible to simulate wheat grain quality with the climate change in landscape levels.; An irrigation scenario was also used as part of a strategy for responding to climate change in different climatic regions.;
format	article
author	Jianchao Liu Wenbin Yao Meijun Jiang
author_facet	Jianchao Liu Wenbin Yao Meijun Jiang
author_sort	Jianchao Liu
title	Risk assessment of possible impacts of climate change and irrigation on wheat yield and quality with a modified CERES-Wheat model
title_short	Risk assessment of possible impacts of climate change and irrigation on wheat yield and quality with a modified CERES-Wheat model
title_full	Risk assessment of possible impacts of climate change and irrigation on wheat yield and quality with a modified CERES-Wheat model
title_fullStr	Risk assessment of possible impacts of climate change and irrigation on wheat yield and quality with a modified CERES-Wheat model
title_full_unstemmed	Risk assessment of possible impacts of climate change and irrigation on wheat yield and quality with a modified CERES-Wheat model
title_sort	risk assessment of possible impacts of climate change and irrigation on wheat yield and quality with a modified ceres-wheat model
publisher	IWA Publishing
publishDate	2021
url	https://doaj.org/article/d6b323852f5a4a4abb95a57cb807283d
work_keys_str_mv	AT jianchaoliu riskassessmentofpossibleimpactsofclimatechangeandirrigationonwheatyieldandqualitywithamodifiedcereswheatmodel AT wenbinyao riskassessmentofpossibleimpactsofclimatechangeandirrigationonwheatyieldandqualitywithamodifiedcereswheatmodel AT meijunjiang riskassessmentofpossibleimpactsofclimatechangeandirrigationonwheatyieldandqualitywithamodifiedcereswheatmodel
_version_	1718444070190186496

Risk assessment of possible impacts of climate change and irrigation on wheat yield and quality with a modified CERES-Wheat model

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